Hurricane Season 2025

[JamesG161]

We are late this year but....

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NOAA Pie Chart , is always a challenge to interpret.

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Then ENSO Forecast is a KEY factor.

The high activity months are August September October or ASO, with a 53% chance of Neutral.

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Colorado State University Forecast

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HEAT of Tropical Zone is low.

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he Westerlies and Monsoons are down and Shara Dust is High

More information to be posted later.

Jim & John

 

[Rick Webb]

Two storms that begin with a vowel and have four letters.

Not a good sign for the northern gulf coast.

 

[BigEasy]

Two storms that begin with a vowel and have four letters.
Not a good sign for the northern gulf coast.

Never head of that data point; now you have me concerned!

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

Anyone ever do a follow-up of the precision of these seasonal forecasts after the season ended to see how meaningful they are?

 

[shemandr]

Not that I've seen. I feel like TWC tries to spin up storms to make the forecasts come true - or at least seem true. Yeah I get that they need to talk about something but as one professional forecaster said "... Not every convective event is going to become tropical..."

 

[jssailem]

Fair question @Don S/V ILLusion . Our follow-up will address that issue in a couple days.

 

[JamesG161]

how meaningful they are?

Yes!
This is for 2024

Jim...

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

Yes!
This is for 2024

Jim...

Unless I missed it, didnt find anything related to verification of seasonal predictions. To be clear, how do these early Summer predictions they issue compared with what actually happens?

Living in Florida, we get bombarded with weather and marketing doom and gloom storm predictions, often months in advance, aimed seemingly toward buying generators, impact glass windows, new roofs, etc… As boaters, we all appreciate the need to anticipate weather. But saying “# named storms”, “y hurricane landfalls”, seem to rely on historical averages more than science and I’m wondering how precise they are.

edit -neglected to add - anything you can do to enlighten me is much appreciated.

 

[Rick Webb]

The number of storms that actually occur is irrelevant. If there is only one storm in any particular year and it lands in your neighborhood it can be a disastrous year. If there are two dozen storm but they all land somewhere else, no big deal.

As in individual you should prepare and plan for the storm to strike right at your house.

 

[jssailem]

2024 Hurricane Review

If you remember in 2024, we identified the use of the ENSO currents in the Pacific to help forecast the 2023 Hurricane Season. There were dramatic changes being observed in these currents in late 2023 and early 2024.
This is what we said then.
Hurricane Season 2023 Analysis

Here are the recorded past ENSO conditions up to the present.

The 3 month average (JanFebMar ) for the ENSO current data showed a rapidly changing Sea Surface Temperature. Moving from a Very Strong El Niño Jan 2024 to a neutral (AprMayJun) towards an anticipated Moderate or worse La Niño for the 2024 season. The steepness of the change slope appeared to influence the forecast for a Very Active 2024 Hurricane season.

This is what NOAA said for the 2024 season.

There were Solar signs that the sun was in the middle of a Maxima state for Solar Cycle 25. The sun’s solar activity affects the heat content of the ocean. There were fewer sunspots observed which suggests a reduction in solar activity. This had an impact on the formation of storms due to a lack of accumulated heat in the Atlantic.

In hindsight the 2024 forecasted storms did not develop. The ENSO currents never got out of neutral. The forecasted Above normal 17 to 25 named storms turned out to be 18. Seven of the storms were just Tropical Storms, Six reached hurricane strength and Five were classified as Major Hurricanes. Three hurricanes came ashore on the Gulf Coast of Florida. All three became hurricanes in the Gulf just north of the west end of Cuba. This is a little unusual.

The conditions for 2025 are unsettled. We will be watching the West coast of Africa to see if the neutral ENSO condition in the Pacific impacts the Monsoon development across Central Africa. If they are strong then the possibility of tropical storm development in the Atlantic becomes a real issue.

 

[BigEasy]

The number of storms that actually occur is irrelevant. If there is only one storm in any particular year and it lands in your neighborhood it can be a disastrous year. If there are two dozen storm but they all land somewhere else, no big deal.

That's my operating philosophy also.

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

The number of storms that actually occur is irrelevant. If there is only one storm in any particular year and it lands in your neighborhood it can be a disastrous year. If there are two dozen storm but they all land somewhere else, no big deal.

As in individual you should prepare and plan for the storm to strike right at your house.

Yes, we all would agree, however, if you are responding to me, its not a “my neighborhood” question.

