Wondered how long it was going to take - bad news

[John]

that was yesterday

today is different.I once heard of a guy who went out sailing in the Caribbean. He'd been cruising around for months, facing nothing but the most beautiful weather. Then August rolled around and he received a hurricane warning. "Oh, no" he said. "I've been here quite a while and we never get storms like that." So he did absolutely nothing to get out of the storm's way nor to prepare his boat, which sank with him on it. Too bad about the boat.Well, of course, it's just a made-up story, but you get the point. We've been living in a dream world for so many years, that it's hard to accept the new reality. I think that the economic storm that's coming (and it's just barely being felt so far) will be far, far worse than anything that I have ever experienced, and I'm 62.For decades, the Federal Reserve Bank has prevented the worst crisis by cutting interest rates and pumping money into the economy. They could get away with this because the rest of the world had to accept US dollars. That is now over. When they cut interest rates and pump in more dollars, the dollar falls even further, raising prices. When they try to stem the collapse of the dollar, by raising interest rates, they slow down the economy even more.We have peaking oil supplies, a huge credit bubble that has popped, a dollar that's dropping like a stone along with the stock market, banks that are losing money hand over fist... Remember the movie, "The Perfect Storm" where several storms converged over the Atlantic and the effect was to multiply the super-storm's power many times over?Of course, not all will suffer equally. I hear that the boat yards that are building the multi-million dollar super yachts are still booked up several years into the future.

 

[Banooma]

Hi Tom

Hey Tom, when I lived in CT, I worked in a building in Stamford overlooking the Sound and wish I could have a boat right there. The company just about dissolved, and I moved on before I could make that dream a reality. Yes, I consider myself extremely fortunate that my family has a place in Harvey Cedars. I actually keep my boat at a marina on the mainland. I'll say hi to Barney when I pass tomorrow. By the way, your chances of not getting pulled over by a rent-a-cop on LBI are much better if you listen to music at human levels and don't wear a baseball hat backwards or sideways

 

[John Nantz]

The Party is Over

This downturn we're in isn't just another bubble that's popped - it's the beginning of a general economic downturn for the entire world.Just like the stock market Dow graph with it's jaggies, for the last century it has been, overall, going upward. The Dow is more or less the tip of the iceberg because it only includes a few companies. There are many, many more businesses from the non-Dow to mom and pops that aren't even listed.With the current Earth-wreck in progress there will be more and more people starving, more species going extinct, larger weather events, and who knows what the disruption of the eco-systems will bring. The days of burning trees for heat and fuel and using oil for cheap energy are past. The nuclear option is just that, the atomic bomb of energy sources. Waste that lasts forever, plants that can go awry. Condela Rice said last year, in so many words, that we shouldn't do anything environmentally that is against economic growth. Well, what did the extreme cold northeast winter cost? What did the storms in the Northwest cost last winter? What are the floods in the midwest costing? What are the forest fires in California costing? What will the forest fire season in the Northwest cost this year? What will this years hurricane season cost? What will the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Pacific off the coast of Vancouver Island cost? The fact is, global warming and climate change is costing everybody.Will the North Pole be ice-free this summer? The less polar ice there is, the more there will be heat energy adsorbed, and therefore .... well, let's not think about it. Maybe it will just go away?After all, Man-"kind" is a superior animal, right? We are soooo smart.The party is over!

 

[sailortonyb Allied Mis]

The real kicker is

that the oil companies are getting very greedy. Usually when the oil companies are having a good year, they do a lot of maintenance to write off some of the profits. This year, however, is quite different. There is little to no maintenance going on in the deep water rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mex. Not just one or two companies, but all of them.You cant tell me that they dont talk to eachother. My theory is pure speculation and no fact to back it up, but here goes anyway......the price of oil is so high and the profits are so great that the oil companies dont want to risk losing 1 minute of peak production due to contractors on the platforms. Think about this and you do the math...a typical deep water platform will pump approx 50,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil and 25 million cu. ft of gas per day.Thats just one platform!!!! If a contract service hand causes a disruption that could typically shut down the platform from anywhere between 30 minutes and 4 hours, thats a lot of $$$$$$. Thats more than me and Banooma make combined in a week. Sorry, Ban, I tried to behave, but it just dont work for me. They are now even looking closely at our grocery budgets. Aint that some s**t?Another note, I dont think the Arabs are purposely holding back oil. I really think that their fields are slowly playing out and production is slowing down.This is a closely guarded secret of the Saudi's. If they let the world know that they were running out, nations would be forced to find alternate sources of energy and in turn lower the demand.Just a thought.Tony B

 

[Tom S]

The Sky is Falling.

