Pacific North West - November departure From Tillamook Bay to Mexico - Good or Bad idea?

[AirSeaCaptain]

A couple who are relatively new to sailing want to head south to Mexico ASAP Oct 31st - December 2026 ... Jan, Feb 2027— honest thoughts?

Boat: 1989 Hunter 35.5 Legend, 27 hp Yanmar 3GM, wing keel, 4'6" draft, spade rudder. Sitting in Tillamook Bay, OR.

Steering: Hand steering, No autopilot, No Hydrovane .

Safety gear: USCG minimum. No EPIRB, No AIS, No Life raft, No immersion suits.
"Has VHF radio, Cell phone with GPS, and Plenty of Flares".

Crew: 2

Experience: ( first time on the Pacific Ocean Sailing experience, Prior experience mostly motoring & light sailing in the prior 9 months to the north of Victoria BC ). No offshore or heavy weather experience. Prior to this no sailing experience.

Plan: Head south to Mexico asap, staying within 12 miles of the coast.

Recent trip history:
1) Neah Bay to West Port WA , average speed 3.0 knots motoring & sail roughly ~38 hours, Not able to sleep
2) West Port to Tillamook OR, average speed 3.5 knots motoring & sail roughly ~28 hours, Not able to sleep,

Last trip Update : Engine quit in the channel to Tillamook. Had to raise the Genoa to turn the boat around & the tide pushed them out, they were able to restart but did not have enough power to make it in under our own steam. Mayday call to USCG who towed into port. They say the fuel filters were changed & breather tube unkinked & now the engine seems to be running "better than ever".

Budget is essentially zero right now — they say they are not in a position to buy anything before they leave to head south

Note: they said Luke From Youtube "Sailing Song Bird" did it in October & they say they have other friends who say its safe to go.

 

[dLj]

I'd say with friends like that, who needs enemies...

The strong El Niño this year is not working in their favor. One thing you haven't listed is their ability to forecast weather or if they might be using a weather forecaster. We are now pretty much in November - October is about to say bye-bye... Did Luke do his trip in a year of El Niño or in a year of La Niña? I'm not familiar with "Sailing Song Bird" and likely won't look it up...

That's a tough coast in November if my memory serves me...

With what you have posted - I would say it's a bad idea.

But who am I to give advice to another sailor????

dj

 

[rgranger]

Darwin is alive and well

 

[shemandr]

The OP didn't say how many stops if any. I would say without stopping for rest it is a bad idea. And it sounds like the boat is ill equipped for ocean sailing.
There is no indication that the fuel system was cleaned and that they are relying on filters to keep the engine running. Again a bad idea.
No EPIRB, no AIS, no raft, no immersion suits - you don't need all of those but 2 of 4 would be a lot more safe. Does the VHF at least have DSC? What about GPS? Cell phone doesn't seem adequate 12 miles out? Two people on watch 24 hours would be hard pressed to be diligent at keeping watch for collision avoidance.
I don't know anything about Tillamock Bay but I can't imagine the USCG was too happy with a Mayday call for a stalled engine on a sailboat.

 

[jssailem]

Tillamook to San Jose, Cabo San Lucas is 1900 nm of ocean. Some of the waters are the noted for creating serious danger for seasoned skippers. That is a long trip. Does not sound like they are well prepared for such an adventure.

I guess they either learn on the water or become a statistic in the Coast Guard record book.

 

[Stu Jackson]

Manifestly unsafe voyage.

I did SF to BC in 2016 in a relatively calm August.

They don't necessarily need a weather forecaster if they have internet connectivity in harbor to check windy before they leave, but if they're out more than 48 hours the weather is going to change so they'll need offshore connectivity.

No AP is a disaster waiting to happen.

Their track record is less than encouraging. It is horrifying.

Why didn't they motor? There's fuel in Tillamook!

Going 12 miles out is stupid because they could harbor hop daily from 6 miles out and only "waste" an hour coming back in. People go 12 miles out when they are planning non-stop. These people are not equipped to do that.

Garibaldi is a nice town. I suggest they stay there.

 

[garymalmgren]

RE; Steering: Hand steering, No autopilot, No Hydrovane .

This is the one that would put me off this or ANY long trip.
Gary

 

[Ralph Johnstone]

They say the fuel filters were changed & breather tube unkinked

Damned garden hose will tend to do that.

My greater concern would be that the boat is in poor shape but these two are too inexperienced to know just how bad shape it really is.

