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Sailing in the time of Coronavirus

Oct 26, 2010
995
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
No one moved in. I had a elderly neighbour pull in the driveway one day to chat and he made a subtle comment that he thought I would have better results if I put it on a longer pole. I took his suggestion and built a hinged flagpole (so I could raise it with the house mounted and bring it down for periodic maintenance).

A few days later the martins came by to check it out and move in.
Correct - the pole needs to be much longer for a Purple Martin House and the hole size has to be "just right" as Goldie Locks would say. I'm not sure about the hole size from the picture but it looks about right (can't tell for sure). Puple Martins are very picky about their home. Once you get it right though you'll have more than you can count. I recall on the submarine tender Simon Lake in Charleston SC, the Squadron Commander had Purple Martin houses put up all around the Weps Station Charleston. Don't know if they ever moved in there but they loved the "eductor holes" on the side of the tender. There seemed like there were hundreds of Purple Martins going in and out of the holes. I assume they made nests in just about every hole. Don't recall many mosquitos around the tender now that I think about it.
 
May 25, 2012
2,801
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
there is a science to properly placing and maintaining a purple martin house. total clean out annually. proper clear swooping room around the house. proper hight. these birds are a hoot to watch. bug busters!
 
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May 7, 2012
735
Hunter e33 Maple Bay, BC
COVID-19 and Boating in the Pacfic NorthWest.
I received an email tonight from a respected local cruising guide publisher “Waggoner Cruising Guide”. I shall abide.

“Our readers have been asking about the current status regarding boating during the Covid-19 pandemic – the “Stay-at-Home Directive” applies to boating activities. The Canada/US border is closed to all non-essential travel. Washington State Parks and BC Parks have closed their facilities and services, and Washington State DNR lands and services are also closed. Many marinas in Washington State and British Columbia are closed to guest moorage, or are in the process of closing. Most of the Fuel docks remain open and are considered a necessity for essential commercial vessel activity. Pleasure vessels may use the fuel docks, but be prepared to follow policies, such as a limit on the number of boats/people allowed to purchase fuel at one time.

The March 25th “Stay-at-Home Directive” applies to all non-essential travel. BC as well as Washington State have issued “Stay-at-Home Directives.” It is important that we all do what is needed to stop this pandemic. The sooner we stay home, the sooner we can get back to boating. We all love being out on the water, but now is not the time. We don’t want to place additional burdens on first-responders and emergency services, attending to boaters that find themselves in trouble.

The good news is that this will pass with time. As things start to open up, check back at waggonerguide.com for the current status regarding border crossings, the reopening of marinas, and access to marine parks.“
 
Jun 14, 2010
1,262
Quorning Dragonfly 1200 home
We all love being out on the water, but now is not the time.
I strongly disagree, provided social distancing can be maintained at the dock and ashore. This isn’t going to jump across the water from boat to boat. Let’s be rational. It spreads by touching something (e.g. fuel pump handle) then touching your face. It can spread as tiny droplets in sneezes and coughs for short distances and limited time.
 
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TomY

Alden Forum Moderator
Jun 22, 2004
2,264
Alden 38' Challenger yawl Rockport Harbor
Posts here have me researching Purple Martin houses, so thanks.

I've recalled, we don't see many Purple Martins so checking, it seems they're very scarce right along the coast. The do follow a migration just inland throughout Maine. I wonder if that has anything to do with or lack of mosquito's here? We often live with windows open and no screens, even overnight, with no bug problems(we do have an early spring gnat problem for a few days followed by a few days of mosquitos, then mostly gone).

Research shows a proper height above ground is 15 to 25 feet. And the house needs to be lowered every season for cleaning. That's not going to happen with this one! But they also recommend the immediate area be more tree less than our spot for easy fly-ins.

I'm thinking Mary Ann's Purple Martin house is zoned for assisted living and no maintenance.
 