Man. All this doom and gloom. You guys are really depressing. Sounds like a bunch of grumpy old men. Is this a west coast thing?John N from Wash State, you are kind of taking this into political discussion and because of that might push this into the bilge on the "Sails Call Lounge". I won't make this political, but I will comment on some of the things you said that are just plain made up. You said "what did the extreme cold northeast winter cost?" Huh !?! *o Where in the hell did you make that up? I live in the Northeast and have my whole life, there was nothing extreem about this winter. It was average and maybe even considered a nice winter. Not extreem in the least. Just saying things on the internet does make them true. If you are so easy to make up a statement to surround and buoy your position it makes one wonder what else you just make up in what you write.John from Alameda, Ca do you really think this is going to be" far, far worse than anything that you have ever experienced" ? I am not quite as old as you, but I am old enough to remember the mid 70's & Gas rationing , Odd/Even License plates and waiting in lines a block long for gas, a real recession, Real Unemployement, Rust Belt economy, Interest rates at 19% etc etc. I remember the big stock market crash we had in '87 too. I recall people jumping out of windows in Downtown Manhatten then. Cycles happen, no need to jump out windowsI do agree with the sentiment a few of you had that I think we are all just a bit spoiled of how good we all have had it for so long. That is a testament to the system we have. People can bash all they want, but the free market society we have is responsible for all of what you have. Look around, you have it better than 99% of the rest of the world. You start wanting to screw with that free market system too much, tax too much and redistribute the wealth too much (etc etc) and I can guarantee we can make the USA only as good as half the world to live in (I know some people out there would actually like that - my feeling for those people is don't bring the US down, just move to those places)Yes, I do think its a real down turn and an adjustment which is the natural cycle of things. Yes I do think it sucks a bit. Yes I do think things are different and with a global comptetition we never really had 30 years ago it will be tougher. But, do I think the sky is falling? No, its a cycle. Sure its a storm coming up and we all have to batten down the hatches and ride it through, but I think we'll end up more like "Satori" than the "Andrea Gail". We'll survive intact, but we'll probably have to put some work into getting us off the beach and sailing again.

 

[Richard19068]

On the lighter side

Here's a little known Jimmy Buffett song he wrote about the "energy crisis" in 1974. How many of you remember waiting in line to buy gas back then and only being able to buy it on designated days? Peddlers and Pushers by Jimmy Buffett There Running out of Gas for your automobileThe only way to get itis gonna know how to stealOr push your car home 'til your back starts breakin'I'm sorry now kiddies that's to much to takeI want to be a Peddler not a PusherI can't wait 'til they find a new gusherSkinny tires and wires get me where i want to goThere want be gas for campers or trailersNone for big yacht's or even Boston WailersThe only people movin' gonna be the sailorsJust casting their fate to the WindRepeat ChorusAnd I Hope this record want be my finalBut the copy is just about to run out of vinylMaybe the'll go back to plastic on paperOr even punching holes in vanilla wafersNow people you have heard my warningBetter get up kinda early this morningAnd get yourself down to the bicycle dealerPick out a one, maybe two or three wheelerRepeat Chorus

 

[Bob4203]

Just to neutralize

Allow me to step in...........Lets look at Lake Lanier, Georgia and the drought conditions as the real determinator in the equation. As a sailor, I envy you folks; you can drive over to your marina, hop on your boats and never worry if that vast body of water under your boat will ever get so low that your shut off from sailing by water too shallow! Afterall the oceans are expceted to rise not lower. Consider if you will please the southeast drought and the country's most popular lake with thousands of boats soon to be stranded again at their docks by the continuing summer drought. This is going to be bad unless a tropical storm sits over Lanier for weeks. Sure, it was poor planning as the great Lanier watershed is about the size of Madison, Wisconsin and we fight amongst the borderline states for water to cool power plants, provide potable supplies for the masses and for the survival of benthic species in the Appalachacola River Basin. This has been an absolute cluster $#@* down here presented by the great State of Georgia and the Army Corps of Engineers! So you want deprivation? global warming punishment? spend a small fortune on dockage to go nowhere? Consider yourselfs as sailors to be luckier then us.NO! I cannot take my 30-footer over to the coast, because the lifts are closed here!!!!!!!!!!! Thats doom and gloom fellas. Everything else in the news to me is just pudding.Bob

