Tough to tell
But unless you have seen a lot of condensation inside the boat, and possibly bad effects in areas other than the bulkhead, then I would think you have a leaking chainplate. Mine was leaking on the starboard side almost from day one. I saw the telltale signs of darkening wood, but no visible drips. When I pulled it out, the minimal amount of sealing material I found was a real eye opener. Also, the varnish on the bulkhead under the entire length of the chainplate was deteriorated from moisture. So I went ahead and redid the port side as well.Pulling out the chainplate, cleaning up the through deck hole, and applying lots of 3M 4200 when reinstalling, is a little tedious, but not real difficult. The lower shrouds held the mast up as I did each side in turn.