This is my perspective on what is happening
It relates to what John Vigor calls the "Black Box" theory. John Vigor wrote a book called "The Practical Mariner’s Book of Knowledge". In that book he puts forth a theory about seamanship, which he calls Vigor’s Black Box Theory. The Theory is that there is no such thing as luck at sea. Luck is earned by "diligent and constant acts of seamanship." Every time the chart is double-checked, the turnbuckles inspected, the chafing gear renewed, the seacocks cleaned and greased, the seaman earns a "chit" that goes into an invisible black box, which is aboard every boat. When things go wrong, and all of that seaman’s skill and preparation have been taxed completely, chits are withdrawn from the box. The skipper has no control over the withdrawal; they withdraw themselves, as they see fit. Only the seaman with a good supply of chits has the "luck" to survive, because he had the chits to spend. But he had best start to replenish his supply immediately, because they could be needed at any time, and the sea does not extend credit. Because boat-related activities include such a very broad spectrum of vessels and waters, seamanship means different things to different people. Common to all definitions of seamanship is that it is inextricably related to safety – that while a good boat, well-equipped, will certainly give its crew an advantage when things go wrong, it is the additional preparedness of the boat and the skill of its skipper and crew that allow it to come through unscathed. No matter whose wisdom you read or how seamanship is defined, there seem to be three elements that must coincide to propagate seamanship: forethought, a set of skills, and equipment. The latter is the easiest to come by and is often mistaken for seamanship. The two former consume a lifetime to develop and that is the reason that seamanship is an art. The rest of the write up on this subject can be read here. I recommend the quick read, it is well written http://www.landfallnavigation.com/seamanship.html I think the analogy is valid and Ken did not put enough chits in the "Black Box" and earned his way through a tight spot. His box was relatively empty, I think he prepared his boat, but didn't have the seamanship skills of an experienced ocean sailor. For instance what caused his boat to lose his mast and break his steering maybe a more seasoned sailor would have sailed his boat in such a way to prevent what happened to his boat (drouge, run before the seas, heave to, etc) only a seasoned skipper knows whats best for his boat in certain conditions. As for Caleb's quote from Tristan I think it might sound good and have a nice ring for a Publisher to Quote in bold on the inside cover of a book , but I don't necesarily agree with it. How would you categorize Chichester or Moitessier? When they sailed around the world I would not have called them pessimistic or novices. Just the contrary, they were seasoned sailors and optimistic in themselves and their boats to do the trip. Maybe a novice in a complete non-stop solo navigation but not a novice sailor for long ocean trips. How would you categorize Ellen MacArthur who just broke the around the world record. So I think Tristan (ever the one to stretch the truth) Jones has a nice sounding little Quote there, but it lacks a little substance.