 

[sailortonyb Allied Mis]

Bob

You have my sincere condolences. Its heart breaking to hear of someone losing their favorite pastime. To some of us, sailing is a big part of our lives.I dont want to rehash the reasons why you are in that predicament because this thread might get pushed into the "sails call lounge" and lots of us dont frequent it. I'm glad its here for now, though. We know that the Lake cant stay dry forever so eventually you will get to sail again. Hang in there.Tony B

 

[sailortonyb Allied Mis]

Reality is not always a good thing

We get on here and fuss and cuss and entertain ourselves either as the prophet of doom or the enlightened one. We talk in generalities where mere numbers mean nothing no matter how large the figures. Then along comes Bob with one short tragic story. Its all about one man out of 250 to 300 million Americans and over a billion worlwide. And this one man's story takes on a life of its own. Why is it that we bleed more for one than all of the masses? Maybe it's because we remember ourselves from a not so fortunate past or see ourselves in a not so fortunate future. In either case, thanks Bob, for sharing that.Tony B

 

[Ross]

Tom S , I am a grumpy old man!

I have been preaching about inflation for forty years. Our lives are going to change as a result of the changes in the world economic dynamic. Boating will remain a pastime for those with the means to support it, but trading boats every few years is going to be much more difficult.

 

[John Nantz]

Winter Storm Coverage

Tom - what I wrote about for last winter was based on what I saw reported in the news media. There was story after story being reported about winter storms. Did some quick checking (not going to make a research study out of this) and it pretty well jibes with what the media was saying.While all this was going on in the US, in Europe they had to make snow or haul in snow for the World Cup ski events in the Alps! For example, Innsbruck which is where one of the Winter Olympics was held was barren. By contrast, the US news was all about snow and ice.Some findings for the US:April 2008: The maximum snow from this event was reported in Virginia, MN, which received 32 inches (81 cm) from this single event, the largest ever April multi-day snowfall in the Iron Range. In Canada, Quebec City received 5.5 meters (18 feet) of snow this winter.February 2008 brought a series of large winter storms across much of the northern two-thirds of the U.S., beginning with a major winter storm on February 5-6 that impacted a swath from northwestern Missouri through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Michigan. The next week, a strong mid-latitude system brought several inches of snow from central Oklahoma and Missouri through the Ohio River Valley to New England on February 12-15, 2008. By the end of the month, Boston's Logan International Airport broke a new February RECORD for total precipitation, and parts of Wisconsin have also set new seasonal snowfall RECORDS. Numerous other locations in New England are set to break new seasonal snowfall RECORDS if March snowfall totals are near average. Although the EXCESSIVE WINTER PRECIPITATION may aid many areas in the Northeast that experienced a relatively dry fall, it has wreaked havoc on many roofs and local snow removal budgets.  December 2007: Detroit, MI, received nine inches (22.9 cm) of snow, tying it as the 9th biggest December snowstorm on record. By the 17th, more snow (19.6 inches/49.8 cm) fell in Boston, MA so far this snow season than all of last year (17.1 inches/43.4 cm). http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/snow0708.htmlInteresting NOAA graph of historical snowfalls for Caribou Maine: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/mar/CaribouME_Snow_2008-03-21.pngIn the news tonight they're saying that the North Pole (Planet Earth) is warming far faster than what anyone thought was possible.The Sky is Falling? Yea, sure is! Mercury and other heavy metals from China. So, yes, you could say it is really falling and it's getting in our food chain. Shows up in fish, for example, and the Orcas which are really heavily contaminated because they're the top of the food chain.The local food market guy that runs the meat section won't eat the fish because of the heavy metals.