Bill,
I think it's a combination of all three: VMG to wind, VMG to waypoint (mark) and crew and boat characteristics.
F'rinstance, set the favored tack (longest) with the first, KNOW the position of the upwind mark from the second, and make the decision to tack to the "final" layline the third. Remember that with currents the final VMG to the mark could be misleading (pun intended
).
I think it's a combination of all three: VMG to wind, VMG to waypoint (mark) and crew and boat characteristics.
F'rinstance, set the favored tack (longest) with the first, KNOW the position of the upwind mark from the second, and make the decision to tack to the "final" layline the third. Remember that with currents the final VMG to the mark could be misleading (pun intended