Wind Forecasts

[Kermit]

Wind HAS to be the hardest thing to predict. Today's forecast at Wateree Lake was 1-2 knots for this afternoon. The wind was perfect for sailing when we left to go home after spending a couple of hours on the hard (out of sight of the lake) doing odd jobs that could have waited. Talk about disappointed!

 

[Ross]

On Thursday the winds were forecast for 5-10 from the NW on the upper Chesapeake Bay. They started out a little less than that and built to 10 -15. For Friday they were forecast to be from the East at 5 veering to the south east at 5-10 . On Friday they were from the north at 5-8. This morning they swung around to the south. That is why we are sailors!

 

[Calif. Ted]

Went out at 5 last evening with a boatload of fellow sailors to watch the tall ships parade, 15 knots as we rounded the breakwater and headed up, 5 minutes later it dropped to less than 5 like someone flipped the off switch, go figure.

 

[capta]

I've said for quite a few years now, that if I did my job (as a professional captain) as well as the weather people did theirs, any boat I was operating would probably sink before we left the dock.
They do not do their job well but they never seem to lose them, either. Now there's job security for you.
I do not ever listen (or watch TV) weather forecasts; I make my own predictions based on the huge amount of information available on the web.
For those of you interested in accurate weather forecasting, pick up a book or two on meteorology and learn to read the weather maps. They are absolute, real time data, not some overpaid bright smile parroting a forecast gotten from an uncaring source, and once you understand them you'll be miles ahead of the forecasters. Even the hurricane forecasts can be incorrect enough to be a danger to you, your family and/or your boat; remember Sandy?
The NWS and NHC are hampered by a bunch of rules when making up the forecasts for dissemination, so what they suspect might happen, as experienced meteorologists, is not something they are allowed to include in their forecasts.
Everyone who messes about with boats and spends time on the water knows that experience and intuition are an integral part of being safe on the water.

 

[Chuckbear]

I have been boating for over 50 years and cruising long term for over 20 years. There is one thing I have learned in all of those years. The National Weather Service can not and has never been able to accurately forecast wind conditions over any body of water. They are wrong much more than they are ever right. We generally take any forecast winds and add 5 knots and then add 1 to 2 feet to any wave forecasts. Most of the time we are close. It's the only job on the planet where you can be consistently wrong and not only never loose your job, but get overpaid for it. We find that we can look at weatherfax and other materials and come up with our own forecast much more accurate the the "experts". This includes the so called paid weather gurus that many swear by. Chuck

 

[CalebD]

The online NOAA weatherfax charts are pretty illuminating to look at: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml
Charts, satellite, wind wave direction data.

 

[Wanderer138]

I've had pretty good experience with Sailflow. They tend to underestimate the forecast wind speed (which I think is good). Besides, any source that overlays actual wind speed and direction measurements on their forecasts must be doing something right. I don't know how good their coverage is in other parts of the country, but it looks like they use data from airports, which makes sense because that information is critical for pilots.

I supplement forecasts with local knowledge and observations, including weather radar on my phone. You can also check wind speed and direction at sunrise to see what it's doing without the effect of the sun. If you know how the sun affects the wind in your area (e.g., building a seabreeze or lake breeze) you can combine the two and get some idea of how the wind may change over the course of the day. Good luck.

peter