Might be
Go over the side and inspect the shaft for: Marine growth, barnacles, a half corroded shaft zinc(s), fishing line wrapped around the shaft. Then check the prop for the same. If all is clean see if you can move the shaft in cutlass bearing, a very small amount of play is normal. If all of the above seem OK then the shaft may be bent or the prop may have a blade bent or nicked. The prop can be removed under water if the nut is not frozen on, but if the shaft is bent then a haul-out, shaft removed, and taken to a machine shop is the only way to get it set right.