Here is estimated late last night.
And for the Hurricane Hunters shout out!
403rd Wing
From Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS.
Dammit Jim...
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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Hurricane Marco <--- TS Marco <--- TD 14 <--- [old and dead Invest 97L]
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
And for the Hurricane Hunters shout out!
403rd Wing
From Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS.
Dammit Jim...
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,311
Yes it is interesting Rick.
Not sure this is the way these to storms are reacting. They developed separately. The were steered by upper level winds driving them to East and low level surface winds driving them to the West. Neither storm found adequate energy to develop vertically. They started to rise, then they would get knocked down, start to build, repeat. This cycle occurred across the Atlantic. When they got into the Caribbean they found an opportunity to build some, yet they got knocked down again and both scooter along on the low level winds. Now over the Gulf of Mexico they are re-emerging.
Prep your boats for storm surge and families as these storms a coming ashore this week with a bit of energy to dump as rain. These are the type of storms that have in the past birthed tornadoes once over land.
Listen to your local emergency services. The News reported “advisory: be sure you have food and supplies to last a couple of days.”
Not sure this is the way these to storms are reacting. They developed separately. The were steered by upper level winds driving them to East and low level surface winds driving them to the West. Neither storm found adequate energy to develop vertically. They started to rise, then they would get knocked down, start to build, repeat. This cycle occurred across the Atlantic. When they got into the Caribbean they found an opportunity to build some, yet they got knocked down again and both scooter along on the low level winds. Now over the Gulf of Mexico they are re-emerging.
Prep your boats for storm surge and families as these storms a coming ashore this week with a bit of energy to dump as rain. These are the type of storms that have in the past birthed tornadoes once over land.
Listen to your local emergency services. The News reported “advisory: be sure you have food and supplies to last a couple of days.”
This the Vorticity or Vertical wind flow and the GFS [NOAA] model at 36 hours out.
It shows TS Marco and most likely change to Hurricane Marco on next update.
But...
Moving westward, as will TS Laura.
Dammit Jim...
PS: Vorticity
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Marco just announced as hurricane on last update from NHC.. Laura going further west ... My grandfather had a summer home/camp on the beach where Laura looks to be landing (just east of Tex border in La) Before he died, we'd lost 4 of them and several acres of land.. All under water now..
Oh my gosh!
@kloudie1 screamed at Hurricane Marco and guess what?
Scared Marco and he ran away.
Dammit Jim...
Looks like at your worst [Monday night] winds will be from the E-ENE driving the surge down.
All of us are lucky, as Hurricane Marco will skim the LA coast line and die.
Jim...
We prepared for a LION and got a kitten out of Marco.
What happened?
It was upper level wind Shear that smeared the Vorticity of Marco to the North East.
Like spreading butter over toast.
Little wind or surge and a dab of rain.
______
Can you spot the path of Marco across the Gulf on this Heat picture?
Can you spot the Gulf Stream flow from the Caribbean to Atlantic?
Jim...
What happened?
It was upper level wind Shear that smeared the Vorticity of Marco to the North East.
Like spreading butter over toast.
Little wind or surge and a dab of rain.
______
Can you spot the path of Marco across the Gulf on this Heat picture?
Can you spot the Gulf Stream flow from the Caribbean to Atlantic?
Jim...
@JamesG161 , will you be able to get a similar graphic after Laura does her thing? Tks. 
I was late on the Heat Removal for Hurricane Laura, sorry.
Can you see the effects of Laura's route?
Wide storms stir up the surface temperatures, which bring cooler deep water to the surface.
Nature's way to temper the waters.
Both Storms removed a lot of Gulf Solar Heat!
Jim...
PS: The Tropical Atlantic is not looking very scary either.
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Yep. Tks for posting.
I'm amazed at how quickly the heat came back up south of the island chains.
Summer Time and the living is easy... (old song)
We are phone discussing the current storms activity, that notifies everyone's Weather Apps giving alerts on the current 3 spot by the
National Hurricane Center.
So Far...
Jim and John
Dammit Jim.....I love that old song and quote the title often.....Summer Time and the living is easy... (old song)
We are phone discussing the current storms activity, that notifies everyone's Weather Apps giving alerts on the current 3 spot by the
National Hurricane Center.
So Far...
Jim and John
Rick
Thanks Jim. A beautiful arrangement. Back in the day we would go to a nice little bar under the bridge in Portsmouth NH and listen to a very talented singer on a keyboard perform Summertime so well! Couple drinks, and all the problems of the day dissolve to that music....