2015 was one (see Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook ). There may have been other recent ones; I just pulled that one based on the graph at NOAA's Estimated Hurricane Range Compared to Actual Hurricanes In The Atlantic
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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Hurricane Season 2025
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 23,011
Look at 2003 through 2007. Prediction versus results.
2006 and 2007 were active volcano years. The eruptions may have had an impact on the atmosphere and hurricane activity.
These were years of year to year swings in the ENSO current.
One needs to acknowledge a possible bias in searching for a causal/effect relationship.
At the same time the above are significant events of size that can have a global impact. They deserve more exploration.
2006 and 2007 were active volcano years. The eruptions may have had an impact on the atmosphere and hurricane activity.
These were years of year to year swings in the ENSO current.
One needs to acknowledge a possible bias in searching for a causal/effect relationship.
At the same time the above are significant events of size that can have a global impact. They deserve more exploration.
I wonder if it is the models themselves or more modern computers which have the power to incorporate more of the variables to give a better prediction?
Probably a combination of both.
On the topic of correlation of seasonal predictions with actual occurrences, it appears there is a wide range of results. In some years, the predictions are quite accurate; in others, the disparity is quite large.
Statistically, that would mirror the same result from throwing darts while blindfolded.
In 2024 they predicted an 85% chance of an above normal season - https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season.
They predicted 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. The actual totals were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. All totals were inside the predicted range and above average of 14/7/3.
2024 Hurricane Forecasts
But they made their ranges so wide , so it fell in range.
They scared everyone in 2024. Compare their Pie charts 2024 vs 2025.
Jim...
PS: John and I reviewed the science of 2024 season, but only posted some of it in this Thread.
But they made their ranges so wide , so it fell in range.
They scared everyone in 2024. Compare their Pie charts 2024 vs 2025.
Jim...
PS: John and I reviewed the science of 2024 season, but only posted some of it in this Thread.
How meaningful are those predicted numbers?
A storm that lands in North Carolina or Texas does not mean much to those in Florida. Storms that do not even make landfall are fairly meaningless to most of us.
Every person, family, municipality, county, and state need to prepare as though the one single storm of that season is landing in their front yard.
A storm that lands in North Carolina or Texas does not mean much to those in Florida. Storms that do not even make landfall are fairly meaningless to most of us.
Every person, family, municipality, county, and state need to prepare as though the one single storm of that season is landing in their front yard.