Sailing with NOAA on the FL Gulf

[Ed Schenck]

For two days I studied the weather on NOAA. The forecast was for ENE, 10 to 15 knots. This morning the forecast varied a little, mostly NE turning East. So a nice offshore breeze. Should be ideal, right?

But we know the water is cool and that the forecast is for hot and sunny. Why do they not predict the "sea breeze" then?! It was blowing 12+ from 280 to 300 degrees. Does that look like east or northeast? Should I always plan on an onshore wind when sailing off the west Florida coast?

Offshore at the Tampa buoy conditions were so different:
Combined Dominant Wind Wind
Sea Height (ft) Period(secs) Speed Gust Direction
(kts) (kts)
3.6 8.0 11.7 13.7 110

A friend claims NOAA gets it right about fifty percent of the time. On our recent trip from NC to here half right is not even close to reality. It is so frustrating to try to plan an outing with inexperienced crew.

For those of you who followed my docking woes in the new slip today was a piece of cake. Just my wife and me, no worries mon. More on that later.

 

[Benny]

Sailing with NOOA

Onshore breeze, usually in the afternoon around 3:00PM. Hot over land air rises being replaced by cool over water air.

 

[sailaway78]

NOAA

I have found NOAA weather in the gulf to be wrong as much as they are right. When it gets warmer, you can expect the offshore breezes every afternoon. The NOAA weather bouys will give you accurate real time weather, and sailflo predictions are much better than NOAA.

 

[CalebD]

That would be: http://www.sailflow.com/
Decent real time wind gauges if they are working.

NOAA also has ocean buoys that give the wind, wave height and temperature as well as satellite images. Google the 'NDBC' (national data buoy center). Make your own forecast.

 

[richk]

sea breeze

The sea breeze is quite a "local" effect. Although not on the scale of the puffs you see as cats claws on the water's surface, sea breeze seldom extend far out over the water and their extent varies with thermodynamic effects over the land.

NOAA models, at least those available on the web, do not see the "sea breeze" scale of atmospheric motion. Many forecasters rely almost entirely on NOAA models or derivative information. If one is listening to a real human who bases their forecast on NOAA information then perhaps they would mention such local effects, especially if they have "local" knowledge.

I would be interested in knowing if "Sailflow" relies on its own models or merely "re-scales/interpolates" NOAA gridded info.

Rich in Annapolis

That would be: http://www.sailflow.com/
Decent real time wind gauges if they are working.

NOAA also has ocean buoys that give the wind, wave height and temperature as well as satellite images. Google the 'NDBC' (national data buoy center). Make your own forecast.

 

[Ed Schenck]

Thanks for the Sailflow link. After registering for the freebie here is what I found. I was at the boat just an hour ago and it actually is from the south around 12. KTBW is a Nexrad station in Tampa. So maybe this will help.
"Latest NWS Marine FX by KTBW Valid through 3/31/2009 4:45 PM local time.
tarpon springs to suwannee river out 20 nm - 1016 am edt tue mar 31 2009
.this afternoon...south winds 10 to 15 knots. seas 2 to 4 feet.
bay and inland waters a moderate chop. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms."

 

[Larry Neese]

Ed, been watching your trip, think we sailed by you delivering my daughters boat to the Lower Keys, why play with the finicky breeze on the Mainland come down here where sailboats love to sail.