Since making my original post, my personal pucker factor has grown exponentialy with each change in forecast track, moving the impact point from central Florida to Jax to Savannah to Charleston to Myrtle Beach/Calabash to Wilmington. The best we all can hope for is that this thing continues to turn to the NE, clearing Cape Lookout by a good 150 miles.
Irene
- Thread starter Steve Kamp
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It does not look that bad on the NOAA sight. Look at the three wind strength graphs for 120 hours (5 days) out. For the Chesapeak Bay it is showing 0% chance of huricane force winds, 5% chance of 50 knot winds and 20-30% change for storm force winds (I think that means a gale or 30 knots) Pretty much a yawner IMO Course it is 144 hours out from Washington DC so things could change some.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I read the charts a little bit differently. Right now it is about 20-30% that the coast of NJ will see tropical storm winds by Sun pm and the path looks like it will continue unless some major changes take place. By Fri pm I am betting that we will see 80-90% prob that we will get trop storm winds and possibly even hurricane winds. Dont see this going away.
Of all times..
Of all times to get a hurricane, my family is being flown to New Bern, NC for a job interview. We are arriving on Thursday and had planned to stay til Sunday. I might just drive us down and leave early Saturday or sooner. They are paying for the flight, Hilton, and car rental. but its not worth our safety. I need to get home in time to lash down my boat. I do have a hurricane experienced friend to help, just in case.
Of all times to get a hurricane, my family is being flown to New Bern, NC for a job interview. We are arriving on Thursday and had planned to stay til Sunday. I might just drive us down and leave early Saturday or sooner. They are paying for the flight, Hilton, and car rental. but its not worth our safety. I need to get home in time to lash down my boat. I do have a hurricane experienced friend to help, just in case.
It would be great if the storms read the NOAA charts and follow their directions. But all it takes is a little wobble of the track and all bets are off. The safe thing to do is to prepare for the worst. We have never complained about prepping for a storm and getting missed. To date we have had to deal with 15 named storms, 12 of those hurricanes. Several we have weathered on board and that is not one of our favorite choices. Plan early and celebrate if your plans were a waste of time. Chuck
Some of the computer models have Irene hitting mid to eastern Long Island and CT directly... and Im paddling as fast as I can for the canyons of NYC or the NJ side of the Hudson to find a 'hidey hole' ... anywhere 'west' from LIS.
I am closely watching this one. I will probably head to the boat on Saturday to double line the boat and strip canvass. Ugh....I hate hurricane watch.
I rode the last one out aboard the boat and it wasn't bad. The wife won't let me ride this one out.
I rode the last one out aboard the boat and it wasn't bad. The wife won't let me ride this one out.
Hey Bad!
Saturday may be too late from the latest projection I just looked at. I'm setting aside Thursday to take off sails and canvas to reduce windage.
If the eye stays to the east of the Bay, winds will blow the water out of the Bay and we'll be sitting on the bottom here at the top of the Bay. If it goes to the west like Isabell did, then it's swamp city for all of us.
Neither option is good, but the former one will have less of a financial impact.
Saturday may be too late from the latest projection I just looked at. I'm setting aside Thursday to take off sails and canvas to reduce windage.
If the eye stays to the east of the Bay, winds will blow the water out of the Bay and we'll be sitting on the bottom here at the top of the Bay. If it goes to the west like Isabell did, then it's swamp city for all of us.
Neither option is good, but the former one will have less of a financial impact.
Re: Hey Bad!
Does anyone have any experience with the Barnegat Bay and storm surge. I know there hasn't been a "major" hurricane along the NJ coast in a long time. Just wondering what might be in store and what I should watch for. I'm new to this. Dont want to over worry but dont want to be asleep at the wheel either.
Does anyone have any experience with the Barnegat Bay and storm surge. I know there hasn't been a "major" hurricane along the NJ coast in a long time. Just wondering what might be in store and what I should watch for. I'm new to this. Dont want to over worry but dont want to be asleep at the wheel either.
I remember reading a Chesapeake Bay History book ... that in the ~1950s a Hurricane came ashore directly at Cape Charles and its rotating action removed more than 6+ ft. of water from the entire bay.
Hurricane Isabelle came ashore lower than Norfolk and thus 'loaded' the bay through its rotating action.
Irene looks like a sure thing on some computer models to hit Hatteras 'dead on'. passageweather.com
Yeah I agree it looks as if Hatteras is dead in it's sight.
If passageweather.com is correct then the eye would be offshore along NJ on Sun. and that would be "better" as far as surge and such is concerned.
nhc.noaa.gov shows the center directly over the NJ coast on Sun at 2pm.
Guess by Fri when I go to double lines and other things we'll have a much better idea.
FYI, the west side of a hurricane is usually the less intense and less rainy side. With that said, Huricane Katrina passed about 50-60 miles east of me and still caused major damage around here.
good news to see this am---irene is a lil more to the east and isnt gonna direct hit hatteras....http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic?...&ww=0&mo=0&sl=0&ht=0&mg=0&ob=0&wf=1&ml=1&ql=0
eastern long island is toast, and some of connecticut......my cousins in rhode island will have a hurrycame party, looks like....
eastern long island is toast, and some of connecticut......my cousins in rhode island will have a hurrycame party, looks like....
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