NOAA spends a great deal of effort making pre-season annual forecasts. Every year, they announce how many storms are predicted. They even go so far as to parse that total into how many affect land, how many are major storms, etc…

I think it’s a reasonable question to ask, particularly as they are whining about budget cuts, how precise these forecasts actually are.

 

[Rick Webb]

I believe there is an argument to be made that funding is precisely why there is a concerted effort on the part of the National Hurricane Center and to some degree NOAA to get as much media coverage as possible before there is even a storm in the foreseeable future.

Can't fault them for doing so though, that is the way the budget game is played. Unfortunately, it comes with the unintended consequence of frightening the population again and again so that they become lackadaisical and then vulnerable as they are ill-prepared.

 

[Davidasailor26]

The number of storms that actually occur is irrelevant. If there is only one storm in any particular year and it lands in your neighborhood it can be a disastrous year. If there are two dozen storm but they all land somewhere else, no big deal.

As in individual you should prepare and plan for the storm to strike right at your house.

The number may be irrelevant on an individual level, but still valuable on a regional level and across years and decades. Although a forecast for an active year doesn’t necessarily mean your house will be hit with a major storm, it does suggest that organizations that need to account for a storm somewhere (like insurance companies or emergency response agencies) may need to plan accordingly.

To strain an analogy - when a football team is playing at home they have about a 55% win percentage. That definitely doesn’t mean if you go to one home game you’ll see a win, but sports books and betters will play those odds over time to try to win.

 

[Davidasailor26]

Yes, we all would agree, however, if you are responding to me, its not a “my neighborhood” question.

NOAA spends a great deal of effort making pre-season annual forecasts. Every year, they announce how many storms are predicted. They even go so far as to parse that total into how many affect land, how many are major storms, etc…

I think it’s a reasonable question to ask, particularly as they are whining about budget cuts, how precise these forecasts actually are.

I found this pretty good analysis, though it dates to 2010 - https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/167939.pdf. The results suggest at the time NOAA’s predictions were better than other groups, though not dramatically so.

NOAA does provide detailed data on the accuracy of its individual storm predictions at National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification. The trends show good improvement over time, for example reducing the 48 hour forecast accuracy from 200+ miles in the 1970’s to about 50 miles now. I can’t find a similar analysis for their climate prediction.

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

I found this pretty good analysis, though it dates to 2010 - https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/167939.pdf. The results suggest at the time NOAA’s predictions were better than other groups, though not dramatically so.

NOAA does provide detailed data on the accuracy of its individual storm predictions at National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification. The trends show good improvement over time, for example reducing the 48 hour forecast accuracy from 200+ miles in the 1970’s to about 50 miles now. I can’t find a similar analysis for their climate prediction.

Improvement in short term forecast accuracy has definitely improved largely because the models which NOAA uses have become more sophisticate. I’m not sure how much credit for that goes to NOAA or the modelers.

Asto my original question, I appreciate the digging people have done as have I and it seems there are no data that I can find showing how accurate these seasonal predictions are. I guess if they were proud of the accuracy, they would emphasize it somewhere.

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

I believe there is an argument to be made that funding is precisely why there is a concerted effort on the part of the National Hurricane Center and to some degree NOAA to get as much media coverage as possible before there is even a storm in the foreseeable future.

Can't fault them for doing so though, that is the way the budget game is played. Unfortunately, it comes with the unintended consequence of frightening the population again and again so that they become lackadaisical and then vulnerable as they are ill-prepared.

Yea, I was in government once. It’s always the fire and police or the EMS that they use as a poster child for budget arguments rather than all the ancillary work of far less value that they suggest will be sacrificed.

 

[Davidasailor26]

Improvement in short term forecast accuracy has definitely improved largely because the models which NOAA uses have become more sophisticate. I’m not sure how much credit for that goes to NOAA or the modelers.

One of the primary models is the GFS, operated by NOAA, so I think they get at least some of the credit there. The other major models include ones from the ECMWF, supported by European nations, and the CMC, funded by Canada. NOAA interprets the data from all of the models to generate the forecast.

 

[Davidasailor26]

Asto my original question, I appreciate the digging people have done as have I and it seems there are no data that I can find showing how accurate these seasonal predictions are. I guess if they were proud of the accuracy, they would emphasize it somewhere.

Or maybe they figure publishing the data just to market themselves wouldn’t be worth the taxpayer’s money spent on it. The 2010 report, as well as some less scientific charts I found when googling for it, suggests they don’t have anything to hide in terms of their accuracy.

 

[Gene Neill]

Has there ever been a year when FEWER than the average number of storms were predicted? I can't recall one.