• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Rosa East Pacific

JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This formed in the 2018 East Pacific active area again. This is area that has threatened Hawaii with storms all season.

Hurricane Rosa [Roh zuh Spanish] is modeling a curve back toward Baja California.

Rosa will intensify!

Dammit Jim...
 
G

glaufman

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May 23, 2016
217
O'Day 1984 23 Island Park, NY
Yes but looks like it'll weaken by the time it makes landfall... At least at the moment... If you're in the area of baja or even as far north as San Diego i'd watch that one... Come to think of it I travel to SD often enough I'll watch her myself
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Rosa is full of moisture.
The land area that could be affected is very Arid and not accustomed to massive rainfall.
Flash flooding will be a major concern.
Jim...
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Rosa is a well formed hurricane to hit Baja California. The upper part of the Gulf of California will get a big storm surge.
Looks like Arid Arizona will get a lot of rain on Tuesday.

Since this is not normal Hurricane hit area, prepare yourselves and boats NOW!.

Dammit Jim...
 
Brian D

Brian D

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Feb 17, 2006
5,274
Lancer 27PS MCB Camp Pendleton KF6BL
Looks like we will see some of the rain associated with Rosa. The track put Rosa on the northern border of Mexico and south San Diego. Looking at the rainfall maps we will miss most of it. Being between LA and San Diego, we always seem to miss the good rain fall. However, we do get some really good downpours.

This should be interesting to watch. Winds will pickup an no doubt we will get the usual Coast Guard warnings. We do need the rain though. But not like NC and SC.
 
jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Hang on to your raincoat Brian. It may become a double header. Sergio is brewing south of the Baja. Wanting to come and visit.
 
Charles Erwin

Charles Erwin

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Jan 30, 2012
1,123
Nor'Sea 27 "Kiwanda" Portland/ Anacortes
NOAA predicts local floodings possible in Phoenix area Mon and Tues due to Rosa. So even the desert is not immune from tropical events. Anyone want pictures?
 
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Brian D

Brian D

.
Feb 17, 2006
5,274
Lancer 27PS MCB Camp Pendleton KF6BL
Sergio looks like it is heading west. So as of right now, no worries.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Brian D said:
Sergio looks like it is heading west.
Click to expand
Sergio in going to stop and wait.

Rosa it being pinched between HIGHs and will be obliterated quickly. Most of the rain will be on the East Side.

Charles Erwin said:
NOAA predicts local floodings possible in Phoenix area Mon and Tues due to Rosa
Click to expand
The problem is DRY land, not accustomed to heavy rain. Flash floods are the real problem in ARID areas.
Driving on old back roads would not be advisable. They have the least maintained bridges.
Jim...
 
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