Post Sandy-repair, replace, or retire
- Thread starter Andy1237
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Hi Andy:
Your question is a more direct approach to a thread I started a couple of weeks ago asking if "Sandy" was a game changer for boating.
Just seems to me that most owners of medium/larger size sailboats (say 30' +) have been in the boating scene for along time. Probably a major percentage of us are between late middle age to (very) well on in years. We have long been engaged with our boats and the alternative lifestyle. But if this age group owner of a severely damaged/destroyed sailboat happens to be 60+, and maybe he/she already has been thinking not too many years of interest left anyway, and the activity is expensive in this Ben Bernake 0% retirement interest environment, and the spouse and family aren't showing much enthusiasm anymore; will he/she continue with boat ownership?? And if not, seems to me that there will be fewer 30 or 40 somethings with interest than 30-40 years ago when many of us developed our "bug". I grew up on the San Francisco peninsula. In the late 1960's, the Redwood City harbor was swarming with boats of all shapes, types and sizes every weekend. The harbor was generally crowded. Now, maybe only a few boats out in the harbor. And those are often part of a pay-per day program of some sort rather than owners out sailing.
So Sandy removes "x" boaters from the activity along the northern East Coast. New younger people with the skill and interest to replace them = (say) "1/2x".
Certainly seems to me that every Sandy event will be more of an issue for boating.
Your question is a more direct approach to a thread I started a couple of weeks ago asking if "Sandy" was a game changer for boating.
Just seems to me that most owners of medium/larger size sailboats (say 30' +) have been in the boating scene for along time. Probably a major percentage of us are between late middle age to (very) well on in years. We have long been engaged with our boats and the alternative lifestyle. But if this age group owner of a severely damaged/destroyed sailboat happens to be 60+, and maybe he/she already has been thinking not too many years of interest left anyway, and the activity is expensive in this Ben Bernake 0% retirement interest environment, and the spouse and family aren't showing much enthusiasm anymore; will he/she continue with boat ownership?? And if not, seems to me that there will be fewer 30 or 40 somethings with interest than 30-40 years ago when many of us developed our "bug". I grew up on the San Francisco peninsula. In the late 1960's, the Redwood City harbor was swarming with boats of all shapes, types and sizes every weekend. The harbor was generally crowded. Now, maybe only a few boats out in the harbor. And those are often part of a pay-per day program of some sort rather than owners out sailing.
So Sandy removes "x" boaters from the activity along the northern East Coast. New younger people with the skill and interest to replace them = (say) "1/2x".
Certainly seems to me that every Sandy event will be more of an issue for boating.
Hurr. Sandy-Insurance what do do?
Andy/RardiH
RardiH, I think you could not have made a better assessment of sailboat owners, in fact I think you had a direct hit on the situation.
Perhaps one of the greater reasons for the population of owners you describe stems from the fact that the 30-40 something crowd has Fin. and family responsibilities with a work force that is not as stable as those who are now in the 50 and 60's
During the 2003-2006 era, nearly anyone could get a loan to buy a boat (used or new), just sign on the dotted line-not so easy today!
One thing is sure, the cost of a new boat in the 30 ft+ range has already jumped in price and the cost of fiberglass etc is going to force the new boat prices up. One only need look at a new 30 ft Cat @$175,000 as I understand it from the Annapolis boat show.
This means that a good used boat, while the market has be seemingly to decline or be flat, will probably rise due to the above in combination with inflation which will almost have to occur with the gov. deficit.
Conclusion: There could not be a better time than now, for the 30-40 crowd to enter into the market (they do not have to buy new) and I wonder why this group is not targeted more. I am not sure if they even understand the adventure is there and if this is the case, that's really too bad.
The 60 something crowd should try and get their kids interested with that check and establish a new crowd of captains. All this analysis and I am in no way connected to the business, I just enjoy sailing and thinking about the adventures that are out there to be had.
alanwir
Andy/RardiH
RardiH, I think you could not have made a better assessment of sailboat owners, in fact I think you had a direct hit on the situation.
Perhaps one of the greater reasons for the population of owners you describe stems from the fact that the 30-40 something crowd has Fin. and family responsibilities with a work force that is not as stable as those who are now in the 50 and 60's
During the 2003-2006 era, nearly anyone could get a loan to buy a boat (used or new), just sign on the dotted line-not so easy today!
One thing is sure, the cost of a new boat in the 30 ft+ range has already jumped in price and the cost of fiberglass etc is going to force the new boat prices up. One only need look at a new 30 ft Cat @$175,000 as I understand it from the Annapolis boat show.
This means that a good used boat, while the market has be seemingly to decline or be flat, will probably rise due to the above in combination with inflation which will almost have to occur with the gov. deficit.
Conclusion: There could not be a better time than now, for the 30-40 crowd to enter into the market (they do not have to buy new) and I wonder why this group is not targeted more. I am not sure if they even understand the adventure is there and if this is the case, that's really too bad.
The 60 something crowd should try and get their kids interested with that check and establish a new crowd of captains. All this analysis and I am in no way connected to the business, I just enjoy sailing and thinking about the adventures that are out there to be had.
alanwir
I think this time around because of the sour economy more folks than in other storms will retire from boating at least temporarily. There will be an upsurge of salvage parts which may not be good for parts manufacturers. Marinas and marine service providers in the area will see a corresponding reduction in business. On a national basis I do not think boating in general will be affected as the Sandy losses are localized. Have not heard any official numbers of affected crafts but would anticipate they are a small percentage of the country's boat population.
My experience after hurricane Charley was that everyone I know replaced or repaired their boats. That said, many used the opportunity to switch to powerboats rather than sail. Also, we were for the most part, a fairly affluent community with good insurance and resources beyond insurance to finance a recovery.
For many it will be difficult to get back into boating if you are trying to rebuild your home or business or worrying about whether or not your job will be there.
For many it will be difficult to get back into boating if you are trying to rebuild your home or business or worrying about whether or not your job will be there.
As sailors age they start loosing physical attributes required to handle a sailboat and start looking foe power driven crafts like trawlers. I can understand how if faced with a choice many in the 65 to 85 age group may opt for a switch. My concern at this point is that the economy turned sour in 2007 and has not yet recovered and that may cause a few people with checks in hand to decide to sit on the fence for a while and depending on their age, maybe for good.
Because of the weak economy, many will be forced to be check cashers and put the money towards other life's concerns.
With a shortage of undamaged boats in the area, used prices for good boats should go up, making a void between the insurance check, and the reality of another boat.
I bet a large percentage of folks will cash the check, and drop out.
With a shortage of undamaged boats in the area, used prices for good boats should go up, making a void between the insurance check, and the reality of another boat.
I bet a large percentage of folks will cash the check, and drop out.
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