R2AK (Race to Alaska)

[marcham]

Thanks! Both are useful. It would help if I knew the geography better. But in poking around in Open CPN, imaps, the “Official” Chart I’m getting better at finding places. I’ve never been anywhere near these places.
A curiosity I have is whether participants will navigate out to the Straight of Georgia proper or use some of the passages along and between the islands there such as the Swanson Passage. I wonder if there is relief from an adverse current there. And it appears to be a shorter route.
I’m also trying to gage at approximately what time the average boat, say a Santa Cruze 27, would get to the Seymour Narrows and what the tide will be there. This seems to be a critical point in the race.
Another area of interest is where the current will change from being primarily influenced by the Straight of Juan De Fuca to being influenced from Queen Charlotte Sound.

I think everything you're looking for, in terms of local knowledge, is contained in the sailing directions:

https://www.charts.gc.ca/publications/sailingdirections-instructionsnautiques-eng.html

Select the Pacific Coast tab...

I vagely remember a plug-in for OpenCPN that does currents?

Keep in mind that on the East side of Vancouver Island tidal slack is not necessarily equal to current slack.... you can have several knots of current in Campbell River at slack tide.

 

[marcham]

Set LuckGrib to use HRDPS model (Canadian high-resolution model), not ECWMF

Good advice.... HRDPS is also available here to boaters:

MSC AniMet

MSC AniMet is a simple tool enabling users to interact with MSC Open Data weather data and create custom weather animations for any area in the world. The resulting animations can be downloaded and shared with a permalink.

eccc-msc.github.io

See attached for more marine met information for BC (including map of reporting stations).

 

[dLj]

@shemandr - thanks for starting this thread - it's a great thread!

dj

 

[BCsailor-skier]

No, ECMFW model is not the best for British Columbia waters. You need HRDPS which OpenCPN grib downloader does not access.

BUT: You can easily download the HRDPS gribs from here: Téléchargeur GRIB - Côte Ouest (BC)

then load them into OpenCPN grib viewer.

When the race starts, the R2AK website will have a link to follow: HOME - RACE TO ALASKA

 

[BCsailor-skier]

Good advice.... HRDPS is also available here to boaters:

MSC AniMet

MSC AniMet is a simple tool enabling users to interact with MSC Open Data weather data and create custom weather animations for any area in the world. The resulting animations can be downloaded and shared with a permalink.

eccc-msc.github.io

See attached for more marine met information for BC (including map of reporting stations).

MSC Animet is THE source for Canadian weather. But it is quite complicated.
Here is MSC Animet HRDPS WIND displayed using wind barbs:

MSC AniMet

MSC AniMet is a simple tool enabling users to interact with MSC Open Data weather data and create custom weather animations for any area in the world. The resulting animations can be downloaded and shared with a permalink.

eccc-msc.github.io

 

[BCsailor-skier]

see also:

Marine weather forecasts for British Columbia: Sources for band-limited access (e.g., text forecasts for cell phone, HF-SSB/HAM and/or Satellite Phone) [Updated June, 2017]

British Columbia, marine weather forecasts, HF-SSB radio, text forecasts, HAM radio, Sailmail, pactor modem email, saildocs, weather radio, GRIB

sailing-pelagia.blogspot.com

skip down to "band-limited options" ...

 

[marcham]

No, ECMFW model is not the best for British Columbia waters. You need HRDPS which OpenCPN grib downloader does not access.

BUT: You can easily download the HRDPS gribs from here: Téléchargeur GRIB - Côte Ouest (BC)

then load them into OpenCPN grib viewer.

When the race starts, the R2AK website will have a link to follow: HOME - RACE TO ALASKA

More precisely:

HRDPS is an excellent model for short term weather inside of 48 hrs

ECMWF has proven a good medium term forecast on the west coast, i goes out to about 15 days (depending on where you get your data from).

I've also been comparing PWAI (available through Predict Wind), and it's proven very reliable inside of 4-5 days, although it doesn't have the resolution of the two models listed above.

 

[marcham]

see also:

Marine weather forecasts for British Columbia: Sources for band-limited access (e.g., text forecasts for cell phone, HF-SSB/HAM and/or Satellite Phone) [Updated June, 2017]

British Columbia, marine weather forecasts, HF-SSB radio, text forecasts, HAM radio, Sailmail, pactor modem email, saildocs, weather radio, GRIB

sailing-pelagia.blogspot.com

skip down to "band-limited options" ...

Good stuff .... although even with Starlink Standby all the graphical weather products come through easily. I've also called the BC forecaster direct over Starlink Standby (via my carrier's wifi calling feature).

