The Clock Is Ticking

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jimmyb

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Feb 12, 2010
231
Precison 165 NA
I and (now) my swiss-gnome financial manager are expecting an immediate loss of 20% value in the $US and are looking/planning on another 20-30% depreciation to cover all the impending state bankruptcies/defaults, etc. etc. ... so I expect my saving/investments (if left in the USA) will be 50% lower in value due to the $US ... and the resultant inflation will so increase the cost of goods (now mostly imported) will catastrophically increase that will result in an economic double whammy .... 50% less of value saved and upwards of a 50% increase in the living costs (food, fuel, imported goods, etc.) .... , all as a worst case.

This happened many times before in the USA but the capitalist clock was always reset by a near total collapse followed by a quick recovery. Now that the country is rapidly leaning socialist the recovery will not be reset (crony-ism between Wall St. and the 'gummint', states defaulting, and a bond & T-bill market bubble about to 'pop'), I predict/surmise the 'recovery' will be very slow very long and very flat for a very long time --- all the massive foreign investment that propped up our economy for decades, like Elvis, "has left the building". I wouldn't want to be less than 50 years old or solely on SS and living in the USA when this $#!* hits the fan. Just like Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy .... the USA's *interest* on the national debt (now owned principally to 'foreigners') is approx. 30% GNP, will soon by 50% and possibly thereafter equal the entire GNP !!!! All our 'productive' industry is being forced to 'offshore' due to tax and regulation overload, a brain drain of our 'brightest' is starting to happen in earnest, most (80+%) of those who are engineers and scientists will be retiring in the next 10 years .... not a good picture for the future, huh?
thats nothin! you want some scarry sh*t, read revelations. Better get some survival skills bub and learn how to use a firearm cause we can wipe ours butts with our money when the real fun starts. just look at Katrina and you can see for yourself how fast society will self destruct. We will be at apocoliptic levels in no time at all. Good luck to the weak and unprepaired. You cant eat Gold and silver either. You will be bargaining over the barrel of a Gun, wild west style.
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
Hyper inflation is nothing new and the people survive. Sometimes it upsets the social stratification and the wealthy are brought down but the poor survive and continue as always. Learn many ways to earn a living.
 
Jul 1, 1998
3,062
Hunter Legend 35 Poulsbo/Semiahmoo WA
RichH: I'm with you and on your wavelength

The Big Bailout is going to cost the country dearly. And now Congress is talking about another $500 Billion (give or take) spending proposal. I wrote about this in an earlier post here. Wonder if they have anything in the budget for new printing presses?

You just can't keep borrowing money and printing new paper money. It just can't work. I'm not an economist but I've got some common sense.

In the news today was a little bit about a research firm called Trim Tabs. They reported that "corporate insiders continue to dump stocks. Selling reached 11.7 billion in November, the highest monthly amount since November 2007.

Hummmmm......

What do these CEOs, CFOs, etc. know that we don't?

And I don't think they're selling to get money for Christmas gifts, either. One of the big sellers I think is Balmer (sp? Microsoft big wig)
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
Re: RichH: I'm with you and on your wavelength

Fellers let get this thread back on the subject of early retirement and sailing. We started out discussing the manner and means of walking off our day jobs and changing life styles. I allowed that I didn't think it possible to work for thirty plus years and retire for thirty years with the history of inflation that we can't ignore. The last several posts would seem to suggest that, it makes little difference what we as mere mortals try to do to prepare for retirement, life as we have known it is about to end.
I don't have this dilemma as I know that my investments are adequate for only about ten years in the economic climate of today. I shall continue to work and read the fine stories of your sailing experience and idyllic life style in your sunset years. ;)
 

