Corona virus

Jim26m

Jim26m

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Apr 3, 2019
579
Macgregor 26M Mobile AL
Agree that the percentage of deaths per number infected may be low. However, the number of infected may be astronomical if folks aren't careful. So, the body count could get pretty large even at a low death percentage. I'm probably in the 4% group, which is better than my odds are on most normal days of my life, but I'm still being very careful. I don't want to be clogging up the health system when it's stressed. Our two oldest kids are in medical fields. They've had a few friends get it, with minor issues. The first will be cleared to go back after about 7 days (ER doc). Their hospitals are keeping some doctors at home so they will be available to replace the ones that get sick.

Down here, there has been very little testing. There is no telling how widespread it is. It is the height of allergy season, so unless you were in a high risk group, you could have it and not know it due to being miserable with allergies anyway.

It is by no means an automatic death sentence. It is more of a Healthcare supply crisis, that we all have to help mitigate.

My boat is on a trailer in the garage and the ramp is still open. So, sailing is still available to me. We are having our groceries delivered and other items set for pick-up. We can walk in the neighborhood and visit outside at 6-10 ft separation. Our church is meeting via live stream. Communicating with my grandkids via FaceTime vs seeing them in person is probably the worst of it. Also, my mom is in a nursing home and I'm not allowed to visit her as her nursing home is locked down to protect the "high risk" occupants.

Really, it's just a big inconvenience so far. A lot of our issues are due to folks hoarding supplies, which I'm hoping will stop soon. There has got to be a limit to the amount of toilet paper, rice, and canned goods you can cram into a house and still have room to walk!
 
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capta

capta

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Jun 4, 2009
4,774
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
1soonsailing said:
Well it turns out that im self sufficient on the boat since I've been preparing for this for the last 6 years. The only thing would be water, and im working on it. The idea would be to stay in the boat without touching land down there until the all clear. Im concerned about boat patrols harassing me, ect.
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I really do not see any of any of us in the high risk group being able to sustain ourselves independently for the 12 to 18 months it will be before a vaccine can get the c-19 under control. I think you are fooling yourself if you believe otherwise.
We still need deliveries of fresh food and other perishables, not to mention fuel for a genset and/or cooking, for those of us with watermakers and refrigeration which can can cut down deliveries to the boat to once a week, therefor less contact with others.
As it is, when our deliveries arrive, all the fruit and vegetables are washed with soap and water on deck before being brought below. Boxes are unloaded and all grocery items are either washed or sprayed with a bleach spray.
I see no sense in quarantining one's self if one doesn't do these sorts of preventative measures with things being handled by those ashore who could be exposed to the virus.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,425
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
capta said:
all the fruit and vegetables are washed with soap and water on deck before being brought below.
Click to expand
When I lived in Mexico they use a special treatment liquid [ drop wise] to soak all fruit and vegetable [including lettuce]
for 15 minutes. Did the trick of killing all bacteria and virus.

This is same stuff in tablet form. Dissolve a few in your Rinse water and soak a bit more.
https://www.amazon.com/Potable-Aqua...PmA&hsa_cr_id=6220240160501&ref_=sb_s_sparkle

Good for assured potable water safety too. We have some on our boat.
Jim...
 
capta

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,774
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
JamesG161 said:
When I lived in Mexico they use a special treatment liquid [ drop wise] to soak all fruit and vegetable [including lettuce]
for 15 minutes. Did the trick of killing all bacteria and virus.

This is same stuff in tablet form. Dissolve a few in your Rinse water and soak a bit more.
https://www.amazon.com/Potable-Aqua...PmA&hsa_cr_id=6220240160501&ref_=sb_s_sparkle

Good for assured potable water safety too. We have some on our boat.
Jim...
Click to expand
I wish we had some on our boat!
 
jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,110
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Dammit Jim. It looks like a good idea, but.... the bottle says "Bacterial and Germicide". Nothing about Viral contamination. Looks like it would reduce the exposure to E.Coli
 
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Leeward Rail

Leeward Rail

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Mar 20, 2015
3,095
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
Head Sail said:
People hoarding toilet paper is beyond me. It's not a gastrointestinal pandemic. Maybe I'm blinded by the male perspective.
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My wife sent me a link of some US dad doing a math lesson on it… and ranting about the stupidity.
He calculated that each of his family members had to crap almost 200 times a day, over a long time, using 20 sheets at a time, to use up a costco package. :biggrin:

My wife says that ladies use more than men, but not THAT much.
IMO You can simply attribute it to a lack of math skills and general stupidity.
My sister mentioned a story she saw, about the psychology of it, when it first happened… May have been this one:
www.cnn.com

The psychology behind why toilet paper, of all things, is the latest coronavirus panic buy

Toilet paper does not offer special protection against the virus. It's not considered a staple of impending emergencies, like milk and bread are. So why are people buying up rolls more quickly than they can be restocked? There are several reasons.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

———-
As for why the mortality math seems weird…
I'll see if i can throw my uneducated understanding out there for discussion.

As I understand it… AND I AM NOT A VIROLOGIST, OR A STATISTICIAN in any way.

