More than you Want to Know about Bulbs
A light bulb is a deceptively complex piece of equipment. It has several components. There is a filament, which heats up and gradually evaporates. The filament is is covered with an inert gas which reduces corrosion. Eventually either due to the heating or heating and cooling cycles, it will develop a minor flaw, which eventually results in failure. In addition there are several seals. There is a seal between the glass and the metal base. In addition there is at least one seal between the glass and a ceramic piece and one more seal between the conductor and the ceramic piece. Every time the bulb is turned on there is stress around these seals. If manufactured correctly, they will last a long time. If there is a defect, such as a small inclusion in the ceramic or glass, the failure will happen more rapidly. The bulb operates in a fairly benign environment. There is some acceleration and vibration, but not nearly as severe as the process of installing the bulbs. The small twisting can result in stress. In addition just touching the bulb leaves residue on the glass, which will result in uneven stresses. As a consequence, bulb installation is just as likely to cause failure as the operation of the bulb itself.Studies have been performed. Components are installed with as little stress as possible. The component is then operated in an environment to simulate actual operating conditions. The first time the component is operated is the most likely single cycle in which it will fail. Actually when each individual cycle is looked at, the first cycle remains the most likely cycle to fail. For example, it could be more likely to fail in the first cycle than the 10,000th cycle. I don't know what the actual numbers are. These are WAGs.