I just don't know, when seeing the ripples on the lake ahead of me, if it is going to be a header or a lift.
Often it will feel like a puff is a lift when you are going upwind - unless the wind shifts at the same time. From an apparent wind perspective a gust is a lift until the boat gets up to the new higher speed.
Otherwise, on a lake much of it will be local knowledge. Ask yourself:
Where is the wind most and least consistent on your lake.
What are the patterns to the shifts, if any. Often the wind may oscillate about a mean direction. If the last shift was a lift, the next is likely to be a header.
Know your local patterns - how hills and other obstructions affect the wind. If you can watch it at times from a hill or other high area, it helps. Our local marina is up a bit of a hill and has a nice deck to watch the lake from.
When wind dies it can swirl around - usually it fills back in from where it was originally. When it totally dies - any boat speed is the apparent wind - no matter where you go you are headed until you stop. I once capsized my Laser in almost no wind - what little was left swirled around and I could not figure out what side to be on as the boom flopped back and forth. Of course I was on the wrong rail when the wind came back...
This just takes time and observation. Then you can go to a different lake and start over again - but with a faster learning curve.
Some of this has been posted by others, so the above is just to give my perspective. My local lake winds sometimes shift enough that if I look away to talk to my kid - I can get tacked without having changed compass course. Some wind shifts can make me look like a total idiot.
OC