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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Barry <TS Barry < PC2 < Invest 92L

Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
By Wednesday July 10, it will be forming several hundred miles South of Panama City FL.
But there is a HIGH pressure front to Whack it, and move it quickly toward LA & MS.

As normal, the strongest winds are on the North East Quadrant.
It will be probably named as a tropical storm before landfall on ≈ July 13
Maybe wind gusts to 50mph.

Gulf Coast sailors have time to prepare...
Jim...
 
Last edited:
Jun 21, 2004
1,245
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Maybe wind gusts to 50mph.
Gulf Coast sailors have time to prepare...
Jim...
Jim,
Thanks for heads up. Hopefully this will be a non event that will negate the need for removing canvas.
Actually, we could use some rain and relief from this awful heat & humidity.
Will definitely keep an eye on it.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
There was another one about a week back, that ran alone the Texas coast, but never got attention.

This year so far, it High Pressure pulsing from the Pacific Northwest prevents formations.
5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

Five Day forecast 10th-14th.
Not animated but you see all the Highs flowing NW-SE. And the L get "whacked" on the 12th.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,361
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
This what the projected storm looks like on Saturday.
NewOrleans Storm.JPG
Not a pretty sight. Looks like preparation for this storm would be advised unless the High Pressures that have maintained the nice weather come through and disrupt this one out in the gulf. With Gulf water temps at 86F 30C there is a bit of energy for this storm.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
That has changed since I looked. Perhaps the storm will stall as it goes around that HIGH on Saturday 13th.

If the Hurricanes Hunter fly out Thursday we well know for sure.
Jim...

PS: I guess disrupts my sail from Gulfport MS to the Keys:doh:
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,361
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
Only if you want to live forever and not become a statistic that the CG will have to chase down and rescue..
Hell you might make it. It might be a great ride. Might push you to Cuba.
 
Nov 6, 2006
8,455
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Jim, looking at the Gulf Loop Current, as soon as the storm goes west, ya can make some tome going south!
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Gulf Loop Current
That pushes hot Caribbean Waters to Central Gulf, before the Northern shoreline pushes it back around the tip of Florida.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-75.38,28.43,1186

The Hurricane intensifier and fuel is HEAT content more than Surface Temperatures.
I look at this graphic , and to your point, very on point.
.
ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Note the "hot spot" as the central spot on the Gulf Loop in the Gulf.
Also note the wide white area along the coast as the Colder Mississippi River water dump has cooled down the Gulf Shore line, and even the Atlantic Coast gets in the Allegheny Mountains East from all the winter rains/snows.

The Good News is...
This Disturbance is fast moving, reducing its time to strengthen, and that High did "whack" it.

The Bad News is...
It appears to be skimming along the Coast on it Westward Trek. Normally the Low would make and "end run" and follow behind the High pressure front. [as shown on my post#4 Sat-Sun NOAA Graphic]
Longer time in Gulf, more intensification possibility.
____
Too early to predict, Thursday will tell the story.

Still time to prepare along the Gulf Coast...
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
INVESTitgation 92L just kicked in for models to start tracking it.

HIGH pressure is Whacking it.
Some are saying it will be a summer time squall.

Keep on with the preparations and keep your "weather eye" out....
Jim..
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
If the Hurricanes Hunter fly out Thursday we well know for sure.
They are scheduled for a flight this afternoon.

That means this non tropical storm needs real internal storm data and not just Satellite data.

After their flight, we will know chances of intensification, and if the "spaghetti models" have any meaning.

The Good news...
Fast moving over cooler waters along the coast.
Jim...

PS: Non Tropical means it didn't form in the Tropics. Why important? Tropics Contain a lot of Heat.

PSS: This disturbance actually started over Georgia, on land, on Monday.
 
Last edited:
Jun 21, 2004
1,245
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Jim,
Tropical tidbits is a great resource; hadn’t seen it previously. Definitely provides in depth analysis. No sensationalizing; just the facts.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
First Hurricane Hunter mission into PC#2
recon_NOAA2-02BBA-PTC02.png

No eye wall, not much wind, not a named storm, yet.
Highest winds speeds on their flight path, at sea surface was at 12 knots.

Look at their flight path [set by satellite info] and not the satellite cloud cover.
Jim...

PS: Look at the spaghetti model runs after 8 pm EST tonight for more reliable info.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
what are the red numbers? Wind direction?
No, the orange/red numbers are over the Yellow numbers. Yellow ones are official NOAA weather stations, buoys or official weather stations aboard ships at sea.
I am really not sure about red ones.

My guess is... elapsed time into the flight, that the last data from the Yellow stations reported into NOAA.
Synchronization , so to speak.
Jim...
 
Nov 6, 2006
8,455
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Jim, looks like yall are in the clear except for high water.. I just got in from doubling lines and adding a couple of spring lines.. I don't think our marina on the north shore and up the bayou, will see a lot of wind, but probably looking at 4-5 feet of water over normal. Home in Baton Rouge, we'll probably see a lot of rain and some wind.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,089
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
My guess is...
About red/orange numbers... was WRONG!:redface::redface:

So I couldn't fine any seemingly similar weather readings.o_O
So... for SBO users of the Graphics of HH Recon flights, I emailed the Source of it!

TropicalTidbits.com

The Provider of that website is "Levi Cowan".
He graciously responded to my email with the answer on the orange numbers...

"Hi James,

Thanks for the compliment! The orange numbers are the pressure reading at each ground-based station in the same format that you would see it on a surface map. For example, "124" = 1012.4mb.

Hope this helps,
Levi"

A short bio from Levi...
"I have been tracking tropical cyclones closely since 2002, and am currently a graduate meteorology student at Florida State University."

All I can add, is what I told him...
"You [Levi] have the best scientific information and discussion available that I have found."

Check out all of his great weather analysis!:clap::clap:
Jim...