What percentage of sailors can't think ahead?

[Zed]

My experience of sailing is admittedly minimal. And I am retired, and many of the experienced sailors I know are older than me at age 66.

But it seems to me that most of them simply cannot imagine the simple frame of reference of:
"if I do this, what will happen next, and AFTER THAT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?"

Most that I know seem to sail by the seat of their pants, going from one adventure to the next without any thought that the easy and most expedient way, is the way to do it.

Such as a simple one: I've towed my dinghy to the dock, pulling the other guy's dinghy. He needs to move his to the other side of the dock. I say, "We can just pull yours up on the dock and put it on the other side--easy peasy". He says, "No I'd rather row it around." I say, then you will have to climb of the dock into my dinghy, then climb into your dinghy from my dinghy, and you may lose your balance and fall in." He says, "Naaaa...." So he climbs into my dinghy, stands up, to climb into his, and promptly falls overboard.

Just typical!

 

[Kings Gambit]

"Caution" and "precaution" are words whose existence and/or meaning seem to have been lost from many a sailor man's lexicon in the "instant, it's not your fault, government-to-the-rescue world" of today.

 

[Jackdaw]

My experience of sailing is admittedly minimal. And I am retired, and many of the experienced sailors I know are older than me at age 66.

But it seems to me that most of them simply cannot imagine the simple frame of reference of:
"if I do this, what will happen next, and AFTER THAT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?"

Most that I know seem to sail by the seat of their pants, going from one adventure to the next without any thought that the easy and most expedient way, is the way to do it.

If true, you need to hang around smarter people.

 

[Stu Jackson]

Dumb & dumber

Zed, it takes all kinds, right? Thing that scares me the most is that these types actually get to drive cars on the roads!

Back to sailing:

I've always looked ahead, thinking: "What happens if this breaks? What's my next move?" Experience certainly helps. This thought process was brought home when a dockmate, way back in 1988, lost his forestay in high winds in our infamous SF Bay Slot. His story: "I was thinking ahead, and if that happened, what I'd do is turn downwind immediately and get the load on the backstay, not the forestay. I turned and went to Berkeley, 2 miles DDW." That gave him time to secure the forestay before he docked in a visitor's slip. The next week I had my rig inspected and the closed body turnbuckle on the backstay came apart, literally. Preventive maintenance is a great thing to employ.

Also, a lot of people actually singlehand their boats, whether they realize it or not. Raise your hands if your significant other does nothing except maybe help you dock? In that case, learn to dock by yourself with a midship spring line. Would actually make it easier for both of you! :dance:

Finally, singlehanding taught me how to do things, everything, with minimal effort and wasted time. Heck, if I was the one doing everything, why would I make it harder? Just like your example.

Good post.

 

[Stu Jackson]

If true, you need to hang around smarter people.

Jack, that's a teaser. How does one do that? :dance::dance::dance:

I suggested this to a friend of mine and he just said: "Easy, they're always on another boat!"

 

[Gene Neill]

My experience of sailing is admittedly minimal. And I am retired, and many of the experienced sailors I know are older than me at age 66.

But it seems to me that most of them simply cannot imagine the simple frame of reference of:
"if I do this, what will happen next, and AFTER THAT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?"

That reminds me, I gotta finish off this liter of gin and go climb my mast.

 

[Kings Gambit]

My experience of sailing is admittedly minimal. And I am retired, and many of the experienced sailors I know are older than me at age 66.

But it seems to me that most of them simply cannot imagine the simple frame of reference of:
"if I do this, what will happen next, and AFTER THAT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?"

Most that I know seem to sail by the seat of their pants, going from one adventure to the next without any thought that the easy and most expedient way, is the way to do it.

Such as a simple one: I've towed my dinghy to the dock, pulling the other guy's dinghy. He needs to move his to the other side of the dock. I say, "We can just pull yours up on the dock and put it on the other side--easy peasy". He says, "No I'd rather row it around." I say, then you will have to climb of the dock into my dinghy, then climb into your dinghy from my dinghy, and you may lose your balance and fall in." He says, "Naaaa...." So he climbs into my dinghy, stands up, to climb into his, and promptly falls overboard.

Just typical!

Actually, you've hit upon one the basic divides in the science of epistemology, which is a universal one. The empiricist view of the world versus the rationalist view. In the first, knowledge (truth) derives from experience; in the the latter, principally from abstract forethought (as in deduction). He probably won't do that again for gain of new knowledge from the "experience."

