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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
PTC 9 ---> Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
I'm not there but hasn't Apalachicola had enough?
Yeah, they've had more than their share. Maybe that's why the area is lightly populated? My sympathy for what residents will suffer - danger to life, property damage, power outages, flooding, clean ups, what a mess. Maybe Big Bend residents should come over to the East coast for a visit. Or at least Orlando which has a lot of hotel rooms. I would evacuate ASAP.
Yes indeed, I feel sorry for them too. We visited that area one year ago and noted much damage still remains from hurricane Michael, Panama City East all the way to Apalachicola; lots of reconstruction around Tyndall AFB. Hard to get back on your feet when you get hit multiple times. Area around Port StJoe was wiped out.
I’m no meteorologist but I’m guessing it has to do with the patterns in this picture -
This shows the relative heights of the 500mb pressure levels. Roughly speaking that means redder areas are higher pressure, and bluer areas are lower pressure. 500mb is around the mid level of the atmosphere, so it’s what contributes to steering flows. Generally winds flow counter clockwise around the lows and clockwise around the highs. You can see the storm itself making landfall as the darkest blues. When it does there’s a separate “trough” of low pressure over the Mississippi valley, and high pressure north of the Great Lakes. My interpretation is that the low pressure trough will pull the storm up and then to the west around it, and the high pressure will help with that westward turn a little but also shift a bit east itself, blocking the bulk of the precipitation away from the northeast.
Based on the forecast discussions issued by the NWS it sounds like the strength and exact position of the low and the high are still uncertain, so how distinct the westward turn becomes is still iffy, leaving some chances for rain in the Chesapeake on Saturday. I’m in a yacht club holding its annual invitational on Saturday in the northern Chesapeake, so I’m rooting for a weak storm at landfall and a strong high pressure system to block its remnants away.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,217
The storm appears to be crossing the Gulf in behind a High Pressure cell that is pushing off shore. The hook happens as the Low Pressure trough currently over the Midwest dips down towards Memphis.
Looking at the steering winds at 5500 meters you can see the trough and the location of Helene in the Gulf.
On Thursday the models have the two storms beginning to connect
And by Friday they are one. Centered just to the North east of Memphis.
Hurricane Miss Piggy starts at 1:50. Enjoy!