• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Strange Winter?

Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It has been a while since we were not in a La Niña or El Niño North American Winter.

enso neutral composite(1).png.jpeg


This has been, in General, a Neutral Winter.
___
El Niño started and quickly stopped in 2019.
The Pacific Heat was still there and gave a bit more moisture to the North. [Mini El Niño]
_____
The meandering Polar Jet Stream had given us the...

Snap on and Snap off

Winter Changes.
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The Jet Steam dips and fragmentations is the key for the Spring.
Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts for North America

Jim...
 
Feb 21, 2013
4,638
Hunter 46 Point Richmond, CA
Maybe not on point but I monitor the weather conditions...........temperature, wind speed, gust speed, wind direction and sky condition, by wherever I sail on "Windalert". You can select multiple "favorites" to monitor, say Richmond Yacht Club near where my boat is berthed, Golden Gate Bridge, etc. It also shows tides.

 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Can you elaborate on this term?
I meant rapid changes to most North America.

One day snow storm[ Snap on] next day Sunshine and melt [Snap off]

Not so much very North USA and Canada.

It was the Dip of the Jet Stream to the South that was Snap on.
Jim...
 
Sep 22, 2018
1,869
Hunter 216 Kingston
I meant rapid changes to most North America.

One day snow storm[ Snap on] next day Sunshine and melt [Snap off]

Not so much very North USA and Canada.

It was the Dip of the Jet Stream to the South that was Snap on.
Jim...
Thanks.
It’s actually been that kind of winter here in KIngston Ont. A few days of serious cold/snow then longer periods of above freezing temps.
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,069
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Seems to fit with Southern Florida where temps have been above average or even near record highs. But if that nasty old jet stream allows cool air down we're getting out our jackets.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
BTW, there has been a comparison of the Winter of 1932 to now. Also a year of Neutral ENSO.

I am sure there are more, but this is why it appears "Strange" to us.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Jim’s Snap-On Snap-Off weather is triggered by the interplay between a couple of weather phenomenon.
  1. Jet Stream
  2. Polar Vortex
  3. North Pacific High
The way these 3 interplay creates the weather we experence.
98F298FA-A508-41A0-87EC-70BB579ED496.png

Sometimes the Jet Stream flows in direct lines, sometimes it wobbles.

EF323BF3-4946-406E-B826-1BA756FBAA30.jpeg


When the wobble occurs we can see the Jet Steam dip down across the country and “snap-On” winter... From Acuweather....
When the polar vortex-a pool of bitter air that often sits over the North Pole during winter, weakens or becomes elongated, the frigid air that is normally locked up above the Arctic Circle can eventually break loose and move southward.​
There is at least one factor working against a large sweep of frigid air into the Eastern states, especially across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic.​
An area of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere has persisted in the southwestern Atlantic this winter -- and it has been helping to pump mild air up the Eastern Seaboard. Indications are that this pattern may continue during much of February.​
The earth has sections of air movement.
881E2DCD-476B-4F1B-B768-7F30DE83C442.png

And a jet stream of air that pushes or drags the High’s or Lows which bring our weather.
E6CFDAC1-6B87-4D69-A4B6-A2B7312A7581.jpeg
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
An area of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere has persisted in the southwestern Atlantic this winter -- and it has been helping to pump mild air up the Eastern Seaboard. Indications are that this pattern may continue during much of February.
This is the reason for near record highs on some days [Snap off]

But along with the Record Highs comes the Record Lows [Snap on]

On Feb 14, 2020 in Continental USA, there were...
≈8700 Record Lows
≈1800 Record Highs

Jim...
 
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Sep 22, 2018
1,869
Hunter 216 Kingston
Four times this winter season the ice has formed and broken up. Not “typical” at all.
0F7A6B2B-5310-4AC0-8F8B-F01815C361E7.jpeg
 

walt

.
Jun 1, 2007
3,511
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI Ridgway Colorado
Global stranging LOL?

Last two years the polar vortex has been very strong and we have had cooler than normal winters in Western Arizona. Cant show a link for that.. just a perception. I watch what happens in South Park Colorado and its also been colder than normal there this winter.

