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Spring Cruise 2021

Dec 25, 2000
5,007
Hunter Passage 42 Shelter Bay, WA
In the planning stages of a San Juan Island spring cruise the week of April 4. Long dry spell coming to end, hopefully. Border still closed so nothing serious other than gunk holing around the islands for a week. You know, Parks Bay, Blind Bay, Friday Harbor, Watmough Bay. Maybe find some obscure anchorage that we have overlooked. If you have some suggestions worthy of your submission, please let us know.

Have not been to Coupeville in awhile. Admiral always enjoys browsing this neat little sea side town. That might entice her to join the crew. Always open to fellow skippers interested in joining our excursion. Will keep an eye on the forecast, but odds are in our favor this time of the year. All fingers and toes crossed. We're banking on you, weather honcho. Want your bonus this year? Well best that you deliver a...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
15,862
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
I have been busy doing my civic duty, serving on the Grand Jury. One learns a lot about the seedy part of their community serving on Grand Jury.

Weather is one of those things that even when your discussing tomorrows expectations you can be right 50% of the time. No pressure here to predict out what might be 11 plus days in the future.

Being a person of the PacificNW you need to decide. Is your schedule free... Let's go. Rain is just water and dress for it.

The sages have shared the ditty "April Showers bring May Flowers".

When you want the wisdom of the ages the Farmers Almanac is always a place to turn. You learn so many great sayings and interesting guidance, like when is the best day to do stuff....
FARMERS ALMANACBest days for these tasks.
April 4, 2021harvest belowground crops, begin logging, set posts or pour concrete,
April 5, 2021castrate animals,
April 6, 2021castrate animals,
April 7, 2021castrate animals,
April 8, 2021plant belowground crops, make sauerkraut, make jams or jellies, can or pickle vegetables and fruit,
April 9, 2021quit smoking, begin diet to lose weight, cut hair to discourage growth, plant belowground crops, make sauerkraut, wean animals or children, make jams or jellies, can or pickle vegetables and fruit,

The Old Farners Almanac states "while the Northwest will see spells of mild—albeit still wet—conditions. This wet weather pattern could dampen any outdoor activities."

The opportunity for boat cleanup, painting and fiberglass work is not likely for part of that first week in April.
 
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Oct 19, 2017
6,881
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
Weather is one of those things that even when your discussing tomorrows expectations you can be right 50% of the time. No pressure here to predict out what might be 11 plus days in the future.
My professor, in my Weather Lab course, said that if you predict the weather on any given day by using the statistical average for that day over the last range of years for which we've been keeping track, you'll be right as often as any other modern weather prediction model. So, what is the weather usually like. That's what it will likely be again.

Of course, if you plan a picnic or a sailing trip for that day, there is a rain factor that needs to be accounted for.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
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Oct 22, 2014
15,862
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Terry.
One hates to be a party pooper. Weather is in a constant state of flux.
But the real long range looks at weather for the first part of April has a large Low pressure forming up in the Gulf of Alaska. Normal weather patterns suggest that Low will move SE towards the Puget Sound. Here is the NOAA GFS Image for 4 Apr 2021
1616616394263.png


The image data suggests April showers to start the month for the Pacific NW.
Want to delay that then somehow grab the High pressure drifting over Eastern Oregon and hold it bak on the coast. That will force the Low north and into BC Canada giving you your preferred weather pattern of Sunshine and frivolity in the San Juan Islands.

Alternatively don your foulies and head out in to perfectly normal spring time Pacific NW weather. It is what gives us our green forests and moss between our toes.
 
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Jul 27, 2011
4,529
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
Thank you for that update, John. I say, come hell or high water, make it happen for some sail time on the water.
I’ve often noted that if I had let unfavorable weather forecasts deter me much, I’d not have half as much sailing time that I actually do! Go for it!! Oftentimes it’s just not as bad as it sounds in a forecast.
 
Oct 19, 2017
6,881
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
I’ve often noted that if I had let unfavorable weather forecasts deter me much, I’d not have half as much sailing time that I actually do! Go for it!! Oftentimes it’s just not as bad as it sounds in a forecast.
Agreed, our it comes later and you missed the window, or it went somewhere to the South or North, or it stalled out there somewhere.

