Possible Reasons Why He Had Trouble
From what I have read of his website and logs:1. The boat is definitely too big for single handing. Even with the split rig, there is too much sail and too much rigging to handle. It is a good boat, no doubt (though I hope he has storm covers for all those big windows), but steel is not really necessary, and the size alone guarantees that it will respond more slowly to the helm and will open him up for trouble if he has to do fast sail changes.2. Insufficient passage experience. This is born out by his selection of boat, obviously a boat selected by someone who has little idea what it is like out there in the big tank.3. While we do not know the cause of the dismasting, I would speculate one of two scenarios: I. Too much boat to handle. He was running before heavy winds with breaking seas and broached. It is extremely difficult to stay at the helm for long periods in rough weather, even inside a pilothouse, and the pilot house offers limited visibility aft, where you need to be looking if you are running before the waves on the quarter, like Motessier and Dumas. II. Pitchpoled. If he listened to the "standard advice" i.e., that you should run before a gale, then he probably pitchpoled, JUST LIKE the Smeetons did twice in exactly the same area in the Tzu Hang--when they followed the "standard advice" that is still going around. Lots of people still believe you can't heave-to in strong winds--rediculous. The problem with the west-east passage of the horn is that if you heave-to when the waves start breaking (as you should) you will be hove-to much of the time. This isn't what most sailors expect to be doing. The fact that he had drogues aboard indicates that his plan was to run before the waves--of course, in the southern ocean, this doesn't work. The fact that he has sustained an injury leads me to believe in the pitch-pole idea--read about the Queen's Birthday Storm, and the 50 foot yacht that was running and was picked up by a following sea and dropped 70 feet straight vertical into the ocean. The skipper had his thigh crushed against the steering pedestal. For all the quotations of John Vigor, HIS sea mileage isn't exactly impressive, and in his books he INCORRECTLY says that the sea and wind can reach a state where you can't heave to and you must run before the wind. This is absurd. Running with the wind and waves just keeps you in the storm longer. Most typhoons and depressions move at about 5 - 8 knots. If you run before the storm at 5-6 knots, you will be in the worst of it for days on end.If you heave-to, going 1 knot or less, it will pass over you in a day. There is no logic to the idea that eventually you must quit the hove-to position and run. Yet, Mr. Vigor and others STILL propagate this preposterous position.The only reason to run is because you are racing, and you are willing to risk EVERYTHING for speed(and you have chase boats and crews ready to bail you out if something goes wrong!!). By the way, everyone is concerned about Ken being out there with no rig in that terrible weather. Every account I have read of this kind of dismasting in the southern ocean indicates that the skippers were better off after the dismasting--the boat is being tossed around, but nobody seems to have any more problems--if they can jury rig and get out of there. I think Ken will be OK until he is rescued, assuming his injury is under control. I'm hoping more will be learned from everyone from Ken's experience. I also hope he gets rescued. I also think everyone should take seriously the fact that OTHER PEOPLE are now risking their lives to save Ken, that we have a responsibility to make sure we are ready, properly equipped, and properly experienced to take on such a challenge as this. And also keep in mind that we (this includes Ken) don't know how much we don't know until we try something. From his point of view, he was ready, and had enough experience. There is something GOOD to be said for someone who tries...and one can validly criticize those of us (myself included) who analyze and criticize him AFTER the fact...20-20 hindsight. I respect his sense of adventure and courage.Paul H.