TomY

Alden Forum Moderator
Jun 22, 2004
2,264
Alden 38' Challenger yawl Rockport Harbor
I strongly disagree, provided social distancing can be maintained at the dock and ashore. This isn’t going to jump across the water from boat to boat. Let’s be rational. It spreads by touching something (e.g. fuel pump handle) then touching your face. It can spread as tiny droplets in sneezes and coughs for short distances and limited time.
Hard to disagree with that but we're seeing a steady influx of newcombers to our harbor/village. It's obvious that these folks are lured by our nearly 0 reported infections and coming from the pandemic epicenter,

But the truth is, we are not testing. We have almost NO testing equipment or ability. You have to be hospitalized with severe symptoms to get tested. Simply, we don't know the actual infection rate here.

These folks believe they can isolate themselves here (and maybe they can), and they are practicing proper distancing. But they had to get here, they had to get supplies, they had to 'use the docks' so to speak, to get to the water.


So far, we are not restricted beyond using good judgement so I can see myself sailing but that could change.

I'm hoping we've dodged a problem that could overwhelm our medical resources in our area but it's no comforting to know we are way under resourced for testing that tells the real state of our state.
 

dLj

.
Mar 23, 2017
1,091
Hunter 30 Snug Harbor, Lake Champlain
It spreads by touching something (e.g. fuel pump handle) then touching your face. It can spread as tiny droplets in sneezes and coughs for short distances and limited time.
Current indications are that the tiny droplets can be suspended for up to 3 hours. The most direct way to get infected is through our respiratory system. I'd just suggest you bear this in mind with whatever decisions you make.

dj
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
Sep 22, 2018
1,279
Hunter 216 Kingston
I came across this projection and although any model can be vastly off it certainly reinforces for me the guidance to do everything possible to stop the spread.

 
Jun 14, 2010
1,262
Quorning Dragonfly 1200 home
Current indications are that the tiny droplets can be suspended for up to 3 hours. The most direct way to get infected is through our respiratory system. I'd just suggest you bear this in mind with whatever decisions you make.

dj
Yes, you're right. But there's a certain concentration (unknown) required for infection, and there's a process of degradation over time. Google for: "half life" AND corona
 

dLj

.
Mar 23, 2017
1,091
Hunter 30 Snug Harbor, Lake Champlain
Yes, you're right. But there's a certain concentration (unknown) required for infection, and there's a process of degradation over time. Google for: "half life" AND corona
I don't need to google for info. I work directly with the scientists working in this field. But thank you, I am fully aware of the fact we know far less than more.

dj
 
Sep 22, 2018
1,279
Hunter 216 Kingston
Posts here have me researching Purple Martin houses, so thanks.
You went down the rabbit hole researching purple martins and I did the same on lobster; automated processing high pressure extraction - “lazy man lobster”, markets for byproduct etc. Seems to be down to a science now.

I rarely get to enjoy lobster and it’s certainly never get to talk to the fisherman - off the boat fresh. Part of my enjoyment is the long conversations I get to have with dinner companions while I laboriously try to get every last morsel out of that armour they wear ;)
 
Oct 26, 2010
995
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
I don't need to google for info. I work directly with the scientists working in this field. But thank you, I am fully aware of the fact we know far less than more.

dj
That being said, what is your opinion of the projection data provided in the recent link?

As an engineer (but not a scientist or a statistician) I am always skeptical of "projections" when there is no backup info on how the projection was made and what assumptions were made in arriving at the projection. This site seems to have some basis in what the states are doing in the way of recommended or mandatory controls (stay at home orders, etc) so it is the first that I have any respect for that I have seen. It is very scary and highlights the need for effective controls imposed and FOLLOWED. I was dismayed and frankly angry at New Yorkers standing elbow to elbow watching the Comfort come into New York. DeBlasio should quit lecturing us and start doing some enforcing NOW not only for the the city but for the country as a whole.
 
Apr 14, 2009
702
Sabre 28 NH
That being said, what is your opinion of the projection data provided in the recent link?

As an engineer (but not a scientist or a statistician) I am always skeptical of "projections" when there is no backup info on how the projection was made and what assumptions were made in arriving at the projection.
I suspect the projects are an educated guess through the use of mathematics.
 
