Corona virus

M

Member 131497

Hi
Anyone has news/ or idea of whats going on in tbe Florida Keys regarding the darn virus? I mean can a person sail down there to weather it out while things get back to what use to be normal after 9/11?
 

Joe

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Jun 1, 2004
7,999
Catalina 27 Mission Bay, San Diego
Closing down tonight.... this is serious... stay home, wash your hands. Listen to the medical experts. Listen to Gov. disantis…

 
Apr 16, 2017
841
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside

Reuters has interesting map of the US pandemic. The bubble plots are beginning to trace the Interstate system. If you made it to the Keys, you would probably already have it on your vehicle interior controls.
 
Jan 19, 2010
12,362
Hobie 16 & Rhodes 22 Skeeter Charleston
The math in that Reuter’s article does not add up. If you add the number of deaths to the number recovered (sum of resolved cases) and then divide the deaths by resolved you get 12.2% as a death rate. The article cites 4.3%. But 4.3% is the number you get when you divide deaths by total cases and most of those people are still sick.
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore

SFS

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Aug 18, 2015
2,065
Currently Boatless Okinawa
Can someone post a direct link to the map, or the article with the map. I couldn't find it on Reuters site, or with google search.
 
May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
Same as Ruskin. There are no impediments yet to prevent anyone from sailing down there. Would anticipate the Grocery stores may be a little emptier than Miami and the locals may not appreciate another mouth. Probably best to stay at home .
 
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Likes: capta
Jan 4, 2010
1,037
Farr 30 San Francisco
I think the math is more or less as follows, death rate is about 0.7% in the event medical care/ventilators are available, in the event that this is not available then the death rate is more like 7% and higher for old farts. NYC has 5000 more cases today than yesterday another few days of that and it is full on "who lives and who dies" triage. Wash you hands and isolate yourselves as much as possible.
 
Jan 19, 2010
12,362
Hobie 16 & Rhodes 22 Skeeter Charleston
I think the math is more or less as follows, death rate is about 0.7% in the event medical care/ventilators are available, in the event that this is not available then the death rate is more like 7% and higher for old farts. NYC has 5000 more cases today than yesterday another few days of that and it is full on "who lives and who dies" triage. Wash you hands and isolate yourselves as much as possible.
So... what data are you using to come up with these numbers?
0.7%?
 
Jan 19, 2010
12,362
Hobie 16 & Rhodes 22 Skeeter Charleston
Can someone post a direct link to the map, or the article with the map. I couldn't find it on Reuters site, or with google search.
It is in post#4
 

SFS

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Aug 18, 2015
2,065
Currently Boatless Okinawa
The link in post #4 is to the Reuters site, as you can tell when reading the link itself. The site is huge. So let me clarify: I have navigated around the Reuters site, with no luck. I have searched the site, and I have conducted a google search of the web, again with no luck. If someone could post a DIRECT link to the specific map, or the specific article that contains the map, I would greatly appreciate it.
 
Apr 16, 2017
841
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
The link in post #4 is to the Reuters site, as you can tell when reading the link itself. The site is huge. So let me clarify: I have navigated around the Reuters site, with no luck. I have searched the site, and I have conducted a google search of the web, again with no luck. If someone could post a DIRECT link to the specific map, or the specific article that contains the map, I would greatly appreciate it.
I should have placed a screen print. My bad.

The link in the post us easier to navigate on the big screen. This link is for phones. It might look like an ad.

 

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Likes: Will Gilmore
May 29, 2018
457
Canel 25 foot Shiogama, japan
I mean can a person sail down there to weather it out while things get back to what use to be normal after 9/11?

Hi 1soonsailing.
What is your timeline ?
12 to 18 months?
 
Oct 19, 2017
7,732
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
can a person sail down there to weather it out while things get back to what use to be normal after 9/11?
If you take 2 weeks at sea to sail there, you can legitimately claim to have already quarantined.

The problem I would be concerned with, the Keys, especially Key West, are densely populated with people who aren't use to social isolation at all.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Jan 4, 2010
1,037
Farr 30 San Francisco
So... what data are you using to come up with these numbers?
0.7%?

If we look at the cruise ship that was 8/712 population I bet skews a little old but they had good medical care that is 1.1%

If we look at Korea they are working through it 104 dead out of 9k infected 1.1% but some cases haven't yet resolved certainly death will be one of the two outcomes.

So 0.7% is maybe a little optimistic in the non-overwhelmed medical system case.

If we go to Italy where they are overwhelmed in the medical system

We have 5.5k dead on 58k cases but 46k undecided cases so that is looking more like 10% but population skews a bit old.

So 7% may be a little optimistic in the overwhelmed medical system case.

I am not a professional statistician so this my own view of the data.

Wash your hands, distance yourself and learn the ukulele
 
M

Member 131497

Well it turns out that im self sufficient on the boat since I've been preparing for this for the last 6 years. The only thing would be water, and im working on it. The idea would be to stay in the boat without touching land down there until the all clear. Im concerned about boat patrols harassing me, ect.
 
Apr 16, 2017
841
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
What happens June 1 and there isn't a resolution to this yet? When you migrate north you may encounter a more severe quarantine.
 
Nov 13, 2013
723
Catalina 34 Tacoma
NYC has 5000 more cases today than yesterday another few days of that and it is full on "who lives and who dies" triage. Wash you hands and isolate yourselves as much as possible.
That's only a reflection of increasing testing. No one knows how long it's been here and how many have already been exposed. I would expect the number of exposed to be much higher thus the death rate much lower.
 
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Likes: Jim26m
Jan 1, 2006
7,039
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
The map was the first county by county toll I've seen. My county has 2 cases. I think we have about 300,000 people. Probably more right now due to Snowbirds. Until a sample group is tested - those with symptoms and those without - we won't know how many are exposed. If we get to the end of 2 weeks of self isolation and the number of sick people isn't going down then something is wrong.