Hello,
I’ve been hearing about Santa Ana’s for the next few days in SMB and Catalina Island. We are, of course, moored in the Ithsmus. There is a Marine Weather Statement and Small Craft Advisory. We have friends coming this morning via ferry for a few days, but I am wondering if the Flicka can go out in in or stay in the mooring? Probably a stupid idea, thought I’d ask.
Not completely sure of your question but it sounds like you are asking if it is advisable to go out for some day sailing rather than staying in harbor on the mooring.
From this morning's weather statement you linked:
.MARINE...21/529 AM.
For the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate to high
confidence in the forecast. Thru this afternoon, and again late
tonight/Mon morning,
SCA level NE winds are
likely from the
eastern Santa Barbara
Channel south to Santa Monica. There is a
50% chance of
SCA level winds south of Palos Verdes today, and a
20-30% chance of
SCA level NE winds affecting Avalon Harbor. There
is a 40% chance of
SCA level W-NW winds across western SBA
Channel late Tue afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and
seas
will remain below
SCA levels Mon afternoon thru Wed.
The forecast zone we are in is very large so in the statement they try to break down what they think is going to happen in various portions of the zone (in fact they are going to revise the zone boundaries in early 2022 to help clarify their forecasts). So as you can see they are really talking about three different portions of the zone. One area has SCA likely (60-70% chance), one area at 50% and one area (around Avalon) at 20-30%. So you are in the area they say has a 20-30% chance of an SCA.
From looking at the point forecast that Calif Ted posted, and other sources like Windy, Sailflow and Predict Wind, it doesn't look like things will be all that hectic. In fact you might not even get enough wind to really get the Flicka going well.
If I'm right about my understanding of your question I'd probably say go ahead and take your friends out for a sail but keep an eye on the conditions and don't go too far. If things start to pipe up don't hesitate to head back to the mooring.
Have you asked one of the harbor boat operators what they think the local conditions are going to be? They usually have a pretty good sense of what's up. If they think things are going to get sporty then I would follow Alan Gomes' advice and head to the back side.
The caveat, as you know, is that it is the weather and as such is not totally predictable. You obviously have to decide for yourself based on your own experience and comfort level, as welll as the experience and comfort level of your friends.
Have fun over there. It looks like a great couple of days. Are you having Thanksgiving at the harbor reef?