RichH

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Feb 14, 2005
4,773
Tayana 37 cutter; I20/M20 SCOWS Worton Creek, MD
Ross, the point is that every 'calamity' presents an opportunity; and, if you dont realize that calamities do happen (and no matter how governments seem to make everything 'worse') and carefully PLAN to be able to quickly change your (retirement) strategies in a unstable economic situation ... then thats the way to 'survive' the chaos with as much $ in your pocket instead of $ in the pocket of 'others'. The reverse strategy is to put blind faith trust in 'others' ... and thats plain foolish. A PLAN is really needed so one knows when the plan's goals arent being met and what one has to do to meet the 'new' (up or down). If one doesnt plan, including the contingencies, then one can only drift in the turbulence caused by others. ;-)
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
RichH , you got it right. I fall into the group of men that started a business on a shoestring and tripled his investment. Now I have three shoe strings.
 
Jul 20, 2010
81
Precision P28 Lake Ouachita
I know lots of people that are 'waiting' until they retire to start doing something they like. I don't think it happens that way. The RV lots are full of 'slightly used' campers, 5th wheels and the like. Those were the people that 'waited' their whole working lives to retire, buy a big RV and travel. In my opinion thats good for about a year. Then what? My advice is to find something you love doing and start doing it. If you can't stand the thought of putting it down and can't wait to get back to it...that's the ticket.

As someone else posted ....make every second count!
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
The economy has been painfully slow and many mornings I can sleep until 9 or 9:30 but on those days when I have a job I am up before the sun. I work because I love what I do. If I didn't I would find something else to do.
 
Nov 8, 2010
123
Ericson 29 Grand Lake, OK
The single most important principle that has guided me all my life is this:
"We are all born with the same destination in life, and it's a six foot deep hole. We have to come to the understanding that we are dying from the moment we take our first breath and only a couple of people have ever made it off this rock alive (religious reference in case ya wondered) and I'm fairly certain I'm not in their league so that's a door I have to walk through, it's the path we choose between the first breath and the last one that seperates us from the monkeys.". You will never see a tombstone inscribed "wish i'd spent more time at the office". I know some of that comes off as cheesy cliche but it's true. Everybody dies. Did ya truly live (?) is the question ya have to answer.
 

jimmyb

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Feb 12, 2010
231
Precison 165 NA
The economy has been painfully slow and many mornings I can sleep until 9 or 9:30 but on those days when I have a job I am up before the sun. I work because I love what I do. If I didn't I would find something else to do.
Ross,
You have hit on the most important thing about choosing work. Enjoying what you do, you are one of the lucky ones. This makes it much easier to continue working and keeps you from burning out early in your career. Always happy for those who find there calling so to speak.

jimmyb
 
Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
The first thing you need to check out of the rate race is your health. Without it, you're not going to have any quality of life regardless of your plans. Daily non-impact exercise is a must, swim, row, orbital machine... anything that won't impact your joints and raise your heart rate for 20 min/day goes along way to keeping your health care costs in check. I swim 6K/week.
Eat a high fiber, low fat diet with omega 3 oil supplements. You can't change your genetics, but you can hedge the cards you were dealt.
By keeping yourself healthy you will be more likely to be ahead of the game when purchasing health insurance with a high deductible saving significantly on the monthly premium. Bank roll the difference for the unexpected and collect the interest instead. 5K-7.5K of a high deductible keeps the premium low and allows you to have control over your money, not an insurance company, but it all starts with your health. The only way to beat the system is not to get sick!!!!
The other important key is, you need to be a jack of all trades, good sailors tend to be out of this mold anyway, but learn to do all of your repairs whether your home, car or boat, computer... If you have to pay for services it's with money you could have spent on other things. Think of it this way (and I recognize it is a bit of a stretch), for every dollar you spend on services you had to earn that dollar, and pay taxes on that dollar, so it's not just the dollar you save, but also the taxes you would have had to pay on that earned dollar you save.
I will be pulling the plug on my business in 18 months and rolling the dice with my investments as well. SS is not going to happen for anyone with any net worth, beware you will be tested right out of it, other government entitlements whether sate or federal are in serious peril, the US is running on fumes.
Good luck with your retirement decision.
 