Unfortunately we don't know the actual number of people with the virus, mortality etc.
As time goes on, they end up with more solid data, and less need for initial guesstimates likely based on things like the previous corona virus epidemics.
Even then, the hard data from other countries like China, Singapore, etc. would likely be hard to simply apply to other countries or even regions. Age, Health, Environmental factors obviously play a role. Even previous exposure to other virii ? who knows.
China's longer term stats, show that men were more at risk, but that may simply be due to the fact that the majority of Chinese men smoke, where Chinese women don't. Even the initial data that only older people are at risk is showing some flaws when applied in other countries.

So the improving data is one factor why calculations would be varying over time…

How do we know the true number of people who have have the virus ?
A medical officer I know, said there is multiplier +/- that they are using to calculate the worst/best scenario.
Based on "historical" data they somehow came up with a range of possible multipliers to guesstimate the actual number of infections (vs known infections)

So they have a multiplier… Can I simply use today's known death and known cases to calculate ?
No…
Someone that tests positive with the virus today, generally wouldn't die or recover today.
So today's deaths are really related to the reported positive cases from awhile ago.
This is a BIG difference when you consider the exponential rate of infections.

To get a mortality % you would likely need to do something like
("Todays deaths" ÷ ("known cases from 10 days ago" X "actual cases estimate multipler") ) x 100


Or something like that…


As has been mentioned, if this spreads too far and too fast, even more people (even those with other medical problems) will die because hospitals will be overwhelmed.

For some interesting reading, check out the wikipedia page for the 1918 Flu Pandemic with it's linked references. It puts small mortality rate vs high number of infections in perspective. And at that time there were less people and less mobility.

It is interesting though… I don't think i've looked at so many medical journals and science papers in my life. I just wish the world's politicians would do the same… hehe

A well stocked boat, anchored by a fertile deserted island, DOES sound good. Where's Mary-Ann ? ;)
 
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Captain Larry-DH

Captain Larry-DH

.
Jun 14, 2010
2,097
Robertson & Caine 2017 Leopard 40 CT
JamesG161 said:
When I lived in Mexico they use a special treatment liquid [ drop wise] to soak all fruit and vegetable [including lettuce]
for 15 minutes. Did the trick of killing all bacteria and virus.

This is same stuff in tablet form. Dissolve a few in your Rinse water and soak a bit more.
https://www.amazon.com/Potable-Aqua...PmA&hsa_cr_id=6220240160501&ref_=sb_s_sparkle

Good for assured potable water safety too. We have some on our boat.
Jim...
Click to expand
I have to wonder if drinking water treated with that stuff also kills the friendly bacteria in your gastrointestinal system? If so, it will also impair your immune system. if you’re reading this and don’t understand how this happens, do a google search on: microbiome immune system. Maintaining a healthy gut microbiome is a key factor in fighting illness.
 
dLj

dLj

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Mar 23, 2017
3,425
Belliure 41 Sailing back to the Chesapeake
I love statistics. I typically sum it up in the following manner:

In some imaginary country, the government has shown clearly that everyone in the population gets to eat 1 chicken per day. That number is based on the number of chickens sold and the number of people in the country. But I ate two chickens today. So somebody ate 0 chickens. Boy, I'd hate to be that person...

dj
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,425
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Captain Larry-DH said:
I have to wonder if drinking water treated with that stuff also kills the friendly bacteria in your gastrointestinal system?
Click to expand
Well probably no more than Chlorinated drinking water, but those purifiers are for emergency situations on my boat.
And a gallon a day of treated water, plus normal meal should be ok.

These chemicals are oxidizers and if used per dosage on package Oxidize the bacteria in the water.
Therefore excess will react with your food.

Jim...
 
Captain Larry-DH

Captain Larry-DH

.
Jun 14, 2010
2,097
Robertson & Caine 2017 Leopard 40 CT
JamesG161 said:
probably no more than Chlorinated drinking water
Click to expand
If you Google for "Chlorinated drinking water AND microbiome" you'll find a lot of information about scientific research. You'll also find a lot of opinion. (The problem is to separate the two.) Regardless, there's solid evidence that it does inhibit the gut flora. That's bad for your immune system.
Best to use a charcoal filter to filter tap water and reduce chlorine intake as much as possible.
 
Head Sail

Head Sail

.
Nov 13, 2013
723
Catalina 34 Tacoma
dLj said:
I love statistics. I typically sum it up in the following manner:

In some imaginary country, the government has shown clearly that everyone in the population gets to eat 1 chicken per day. That number is based on the number of chickens sold and the number of people in the country. But I ate two chickens today. So somebody ate 0 chickens. Boy, I'd hate to be that person...

dj
Click to expand
That sound about right. I came across a guy buying several large toilet paper packages and asked "why are you buying so much toilet paper" He said "I don't know but everyone else is too". And the self was left empty.
 
gary16188

gary16188

.
Jun 3, 2004
41
Catalina 34MKII 1717 Merritt Island, FL
1soonsailing said:
Hi
Anyone has news/ or idea of whats going on in tbe Florida Keys regarding the darn virus? I mean can a person sail down there to weather it out while things get back to what use to be normal after 9/11?
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The last I heard the keys were closed as of Sunday 3/22/2020. No hotels are open. Not sure about the marinas.
 
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