Based on what? The variability is so high here, this blanket statement doesn't hold water. (Couldn't resist the pun.)
I get the spirit of the "10-year rule" as a practical guideline, and agree it isn't bad practice, but it doesn't work as a literal statement of hose lifespan or "reliable" hose lifespan. There isn’t an ABYC spec, manufacturer guideline, or polymer-science source that gives a universal 10-year limit across all hose types. It's a folk heuristic that's been repeated so many times people treat it as fact.
Hose degradation depends primarily on:
- polymer type (EPDM, nitrile, PVC, polyurethane, silicone, etc.)
- temperature cycles
- chemical exposure
- UV/ozone exposure
- internal pressure
- vibration/mechanical strain
- installation (bend radius, clamps, chafe)
- ... and the complex interaction of all of these factors
You simply cannot declare a universal calendar lifespan across those variables.
When you compress all of those into a single calendar number, it stops being a material fact and becomes a conservative maintenance guideline - which is fine as long as we treat it as that. Replacing critical hoses on a 10-year cycle is good risk management - no disagreement there. But it doesn’t mean we cant trust any 11 year old hose, regardless of chemistry or conditions. Nor does it mean we can trust every 9 year old hose. Inspection is the key, not the calendar.
It's kind of like saying, "cars are reliable for 10 years - some might last longer, but you can't count on it." While it is true of some cars in some conditions and it's not a bad guideline, it is way overgeneralized.
What is true, and I think the reason this axiom persists, is the fact that the interplay of the variables is so complex, it is really hard to calculate the
actual reliable life span of any single hose. So, we just say, "Well, if you have had the hose for 10 years, it doesn't hurt to replace it." And that's true.
But, what is also true is that most hoses don't need to be replaced profilactically. Sudden catastrophic hose failure is exceedingly uncommon, these days. I would go so far as to say it never happens in a non-pressurized and non-heated hose. Regular inspection is more than adequate prevention. But, of course, a better rule is, "Replace any hose you don't trust." If that means you replace an otherwise perfectly good hose on its 10th birthday, then that's what it means for you.