I like to show links so you know its not just something I heard on the radio but this is interesting and from this link Polar Vortex Grows Arctic Sea Ice to 10-Year High, but There's a Catch | The Weather Channel

Ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean is currently the highest it has been since 2010 with support from the strongest polar vortex on record.
Ice coverage in the Artic increased recently meanwhile we just had the warmest global January on record (always a link so you know where the info came from) January 2020 was Earth’s hottest January on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

In the span of 141 years of climate records, there has never been a warmer January than last month, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Certainly strange...
 
Aug 11, 2018
7
Hunter 46 San Diego
As a fairly new cruiser, I find myself overwhelmed with weather data. Your post was certainly informed and helpful. Thank you. However, I am not sure I can be helpful to anyone reading this string. We are on a six-year journey, starting with the Sea of “Cortez and from there, the Atlantic and from there the Pacific. We hail out of San Diego. We use PredictWind for the most part, but supplement that with local forecasts and sail nets. So far we have done pretty well. However, we would like to take our tools to the next level and are considering using a weather forecasting service. Could you let us know your experience with these types of services, and if you would recommend them to supplement our planning? Thank you. Larry
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Good Morning Larry
We are not designed to be a “Weather Forecasting Service“. I am sorry if we gave you that impression.

We are a discussion site to help all sailors improve their weather understanding. A place to ask questions. When certain weather events present themselves, we try to help the members understand what is happening and how they can become better prepared for the events by evaluating the volumes of data and filtering the information. In a sense helping sailors to identify relevant information to their needs. These are skills we all need as sailors.

Your 6 year cruising plan sounds exciting. Your will be sailing through some beautiful waters. Are you planning a run through the Canal or around the Southern tip of South America? The waters you will explore each have regional dependency in producing the “usual“ weather you will experience. The Sea of Cortez is great water to build that knowledge base. Predict Wind is a great tool. I also use “Windy” and the NOAA sites.

While Climate Change is a subject popular in the news, from a Sailor’s point of view knowing the historical or “Normal” weather for an area is more critical. Reading the historical weather patterns, i.e. winds, waves, storm times of the year, are more relevant in being able to understand current patterns as they develop or are impacting your cruise passage.

I look forward to your participation in this site and sharing your cruising experiences.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Could you let us know your experience with these types of services, and if you would recommend them to supplement our planning?
That is the purpose of this Specialize Forum.
To share experiences by all on SailboatOwners site.

"PredictWind" has been mentioned.
_____
In Truth, there is a rush to find the best APPlication to sell to Boaters.

I find Windy.com to meet most of my 5 day planning for a cruise.

But I make weather a science hobby, since it drives sailboating planning.
____
We are developing a thread, to this Forum, from a member who asked a similar question.
Hopefully we can jump into it faster, as most are seeing Springtime early.

But... [the always present but]

We all need a basic understanding for what to expect, at least for the next 24 hours.
_____
and just as i was typing this @jssailem beat me too it.

We are a discussion site to help all sailors improve their weather understanding. A place to ask questions.
Teamwork in action...
Jim...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Spring sprung here in the PacificNW. It is a mixture of beautiful days like yesterday
1588001181973.jpeg 1588001257133.jpeg

to Grey, windy and rain. More suited to a rain slicker than a short sleeved polo shirt.

But the saying says April showers will bring May flowers. So I remain optimistic.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Polar Jet Stream keep dipping into Northern USA and not much help from the warm Pacific Ocean.

That Jet Stream is moving to the mid latitudes to start the spring severe weather now.

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Will. You live too far north.
We had a lovely day yesterday. Blue sky Sunshine. 80 degrees. Grilled Dinner on the deck. A respite in time.

Expecting a 20 degree drop on late Sunday and rain in buckets.

Snow is not bad unless you put your gear away early in hopes of a warm spring day.

0244995B-283E-4426-920B-07E7C72E2681.jpeg
 
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Oct 19, 2017
7,745
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
My current concern is that we just installed 5 new bee packages into hives a few days ago. They don't have the numbers to really keep themselves warm and haven't had a chance to seal up their new home. The winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph with a high 37 F.

Those little girls are getting a very rough start.

-Will (Dragonfly)