• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

East Pacific Hurricanes Activity Wild!

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Daniel is now tropical with Emilia and Fabio potentials in the next 14 days.

Southern Mexico and the Isthmus of Panama is still the area to watch.

Most seem to track NW so sailing to Tahiti soon is not wise.
Jim....
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Fabio is now Hurricane in the East Pacific.
_____
We almost spun up a Tropical Storm South of Biloxi, MS. Half on land, Half in Gulf, but Whew... Nope.

There is possibility for a Storm around Bermuda, but not likely to form up.

All action has still around the Isthmus of Panama.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Two more storms are going to spin up in about 10-12 days off the Isthmus of Panama.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
All of the First Third of 2018 Season has been in this area.

They are now forming a bit west of the Isthmus of Panama tracking WNW.

By Friday August 3, a strong storm should be forming and track a lot closer to South West Mexico.
Probably a Hurricane south of Manzanillo MX next weekend.

It looks like it will track closer the MX Coast, than the earlier storms.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
By Friday August 3
Now named HECTOR and should pass South of Hawaii.

But...
They are spinning up now South of Mexico. At least 3 disturbances.
two_pac_5d0.png

"Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located about 275 miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become significantly better defined this morning."

The right most has a good chance of tracking NNWest and will probably named by Tuesday Aug 7.
Jim...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,996
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
You called it again. :dancing:
Just heard the radio weather report your storm heading towards Hawaii. :clap:
You have a fall back job waiting :biggrin:
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
You called it again.
Nah!
It was your [ @jssailem ] linking me to Rufus, a local forecaster, in the Pacific North West. Rufus was calling storm formations 20 days ahead.
What the Heck?:confused:

I did a lot of searching for what Rufus was using to forecast that far out.

I found a few data spots that combine the Steering winds with the Sahara Desert winds to see the potentials for the Northern Hemisphere counterclockwise spins. There is a new model called Genesis, that is experimental, forecasting too. Genesis was not used in my "sticking my neck out" prediction.:badbad:
____
The Right most storm potential from my post#5 is now tagged...
Tropical Depression Eleven-E soon to be named "ILEANA"
Jim...

PS: The next Pacific storm will be named.....
"JOHN":yeah:
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,996
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
The next Pacific storm will be named.....
"JOHN":yeah:
Now we are talking. May it be a big and bold storm that makes big surfing waves for the California boys. And plays nice with the natives when near land.