John Holtrop's follow-up...and mine
I promised I'd share any follow-up comments of John's to the observations (reservations, I guess I'd call them) I posted here.Here is his follow-up email to me:"Hi Jack,You raise some interesting questions regarding the "validity" of the selection process used in my program. Like you mentioned, its just one of many filters that people can use to help in selecting a cruising boat. My hope is that once someone becomes familiar with the fuzzy logic process, they can modify it to suit their requirements, and identify boats "close" to those requirements. Unfortunately, the math scares off most people. My personal bias is towards older designs, and designers, that specialized in offshore designs - before gps and satellite weather forecasts. I believe today's designers are heavily influenced by marketing data that rewards speed, light weight, large interiors, wide beam, and flimsy (inexpensive) rigs. These boats sell, are fun to sail, and many go offshore, but are they really optimized for blue water sailing? I don't think so. Best RegardsJohn"FWIW here was my response to his email:"John, thanks for your reply. A couple of follow-on comments... [My personal bias is towards older designs, and designers, that specialized in offshore designs - before gps and satellite weather forecasts.] I think that makes my point for me. It's not that your measurements are 'wrong' in any sense; they are just historically or geographically or otherwise slanted to a particular subset of designs. To suggest them as a 'best' baseline or absolute set of references, without acknowledging what they omit, seems a bit incomplete to my way of thinking. [I believe today's designers are heavily influenced by marketing data that rewards speed, light weight, large interiors, wide beam, and flimsy (inexpensive) rigs. These boats sell, are fun to sail, and many go offshore, but are they really optimized for blue water sailing? I don't think so.] I agree with your depiction of some contemporary designs & designers but I think you make a huge leap to move from 'Good Offshore Designs' to this statement. Boats that come to my mind when I read your comment were Catalinas, Hunters, Beneteaus, Jeanneaus and such - and with the misguided exception of a few Hunter models, none of these boats are billed as model offshore designs. Instead, they are sold pretty much in the vein you describe them: large interiors are lauded, slippery speeds are quoted because they lack so little underbody, ease of handling is emphasized but not ultimate storm management capacity, and so forth. OTOH if we were to look at contemporary designs and boats that are built, marketed and sought after by offshore sailors for offshore use, wouldn't we be talking about the latter day Valiants, many of Chuck Paine's desgins, Frer's Hallberg-Rassys and many of the French designs being built in a host of materials today? I think you'd find it pretty tough to to convince knowledgeable offshore sailors that these are 'flimsy' or not designed & built carefully with an eye to offshore use. And I guess my point is that these designs do reflect progressive learning & improvement in how the boat can be sailed and managed offshore...as well as offering better crew comfort and capacity. This isn't a slam against the venerable designers you rely on - it's just reflecting the view that boat design hasn't been stagnant for the last 50 years and that the best learning includes those learnings. "BTW I reflect on a couple we've come to know here in St. Pete who, over the last 14 years(!), have built a faithful replica of a L. Francis Herrschoff(sp?) ketch - a 39' boat that's heralded in Herrschoff's book as being a Compleat Cruiser. The boat's in the water now, sails finally bent on, and it's lovely - the lines stop people dead in their tracks, along with tons of varnish. And as I look at the boat, I'm struck by how unsafe it is by contemporary standards, how uncomfortable the cockpit, how poor the crew protection from the elements, how little freeboard and how wet she'll be even in coastal waters, and we've already seen how painfully difficult she is to maintain. And yet, when I was first getting into sailing and boat ownership in the early 70's, Herrschoff's book was considered one of the bibles. We've come a long, long way since his time...and I suppose my point is that we didn't stall out sometime in the 70's, along the way. "Thanks again for your efforts; hope you don't think of this as criticism so much as feedback intended to improve your product or at least modify how you market it on your website." Regards,Jack Tyler