This reminded me of Joseph Conrad's story 'Typhoon', where captain MacWherr argues with his first officer about tacking to go around a storm that they haven't seen. The first officer is fresh out of the academy and is using new weather science to determine there is a huge storm approaching. He advises adjusting course to sail around it. Captain MacWherr refuses because he can't know for sure the storm is real. He actually believes what his first officer is telling him, he just doesn't feel he can justify it. His argument is that it would add 3 or 4 days to their trip and the company owners would be angry at the loss of time. MacWhirr tells the young officer that the owners of the company will ask him why he decided to take the longer route and MacWhirr would answer, "to avoid the storm." MacWhirr tells his first, "they would say, 'It must have been a big storm for you to change course like that.' And I would have to answer, 'I don't know, we went around it.'"Tami suggested they "tack" to head north to avoid the storm
They sailed into the worst typhoon ever recorded in the Indian ocean. Not only were they many days behind schedule, but the ship was dismasted and very badly damaged.
You should read it, if you haven't already.
I read an excerp of that scene to the high school I worked for to illustrate the types of unseen obstacles one must navigate through in this World. One of my favorite stories.
- Will (Dragonfly)