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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Invest 95 in Gulf
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
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- Tags
- hurricanes 2018
Here you go. The image for the Invest95.
Here is the report from today.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Joyce, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Forecaster Beven
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Joyce, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Forecaster Beven
Unless it were to stall it will not have sufficient time to intensify being so close to landfall.
Given that there are large westward moving systems to the East of it, it may very well stall and build. What does the center's current movement look like?
-Will (Dragonfly)
Big HIGH over AZ and NM pushing it South and West. Wind shear is Clockwise in the projected path, thus not strengthening.
A case in point, that high temperature surface waters are not always a problem.
Dammit Jim...
PS: The ending curves are the storm passing behind those HIGHS, kinda like Florence is doing.
Look at theses NOAA, 5 day Pressure forecasts. Note the movement of the HIGHS....
Look at the VALID dates. The first is 3 days from now showing the HIGH I mentioned over AZ is in the Gulf on Sunday, the slight Low can be seen west.
Dammit Jim....
PS: On Tues see the tiny red line between the Highs north TX NM, that is Invest 95
Look at the VALID dates. The first is 3 days from now showing the HIGH I mentioned over AZ is in the Gulf on Sunday, the slight Low can be seen west.
Dammit Jim....
PS: On Tues see the tiny red line between the Highs north TX NM, that is Invest 95
Nice
There's is a lot of very interesting information in that sequence. I'm noticing how the lows seem more mobile than the highs and how they tend to gravitate together. The prevailing winds don't seem to do a lot to push the high pressure systems eastward. They act more like standing waves in a river.
Does that seem to be a fair observation?
-Will (Dragonfly)
There's is a lot of very interesting information in that sequence. I'm noticing how the lows seem more mobile than the highs and how they tend to gravitate together. The prevailing winds don't seem to do a lot to push the high pressure systems eastward. They act more like standing waves in a river.
Does that seem to be a fair observation?
-Will (Dragonfly)
But...
HIGHs push like an Ocean Wave
LOWs are pulled in behind the Highs.
Like and end run sweep [football analogy] Lows the runner, avoids the Big Guys [Highs] and the runner actually move faster once they miss them. Dodging the next Big Guy and runs the gap between the biggums.
Jim...