Oct 22, 2014
12,133
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
the use of mathematics
Probabilities and SWAG... based on similar experiences.

We like our experiences. It takes a disciplined mind not to be subject to our internal biases.
 

dLj

.
Mar 23, 2017
1,091
Hunter 30 Snug Harbor, Lake Champlain
That being said, what is your opinion of the projection data provided in the recent link?

As an engineer (but not a scientist or a statistician) I am always skeptical of "projections" when there is no backup info on how the projection was made and what assumptions were made in arriving at the projection. This site seems to have some basis in what the states are doing in the way of recommended or mandatory controls (stay at home orders, etc) so it is the first that I have any respect for that I have seen. It is very scary and highlights the need for effective controls imposed and FOLLOWED. I was dismayed and frankly angry at New Yorkers standing elbow to elbow watching the Comfort come into New York. DeBlasio should quit lecturing us and start doing some enforcing NOW not only for the the city but for the country as a whole.
I personally will refrain from political conversations. It is not my area of expertise.

With regards to the projections: All models are only as good as the data and knowledge that is going into them. There are always assumptions made as it is impossible to know every possible input. Furthermore, every possible input would likely be impossible to handle in a model so some kind of assumptions are always being made.

With the above said, epidemics/pandemics have been under study for some time at this point, and the current models are taking into consideration as much as is known to the extent possible. Are they prefect? Of course not, and skepticism is a healthy thing.

You also state "no backup info on how" - so an honest question is, if you had it, would you be capable of fully understanding the implications and what may be better needed to be included? I have done a fair amount of work in modeling over a range of applications and the conversations I have with the folk directly involved with this field of modeling is a whole other world. For myself, I can honestly say I am not capable.

What I can say, is that within the realm of modeling experts I know, they are doing the best possible work they can to use these models in the most accurate way possible. I cannot comment on the probably hundreds, if not thousands, of models found by googling around.

dj
 
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Sep 22, 2018
1,279
Hunter 216 Kingston
It wasn’t my intent to trigger a debate about the validity of a projection or increase anyone’s stress level, so I apologize for that.

I found the link to the projection in this news article. The link above does include the ability to view background info on how the independent projection was created so it seemed to me to be a reasonable source of information.

 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
Oct 26, 2010
995
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Thank dj. When I said "no backup info on how" I was referring to those projections that just throw out a number like 200,000 deaths with no indication what-so-ever as to even a basic indication over what was used to arrive at this number. I know that the intricacies of the modeling are out of my pay grade and I would not understand all of their implications.

However, when a number is thrown out like we need 40,000 ventilators, what is that based on? While I don't perport to understand it all it reminds me of a simple thing that we often use in the nuclear industry about the acute radiation dose necessary to kill someone. We use a term called LD50 (Lethal Dose 50) which states that 50% of the people that recieve this acute dose (used to be 500 REM) would die. Underlying that assumption however is that there is no medical attention, a big assumption that is important to understand. In a catastrophy where there are hundreds thousands of exposures (like a nuclear bomb explosion) where few if any people can get the medical attention, then that number has some meaning (ie a worst case scenario). However, for a single acute exposure or a reasonably manageable number of exposures occure where medical attention can be provided the survival rate is much higher for a dose of LD50.

For those of us who don't have access to more inside knowledge, numbers thrown out without even rudamentary explation only make us skeptical. For instance, in the example of 40,000 ventilators needed for New York (significantly different from the projection provided in the link) was that based on no action taken or the blatant stupidity of not observing physical distancing as was displayed in the picture of people watching the Comfort come into port. That is why I am pissed at what I saw on the news. You can't fix stupid.
 
Oct 26, 2010
995
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
So how do you model that? :facepalm:

dj
You can't but I imagine that the "range" shown on the projections takes into account "unknown" or "unable to be adequately estimated" conditions which includes some level of "non-compliance" ie "stupid." Again beyond my pay grade but it looks like the models here and I assume others have confidence levels built in to account for a lot of factors that cannot be easily modeled.