Mother Nature thinks it's a great joke to train on a picnic or a sailing trip, but she often loses enthusiasm of the intended victim doesn't give her the satisfaction of affecting their plans.

Take lots of pictures.:thumbup:

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,862
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
When considering Long range (7Plus days in advance) forecasts of weather, there is always glimmers of hope for fair conditions.

Just beginning to peek on the horizon is the Pacific High, that provides the fair skies we sometimes enjoy during the summer. The Pacific High stabilizes our weather.

Here in this, April 4, image the models have the High moving north of Hawaii. If this continues, it could portend nicer days in the PacificNW during the period of early April.
LONGRANGE Consideration.jpg


Temps for the period likely mean your Wallas heater will enjoy a spring shakedown experience. If the wind gods show up as the current indications suggest you may enjoy, on Easter Sunday afternoon, conditions that let your demonstrate your famous "Sailing the Ditch" skills.

At this point all of it is a SWAG... but as Alexander Pope intones "Hope springs eternal in every human breast".
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,862
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Just as hope begins to bring "sunshine", the forecaster I share ideas with says.... NOT SO FAST Sailor Boy.

Here is his "Long Long" range prognosis for PacificNW weather. Of note are his closing words... "If this verifies".

Friday March 26

Nature will try to get the PNW into Spring mode, unfortunately it will be hit & miss for the next couple of weeks. Let’s take a look.

Today through Sunday morning, YEAH - Spring! Warm temps - maybe topping 65-70 in southern portions of OR & Willamette Valley on Sat. On Sunday, a strong cold front, esp for March, will rapidly appear from the NW. Wind & rain will start over Vancouver Island, NW WA first (could be as early as overnight Sat), then sweep into the balance of the PNW, including ID on Palm Sunday. Snow levels will drop below 1,000 ft by Monday. Again, this will be a rather strong front for March, so WIND will definitely make a statement, esp over WA and the eastern basins. Showers diminish by Monday evening, with another chance to bring on Spring starting Tue Mar 30.

By mid-week, temps and sunshine should provide a delightful portrait of Spring. Temps will again tease the Seventy+ range, esp south of Salem. The next time Spring begins the yield back to winter-like cooler, wet conditions will be by Fri Apr 2 or Sat the 3rd. That weekend looks chilly & damp, although the system will NOT be a strong one like this weekend. Sunshine may win out much of the day Sat for areas south of Chehalis. Maybe. Showers & cooler temps step back in for the entire PNW by Easter Sunday.

That cold, wet pattern will not leave us, but it will expand south into California early the week of Apr 5-9. Showers & unseasonably cool temps across the Golden State by Wed; cool & mixed conditions over the PNW before another COLD system drops in from the coast of BC by the end of the week (Fri Apr 9). The weekend of Apr 10-11 is trending just plain miserable. Cold, wet, low snow levels. Ugh. Spring will not be the theme song that weekend! We will need strong coffee, if this verifies.

As the cold troughs of air move east from the PNW into the heartland of the US, we can expect the classic battle of warm/cold air to spawn serious tornado action. THAT is a Spring pattern, historically.

From years ago: “Parents are people who bear infants, bore teenagers, and board newlyweds."

-Rufus
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,862
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Wishing good will and keeping your hopes alive.

The current long range lookout continues to give a glimmer of hope.
Look how the Pacific High has moved north and nudged the Alaskan Sea Low out onto the BC coast. This will bring "Cold" dry air down out of Alaska. The present surface forecast hints of drying conditions on Sunday 4 APR and possibly Monday the 5th. Luck may or may not be with you.
5APR Weather.jpg
 
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Dec 25, 2000
5,007
Hunter Passage 42 Shelter Bay, WA
Admiral says a maybe. Much depends on how her sister is feeling on any given day. Usually she adopts some life threatening medical symptom the holds the Admiral back.
 
May 25, 2012
3,809
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
terry, your pictures and videos are always the best. we are hoping the weather gods are kind. have a great sail
 
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