Does anyone still use HF voice, Pactor or Winlik? I don't think I've checked my Airmail account in 10-15 years... It seems most cruisers planning a group crossing these days setup a Facebook group, Signal chat or something similar.

 

[BCsailor-skier]

I regularly use the links direct to the text marine forecasts (by humans) AND current conditions ("Summaries") ... using cell, very fast.

SpotWx very good/fast, with obvious access to all models for a spot forecast: SpotWx | Home

Yes, I occasionally use my HAM Winlink to download text forecasts (when no cell and VHF nonexistent or unclear). Don't have Starlink.... HRDPS too large for Winlink....

I do use Zoleo sattelite communicator, and would pay BoltWx subscription for any month I was out of cell/vhf (up North) so that I can get HRDPS spot forecasts (works also with InReach): BoltWX - Backcountry Weather

Models like ECMWF are fine for off the coasts of Vancouver Island etc, but do not take into account the complicated geography of BC coasts (mountains, headlands, inlets, etc). SpotWX provides indication of spatial extent (resolution) and number of days for each model predictions

 

[jssailem]

No, ECMFW model is not the best for British Columbia waters. You need HRDPS

Good advice.... HRDPS

Interesting. The effort to select a Weather Prediction model ignores the basics of weather forecasting. I suggest that you look at the problem differently.

Both the ECMFW (or, if you prefer, the Canadian GDPS) model and the HRDPS model (which is a subset of the GDPS) have relevance to boaters trying to navigate waters from Port Townsend to Ketchikan.

The ECMFW Model provides a macro look at the weather. It is based on approximately a 9km grid. The model provides high confidence utilization when planning a route over a period of 3 to 10 days. The model is updated 4 times in 24 hours (Run four times daily (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). It provides smoother, more reliable, broader patterns and serves as an excellent longer-range context for developing weather patterns.

By contrast, the HRDPS model uses a micro look at conditions. It is based on approximately a 2.5km grid. The model is a regional/limited-area model focused on a pan-Canadian domain. I think of it as looking at the weather through a telescope. The much finer grid (higher resolution) allows it to better resolve small-scale features, complex terrain (mountains, coastlines, valleys), orographic lift, and localized effects. The model is updated 4 times in 24 hours (Run four times daily (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). This model provides great short-range forecasting for up to 48 hours at a time.

Both models rely on advanced physics, data assimilation, and high-performance computing. When combined, they are valuable for operational forecasting — HRDPS for detailed local guidance in its domain, ECMWF as a global benchmark.

Products like LuckGrib provide you with an easy method to download GRIB files from both models and then test the impact of each model on your sail plan. They provide information. You still need to decide which route to take. When the models are aligned, it can be an easy decision. When the models conflict, the challenge is greater.

Looking at the overall picture, you may find that one route is better for 10 days of sailing than for the next 48 hours. Then there is the issue of tides and boat damage. All of this is what makes this race the adventure of a lifetime.

 

[BCsailor-skier]

Don't disagree. HRDPS only good for 48 hrs. For longer, one has to use other models (e.g., Canadian RDPS 10km resolution out to 3.5 days. Canadian GDPS 15km resolution out to 10 days.)

Sub point: if sailing in Canada, why not use Canadian forecasts?

But BC marine forecast reliability beyond a few days? Environment Canada "extended" forecasts Extended Marine Forecasts for the Pacific waters – Environment Canada go out 5 days. Days 4&5 very often change.

 

[marcham]

This thread should almost become pinned for Canadian marine weather and trip planning...

Maybe I can attempt a slight shift and encourage our southerly neighbours to only use VHF 16 for hailing and taking the chat off to a working channel (8, 9, 68,73, ...)

 

[jssailem]

As I suggested, the GDPS and the ECMFW are both good for a greater overall context of the global conditions that drive the regional weather. The GDPS is only updated 2 times daily and has a resolution of 15km (0.15º grid)
My preference is for the more frequent 4 times daily for the ECMFW and a resolution of ~9km

When looking for weather data, I seek a variety of sources and compare the results. I look for anomalies and then try to understand the reason for this event.

One can develop a comparison chart of features, looking for reasons to choose one model over the other. But why, when the exercise can be better seen by using both through an integrated app like LuckGrib, and then solving for the best sailing route based on the data.

 

[jssailem]

Maybe I can attempt a slight shift and encourage our southerly neighbours to only use VHF 16 for hailing and taking the chat off to a working channel (8, 9, 68,73, ...)

Man, if you could do that, you might get the nickname "Miracle Worker".
It seems that the airwaves are even more confused as I get onto the Boundary Passage.

 

[jssailem]

Here is another video on YouTube about the race. You see what the beginning was, two guys with a unique idea, and how competitors through the years have made their way.

It is a documentary from 2022 and is free with ads.