Jun 30, 2004
446
Hunter 340 St Andrews Bay
"She treats her body like a temple, I treat mine like a tent" (Buffett lyric). I like to think that it's the stress that is killing most of us; hopefully you guys that have gone to do boat repair in exotic places have de-stressed and are living healthy lives.
 
Jan 22, 2008
1,483
Hunter 37 C sloop Punta Gorda FL
I had heart attacks at 42, and again at 48. Didn't think I would live to see 50. My second wife and I had always lived below our means, and saved some. When I became eligible for a pension and retireee medical insurance at 54, we bailed out. During the years from 50 to 54 our favorite pastime was to question "do I want to work another hour,or day ,or week, to pay for this purchase"

We bought an O/I 41 and moved aboard summers in Lake Michigan, going back to our house from Oct till March while the lake froze and thawed. Sold our house and took off before my 55th.

Wonderful experience, we are considering selling our current house and doing it again at 70. We have somewhat larger numbers in our savings accounts than we had 15 years ago, but because of inflation, less value. That 's OK. We should never have to go back to work again, but if we do that is a small price to pay for living the dream.

I concur with the thoughts about airobic exercise and eating right. If you don't have your health, nothing else matters. Go!! Do it!! NOW!! There may not be a tomorrow.
 
Sep 25, 2008
1,096
CS 30 Toronto
Retired the "mind" but keep the job.

There is nothing wrong to keep working just don't let issues get under your skin. I have considered quiting many times over the years now. But one day I woke up and saw the light. Just treat the work as a hobby. The job is inconvenience but get compensated. Once you got that mindset, you are fire proof.

You need more time, just take no-paid leave. If the company don't allow that, just quit for a while.

You got to keep physically busy and your mind working to stay alive.
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
I have a half acre subdivision lot that Nancy and I have planted with trees and gardens and lawn. We have an elevated glassed in all weather back porch that allows a view of the yard. When we don't have work for pay we have the yard and gardens to maintain.
People come and visit and remark about the peaceful feeling of the place. We feel no need for going away for a vacation, the boat provides that but home is a fine sanctuary from the world.
I feel a bit of sadness for people that can't wait to "retire" so they can escape the madness of their workplace and move to a place that suits them better.
For all of the nearly 44 years Nancy and I have been married we have considered what we like about our life and what we would change. We have kept what we liked and changed that which we didn't like.
In the words of an old country song: I got a humpback mule, a plow and a tater patch, eggs that are gonna hatch someday, I got the lord above and a good girl to love me. I am the richest man I know.
 
Mar 18, 2007
86
Hunter 28.5 cedar creek lake, tx
waiting to retire

I am 53 years old and am on my third career. I retired from the USAF in 1994, worked as a corp trainer for a mobile home company (that eventially went out of business), worked HR for a subsidiary of Carrier Corp (until they moved to Mexico), and now am a high school special ed teacher. All along the way I have saved. I am 14 years into my second marriage and my wife and I are on the same page with everything, especially savings.

We do not have cable or satellite (okay for those that do), we have cheap cell phones, both vehicles were bought new and have been paid off for a LONG time but run great. Our house is a complete remodel older home which keeps our mortgage extremely low. I use a wood burning stove for winter heat. we watch our spending so we can enjoy our Hunter 28.5 at the lake.

we plan to retire in 5 to 7 years unless we can swing it earlier. We have moved mobey into income producing ventures so we will have a kitty when we push away from the dock. each of us will have 4 sources of income when we retire. Nothing to make us rich but we can go sailing on the ocean, travel the caribbean at will, live nicely, and still have savings. We both share the same dream and are working together to get there.

My wife has always said it is not how much you make but how you manage your money. I can draw a timeline of my life and I can connect the dots of all my accomplishments and careers and they all seem to be a part of the skill sets we need to do this sailing thing. I am going tfor it because i want no regrets later.
 
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