 

[capta]

Just how far ahead does one have to think when the average speed one travels is around 6 miles an hour? Honestly?
As for your example, two old guys muscling a dink over a dock could be a lot more damaging to one or both bodies than a dip in the water.
I think a lot of people sap the fun out of boating worrying about all the possibilities of what could go wrong. It just ain't rocket science, and if you are not having fun, then you shouldn't be doing it. THAT's when it gets dangerous!

 

[Calif. Ted]

I'm still trying to figure out why you didn't tow him to where he needed to go instead of your side of the dock ? Maybe he was a little confused about that too.

 

[Zed]

I'm still trying to figure out why you didn't tow him to where he needed to go instead of your side of the dock ? Maybe he was a little confused about that too.

Because his dinghy is a tiny little thing that I could have pulled onto the dock all by myself. Heck, my 10 foot walker bay comes right up easily. I offered, but he was intent on climbing out of the dock, into my dinghy and then into his, and not interested in the easy way. Had to do it the hard way for adventure. He doesn't learn well from experience actually.

Everything has to be done the hard way: like sailing into the mooring, when motoring in is soooo much easier and less dangerous on other boats.

 

[hensonrick5]

Let's put this in perspective. I'm a commercial pilot by occupation and there are those out there that we say the same thing about. It's not just sailors (or boaters)!!!

 

[woodster]

To answer the ops question I would have to say 100% are that way. We have all had our moments in the box and more than likely will again all the prep in the world mentally will not stop the gee I coulda had a v-8 moment because no one person can know it all even though I have been in the company of those who thought they did

 

[Zed]

To answer the ops question I would have to say 100% are that way.

Actually less than 100% since I am obsessed with thinking about backups for everything critical, and with what will happen next in any critical situation.

 

[higgs]

I vote for capta

 

[higgs]

I think capta hits the mark. Let's have fun. So the guy went in the drink. Now we have a story. Sure, maybe it could have been done better, but let's chill out and have fun.

 

[agprice22]

Best advice I have ever read: have a plan, a strategy for the situation. If it doesn't work, thank God that no one got hurt, revise the strategy, and try again. Don't worry that you looked silly.

Andrew

 

[woodster]

Actually less than 100% since I am obsessed with thinking about backups for everything critical, and with what will happen next in any critical situation.

well now that really narrowed it down ...i have to wonder if you totally sail alone or with others....if you sypher something to death you have killed the adventure and your ability to be resilient...don't ever drink you will not be able to handle the outcome or relax...that is good advice from CAPTA

 

[Zed]

well now that really narrowed it down ...i have to wonder if you totally sail alone or with others....if you sypher something to death you have killed the adventure and your ability to be resilient...don't ever drink you will not be able to handle the outcome or relax...that is good advice from CAPTA

Ah yes. I've been out of the herd for almost everything I've ever done in my life; why would I have expected that I would be in the herd here.

My ability(perhaps not yours, and certainly not my friend's who is also worried about losing a sense of adventure) to be resilient is dependent on my ability to have a back up for common situations. Having a backup is the epitome of resilience, IMO. And having a backup allows me to relax and have fun.

Oddly his sailing partner for the last 15 years, his own wife, won't sail with him because, his inability to plan ahead for potential danger situations, is beginning to scare her.

BTW, I drink. I never drink when I drive or when I sail. Not the least of reason, when sailing, if the Coast Guard shows up and I'm inebriated, I know that I will not like what happens next.

 

[woodster]

Ah yes. I've been out of the herd for almost everything I've ever done in my life; why would I have expected that I would be in the herd here.

My ability(perhaps not yours, and certainly not my friend's who is also worried about losing a sense of adventure) to be resilient is dependent on my ability to have a back up for common situations. Having a backup is the epitome of resilience, IMO. And having a backup allows me to relax and have fun.

Oddly his sailing partner for the last 15 years, his own wife, won't sail with him because, his inability to plan ahead for potential danger situations, is beginning to scare her.

BTW, I drink. I never drink when I drive or when I sail. Not the least of reason, when sailing, if the Coast Guard shows up and I'm inebriated, I know that I will not like what happens next.

i commend you on the starch in your shirt sir .....but you really should spend a night in jail some time it might loosen you up and give you a softer perspective or at least take away that need for total power...we always perform at our best when the chips are down with no back up plan at all ...and you based on your portrait of you self have never maxed out your potential .....

 

[capta]

his inability to plan ahead for potential danger situations, is beginning to scare her.

I'm sorry, but I just don't get it. You do remember that sailing is probably the SAFEST sport there is, right?
Please explain what these danger situations are and how one could have a plan that would encompass every weather and sea condition or every interaction with any one of a hundred different sorts of vessels that one might encounter on a sail.
I would think that after all that detailed planning for potential danger situations, one might just be too exhausted to actually go sailing.