-
Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
PTC 9 --> Tropical Storm Harold
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
I know that the confidence is a bit shaky, but the Canadian model also shows the disturbance..
Your comments?
It bears watching. Saturday and Sunday are a bit far for the models to predict. I am not seeing it on the NOAA charts yet. It bears watching.
On tropicaltidbits, you can look at each individual run of models. If I’m interpreting it correctly, the long range (240hr) ECMWF is run once per day at 00z. This system has only appeared on the last run 00z/22Aug, before that it was forecast as a low in the western Gulf. Let’s see what the 00z/23Aug run looks like.
It is to early to know what the weather will be in the Gulf on 7-10 days from now. The long range look suggests something may happen. Bitting off a little bit of your challenge during this early time frame may be warranted. Kind of like trying to eat the whole pot of gumbo. Not in one sitting, but a little bite at a time.