- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,343
Oh my... It is a Heat wave. The surface snow will start to melt... Weather Warming is rampant.
I can hear the news forecasters from the future.
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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Embrace the freeze.
- Thread starter jssailem
- Start date
I can hear the news forecasters from the future.
Nope... Usual stuff.. arrives just when the winter festival with the snow sculptures happens. Hehe.
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,343
Just 11 days ago I suggested that winter was going to be around a bit longer.
Here at 400 ft above sea level, dawn is breaking. My coffee post says the coffee is ready. And winter is still with us. Mother Nature dressed up our back yard with a reminder. Phil said 6 more weeks. What were you thinking hauling your boat to get a jump on the projects. You know that expensive paint will never dry.
Foolish sailor.
Here at 400 ft above sea level, dawn is breaking. My coffee post says the coffee is ready. And winter is still with us. Mother Nature dressed up our back yard with a reminder. Phil said 6 more weeks. What were you thinking hauling your boat to get a jump on the projects. You know that expensive paint will never dry.
Foolish sailor.
Living on the right coast makes a difference. Barely winter here and we're down 50+" of snow this year. Off to the boat tomorrow to continue work on the plumbing and heater install.
Still have yet to have any snow to speak of here on Long Island NY. I have to admit I love snow and I kinda miss not having a big snow storm. Ok did I just jinx it? Still have some winter yet I suppose. Probably start snowing in April when I am ready to put the boat it. Anyway this weather has allowed me to get some projects done which is great.
Daffodils are blooming in the lower Chesapeake, the local weather station said about three weeks earlier this year. Early maple season back home and today I saw divers cleaning several boats.
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,343
Dammit Jim... I just can't seem to get a break..... It feels like the boat likes to be on the hard. For some reason, she is communicating with Mother Nature to delay my repair efforts.
Here is the Rufus Forecast. Disappointingly similar to my forecast (I am monitoring the weather daily) as I think about the cost of being in the Yard each day.
If any of you have a connection, pray for warm weather.
Here is the Rufus Forecast. Disappointingly similar to my forecast (I am monitoring the weather daily) as I think about the cost of being in the Yard each day.
If any of you have a connection, pray for warm weather.
Friday February 17
Well, it’s back - the forecast is for SNOW. Get a hot morn’n beverage ready, and sip on.
This weekend will be relatively mild, with the chance for a little rain or showers, esp north of Salem; NW WA & southern BC will be damp at times, with a few hours of dry sprinkled about. The big change begins Monday, with a very high probability for SNOW across the entire PNW as next week unfolds. Long-winded details next. Keep your Mug full.
Recall that throughout the nearly 29 years of writing here, we stress that longer-range, 10-day model solutions often shift back & forth, with older solutions ending up being the most accurate. Well, our Ponder Point written Feb 10 may end up being the 'real thing’. We pondered about a very SNOWY, COLD end to February was being crafted by the wx models; that has returned as a solution for the next couple of weeks.
The Set Up. (Stay with us on this.) A ‘double dome’ combination of High pressure zones will merge on Monday - one over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the other over the interior of Canada. The result will be a Low pressure trough pinched between the merging domes that will initiate windy, wet weather over the PNW starting late Monday. Idaho, MT, WY will get snow right off, the PNW will turn much COLDER overnight Mon as that Low (in simple terms) reforms off the coast of WA & OR and essentially ‘parks' there from Tue through Thu.
The Result. On & off SNOW showers for all west side locations is probable for 3 days. The higher, cumulative accumulations are likely from Longview to Ashland, but everyone should get an inch or two, at least, if all this model projection verifies. (Some models suggest 5” to 10” in western OR. Really?) We should add that several different models are assembling a similar solution for next week. As that Low spins to our west, COLD modified Arctic Air will gush out across the mountain passes and the usual Fraser & Columbia Gaps. Burrrr. Low temps should range from upper teens to low 20s, west side, in wind sheltered areas. The wind should diminish by late Fri, and that Low will bring cold rain and possibly news-making low elevation snow to California.
