• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Michael old Invest 91

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We have be seeing this potential for a few days now. Heavy topical moisture in the warm South Caribbean is alive and well.
____
Invest 91 appears to be close tracking to the earlier TS Gordon.
In will be fast moving, but should be watched closely.
The Gulf of Mexico is still warm.

We will know much more, when the first Hurricane Hunter flight explores Invest 91.
They will probable fly late Monday the 8th, when it enters the Gulf off the Yucatan.

Dammit Jim...

PS: Tracking by ECMF model is shown to affect Gulf coasts of LA, MS, AL, and FL
 
Jun 21, 2004
2,532
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Here we go again! Just put the genoa back on the furler this past Wednesday, following the TS after Labor Day.
Looks like summer and storm season will be around a bit longer. I actually planned on hauling out the boat, this morning, for routine bottom work; however, I postponed it until next weekend because of the high probability of rain for several days with the approaching low pressure system.
 
Last edited:
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Just put the genoa back on the furler
I just cleaned and protected all my Dodger windows. Was going to put them back Monday.:rolleyes:

If you use the nice weather app above, NOAA indicates in Gulfport MS, 20 knot winds early Wednesday morning. Barometric Pressure dropping Tuesday.
If that is true, discounting the rain, nice sailing time.

I am waiting on the next ECMF model run.
Dammit Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It is looking like TD #14 will emerge between the Yucatan and Cuba. ECMF model has it being sucked in behind the HIGH pressure system centered over the Virgina's now. This High is fast moving and so will be TD #14

This storm may get sucked back into the Atlantic.
Dammit Jim...
 
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Sep 14, 2014
1,251
Catalina 22 Pensacola, Florida
NHC already had it named as Micheal and will be hurricane at landfall in northern gulf probably at big bend area of Florida Panhandle.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Micheal
The Hurricane Hunters are in the Storm now. It is a low level flight
Unfortunately, there is a eye beginning to form. Winds are in the North Eastern quadrant, peak 50 knots.

This area still has a lot of Solar Heat build up. Fast moving is what we need.

The latest ECMF Model shows a Gulf Coast hit is 96 hours.

The movement of that HIGH pressure now suggest a curve back into the Atlantic too.

Hurricane winds, if at all, will be on the South East part of the storm. Why?
Cuba will shear the winds on the East.
Dammit Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
HH's flight done.
recon_AF305-0114A-CYCLONE.png

The Reds are near Hurricane winds.
Note the tip of Cuba in upper right of Image.
Dammit Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The big HIGH that was over Virginia over the weekend is the BIG dog.

Not only is it Pulling Michael behind that front, it is also responsible for Pushing Leslie, finally, toward Europe and Northern Africa.

Northern Florida is on the path by ECMF [model not shown in NOAA models].
Dammit Jim...

PS: Hurricane Hunters, who are getting the only detailed measurements, are on Mission #3 now.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Z62A_2018_10_09_1210.jpg
Michael
is very compact and moving fast across the Gulf.

This is a NOAA data buoy the direct path and has a CAMERA too.!
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

It might give you an idea of what sailing in a Hurricane might be like.
plot_wind_pres.php-5.png

The water depth under this buoy is 10,663 feet. This a lot of Anchor chain!:yikes:
Wave height with just ≈35 knot steady winds.
plot_met.php-3.png

:yikes::yikes:

____
The Hurricane Hunters are flying out of Keelser AF in Biloxi so they are making many flights. Mission #9 is in the storm now.
This is #8 which shows N and NE as the storm surge side of Michael.
recon_NOAA2-0914A-MICHAEL-2.png

Tight small eye wall area with 968 mb as the eye center. [not always the Space view spot]
Notice in the lower right 046 SHIP, that is a approved data station Ship that took safe harbor in Cuba!

Northern Florida braces for Michael.

Dammit Jim...