• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TD 3 --> Tropical Storm Bret

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Storm watch is out.
AL032023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


The two tracking models ECMWF and GFS are still different.

It is that time of the season, for African Monsoons to spin them off West Africa.

AFM.png



At this time, not much intensification will develop as it tracks is over lower HEAT area.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-3.gif


TD3 will become weak Hurricane Bret.

Jim...
 

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,887
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
I don't often cross post, but in this case, I'll throw in my 2 cents worth.

To be honest, I haven't been watching the Caribbean weather, but from what a quick look through my sources show, it is all going to depend on what the Atlantic high (the big dog for directing Caribbean hurricane movement) has been doing. If it has been moving east or NE, both storms should pass well to the north of Grenada, though the west swell would be pretty bad on most of the Windwards, including Prickly Bay.
However, if the high remains where it is, or moves west or SW, it will probably hold both storms on a more southerly course, creating at the least, tropical storm conditions in Grenada.
I would highly recommend you head for Tyrrel Bay on Carriacou, and have Gus get you into the lagoon. He's trustworthy and fair, and very knowledgeable about getting boats in, moored, and out of the lagoon w/o damage.
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
what the Atlantic high (the big dog
Capta spot on! :clap:

Big High.png


But the models are seeing that HIGH move East.

Thus the slow turn shown on my HEAT graph.

Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Current Information on Tropical Storm Bret.

bdhigh.png


Slight strengthening is expected until Thursday 22nd.

084035_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png


Current speed West is a fast 20 mph, which is a good thing.;)

Jim...
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,386
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Jim, Why is that a good thing?
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Jim, Why is that a good thing? [Storm Westerly speed]
A slow trek over HEAT filled waters, allows a storm to build up Vorticity or sucking up more Energy

It can cause Horizontal Sheer to deform the storm.
_____
On the Relative Humidity Chart [ the driving force for HEAT removal, post #5]
you can observe why TS Bret will weaken on its move West.

Jim...
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Newest update...

TS Bret will not reach Hurricane Status.:clap:

It will arrive at the Antilles on Thursday 22nd, with gale force winds and lots of rain on the East side.

Screenshot 2023-06-21 at 7.40.50 AM.png


115051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Jim...
 
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