A new system is charting to drop in from the BC coast by Sat night Feb 25, with rain, rain/snow mix, or just plain snow across the PNW. California will get in on the rain as that storm tracks south. Some solutions swing that same Low up into eastern OR by Tue Feb 28, with snow east side. Long-range outlook is for March to start out very much like our weather next week - damp, snowy and cold. Let’s winter through next week first.
Winter is likely to slam the west coast again. Travel plans will be impacted, both air & road. School delays and/or closures will also impact work routines. Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings specific to your location, because they will, indeed, vary from our 'broad overview' type forecasts here at The Weather Café®️
“Some people need solitary refinement."
-Rufus
Snowed 4” of snow last night in NW Indiana…less in Chicago, but cold and snowy nonetheless…
Luckily my 2 big winter layup projects this year are:
- Order new head sail…which is on order with North Sail. They are also doing a small modification to my main sail to change the headboard that keeps catching on my topping lift…but no real work needed on my part,
and
- building a new helm “box“ that mounts to my pedestal and hoses some instrument wiring, speakers for the stereo, etc. The old one had holes where old radios were installed (and later removed), and it interfered with my new to me ST-6000 AP clutch…
I am building it in my basement though, so not so weather dependent.
I am going to get out to the marina on Monday (have to love federal holidays) and check onTally Ho. I was in Hawaii for 3 weeks and I haven’t checked on her in 6 weeks….having some withdrawals.
Greg
Luckily my 2 big winter layup projects this year are:
- Order new head sail…which is on order with North Sail. They are also doing a small modification to my main sail to change the headboard that keeps catching on my topping lift…but no real work needed on my part,
and
- building a new helm “box“ that mounts to my pedestal and hoses some instrument wiring, speakers for the stereo, etc. The old one had holes where old radios were installed (and later removed), and it interfered with my new to me ST-6000 AP clutch…
I am building it in my basement though, so not so weather dependent.
I am going to get out to the marina on Monday (have to love federal holidays) and check onTally Ho. I was in Hawaii for 3 weeks and I haven’t checked on her in 6 weeks….having some withdrawals.
Greg
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,343
Paying rent on 2 sights is one of those challenges no one enjoys. I gambled on hauling the boat in February. The weather had looked mildish. Maybe 10days or 2 weeks on the hard and I can get the bottom painted plus the engine installed. Not a big issue.
DRAT's Mother Nature. You just had to give us another dose of winter before you could brighten our spring...
Here is what looks to be coming to our Pacific NW. SNOW on the VALLEY FLOORS. RATS rats rats..
President’s Day Forecast
DRAT's Mother Nature. You just had to give us another dose of winter before you could brighten our spring...
Here is what looks to be coming to our Pacific NW. SNOW on the VALLEY FLOORS. RATS rats rats..
President’s Day Forecast
Banks, Post Office, Schools, Stock Markets - are all closed for the holiday; however, the weather is always 'working'. Rumor has it that cherry pie is popular today, so, too, is a hot cup of coffee. Mug ready?
The PNW will transition this evening back into ‘winter mode’ around the west coast. A notable storm will arrive overnight, with lots of well-advertised snow in the mountains, coast range & foothills by morning. Also, it will be WINDY! Rain will not be too heavy, however, any showers, post frontal passage, could be of the thunder type, esp along the coast. Several inches of snow will be falling just about everywhere above 1,000 ft.
For those of us at sea level, or nearly so, we can expect some of The White, at times, to fall and STICK, as the air & ground turns colder each day this week. Most of the straight snow should fall Wed & Thu although many will likely see snowfall late Tue evening or so. The amount of snow is so uncertain, as every forecaster keeps telling us, because the moisture source will diminish after the cold front passes. However, there is a weak Low modeled to form Thu, which could swing moisture into the western OR area for an additional tease of valley snow. Portions of CA will also receive cold rain, low elevation snow, and frosty mornings later this week. Strong Fraser River, and to a lesser extend, Columbia River Gorge, outflow wind will come into play, esp Wed/Thu.
High temperatures on Thu or Fri could rival the coldest recorded west side in several decades (!) for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s to upper teens; colder if out of the wind or on the east side. Broadly speaking, this event may end up being the coldest of this winter. Keep your skin protected, as wind chill will be quite low. Dry & Cold Fri and Saturday.
There is another system that should arrive mid-to-late this coming weekend (Feb 25,26), which, depending on the track it takes, could bring additional snow above 1,000 ft and threaten valley snow or freezing rain, at times, if there is enough offshore flow mixing in. Model solutions do suggest that the system will remain offshore as it tracks into CA; showers of rain/snow mixed possible, esp south of Salem Monday Feb 27.
The week of Feb 27 - Mar 3 looks quite chilly and wet, with snow levels above the valley floor, but low enough to make travel over coast & Cascade ranges tricky. It gets interesting again later on Fri Mar 3 because a similar COLD storm front is charting to move in from the northwest - with the same features as this week’s pattern. Yes, very low snow levels, including at the surface - are quite probable during the first weekend of March. Icy roads & frost possible Monday Mar 6, while the PNW awaits yet another COLD, foothill snow-type storm from the NW. Given the higher angle of pre-spring sunshine, these cold March storms often kick-off thundershowers over the west, with plenty of hail. PNW & California snowpack will grow deeper.
Back for our current event: Just for the fun-of-it, we will throw out a few numbers. There are model solutions that project a cumulative of 5 to 6 inches of snow from Salem south to Roseburg between Wed and Fri midnight, with a couple inches in Portland; another run projects 2”-3”; then another few inches in early March. Much of NW WA will miss out on the snow, but the cold wind will be notable.
Yes, when it comes to snowfall, forecasts and reality hardly ever match up around here. Still, this week will offer the best chance for a decent Willamette Valley snow this winter. Bundle up and have fun waiting. No harm in that!
“A great deal of what we see depends on what we are looking for.”
-Rufus
It's been a frustrating winter here. Very little snow except inland. We got a couple days of local XC skiing but had to drive inland. We found plenty at the Appalachian Mt. Club about an hour beyond Moosehead Lake. It was beautiful skiing!
Our local ski area has struggled this winter. Being so close to the Atlantic, we have a sort of fringe winter usually. This season, the only snow is man-made.
With thaws, rains, and freeze ups, the snow was kinda sporty last weekend.
I managed to fumble my exit from the chair lift and crushed my wife. It took quite a while to clean the snow off her face and glasses. She's a good sport!
We met our daughter on our way down as she was 'skinning' up the mountain. She took a vid of me and her mom (red parka) boarding by. I've got to keep it up. Next season I qualify for the (near) free season pass for 70 yr olds.
Our local ski area has struggled this winter. Being so close to the Atlantic, we have a sort of fringe winter usually. This season, the only snow is man-made.
With thaws, rains, and freeze ups, the snow was kinda sporty last weekend.
I managed to fumble my exit from the chair lift and crushed my wife. It took quite a while to clean the snow off her face and glasses. She's a good sport! We met our daughter on our way down as she was 'skinning' up the mountain. She took a vid of me and her mom (red parka) boarding by. I've got to keep it up. Next season I qualify for the (near) free season pass for 70 yr olds.
I gave up boarding, as a formerly expert skier, the first time I got on a boad and went splat!
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,343
If I got on a Boad and went splat, I'd give it up to...
"Boad"ing sounds dangerous.
boad (a verb) Obsolete form of bode. (a noun) Wood
bode (a verb) to indicate a future event
Would: boad boad, be an indication of future wood?
You guys might already know about this site.. but I think its interesting
climatereanalyzer.org
If you wait a second after the web site initially loads, a bunch of options will show up on the left side. Its a daily update and the "2m temperature anomaly" and the "SST anomaly" (sea surface) both are interesting. The SST anomaly is more interesting during the late summer big storm season.
Climate Reanalyzer
climatereanalyzer.org
If you wait a second after the web site initially loads, a bunch of options will show up on the left side. Its a daily update and the "2m temperature anomaly" and the "SST anomaly" (sea surface) both are interesting. The SST anomaly is more interesting during the late summer big storm season.