Darwin is alive and well

And sadly that's how evolution works. Let's hope they haven't had time to reproduce yet.

The real tradgedy here is that well trained, able bodied heroes from the Coast Guard will be willing to risk their very lives to save them if worse comes to worse. And this should never, ever happen.

 

[Will Gilmore]

Ralph has a good point.

My greater concern would be that the boat is in poor shape but these two are too inexperienced to know just how bad shape it really is.

I don't know that stretch of coast very well, I rented a house in Mendocino County once, and back then, the residence refused to install cell service. Maybe they have it now?! Their phone's GPS tracking should work regardless.

People have done it. People have done it long before any electronics. But to attempt such a trip when one can't even afford an easily available EPIRB...

There is no indication that the fuel system was cleaned and that they are relying on filters to keep the engine running.

Exactly. It isn't the trip, or the boat, or the conditions, it's the sailors. They are demonstrating a lack of fitness for this journey. They are unprepared.

They will probably make it.

-Will

 

[jssailem]

I count 6 storm developing in the North Pacific over the next 15 days. They will produce 4 m to 6 m plus waves out of the west all along the route. Wind fields range from 5 to 30 knots sustained during the passage of each storm, during a 24 to 48-hour period. I seriously doubt they could find an experienced delivery captain willing to go on this journey.

Reminds me of something I read:
“Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread.” Alexander Pope 1711

 

[Richard19068]

There is a saying that God watches over children and fools. I assume these people are not children but if they go as they are perhaps they will be protected by being in the other category.

 

[dlochner]

There is a saying that God watches over children and fools. I assume these people are not children but if they go as they are perhaps they will be protected by being in the other category.

I always heard it as drunks and fools.

 

[FastOlson]

I betcha I'm not the only poster here with multiple trips up n down the WA coast in the summer and fall, over the last several decades. Even in well prepared boats with experienced crews this can vary a lot - from slick smooth to rough as heck. I did make the trip once at the end of September with no wind and low swells, but never any later. The weather windows get smaller and smaller and -no surprise - insurers lose all interest in covering you.

 

[capta]

IMO, the Pacific coast north of Cape Conception is one of the most treacherous bodies of water on the planet, with very few easily navigated places to get out of the weather, which are far enough apart that weather forecasting may not be warning enough.
I fished that coast commercially, as a teen, so I'm speaking from experience. Fortunately, I had some good captains, aboard boats specifically built to take the worst weather that coast could dish out, and get their crews home safely.
I know of one couple that was within a few hundred miles of finishing a circumnavigation, but called for the USCG and were airlifted from their boat off Washington or Oregon.

 

[mermike]

This guy was on the hard next to me in Port Townsend 10 days ago. The boat is now on the beach in Pacific City. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. It's a stupid idea. They are under-equipped and more importantly under-experienced. I say that as someone who is also under-experienced to do that trip this time of year.

They missed their window. Book a flight. Or get work until spring.

 

[capta]

Plan: Head south to Mexico asap, staying within 12 miles of the coast.

Some basic thoughts.
Should a front arrive a bit sooner than expected and you can't reach one of the very few, easily entered safe harbors on that coast, consider this.
Your jib fails and destroys the foil so that it could not be used to raise another. Then the reefed main has a seam or two go, after no one knows how many hours of rubbing against a shroud since new, and there you are in 50 or 60 knots with no sails. In a panic you start your engine and wrap a line around the prop, taking it out of the equation.
Under bare poles let's assume you could be drifting between 3 and 5 knots toward the rocks, there are very few nice sandy beaches on this coast, unlike the east coast. You call for help and if you are really lucky there is a USCG station that can get a chopper manned, off the ground and out to you, how long would you expect it to take? An hour, perhaps an hour and a half? Already on the continental shelf, the water is shoaling as you close on the coast, and conditions are deteriorating quickly.
With luck it is still possible to evacuate you by chopper, if not they must send a cutter, which will take even more time. I think you can extrapolate from there.
Guess what sinks the most boats. ROCKS!

 

[jssailem]

The above occurrence is not a one off event.
Here is a news link from 06 November 2025 at Rockaway Beach, Oregon

 

[shemandr]

Looking at the surf behind it I think washing up on Rockaway Beach was the best part of his day!

 

[dkinzer]

Also, the Oregon coast is expecting king tides around the third week of November. That would be a factor for going into or out of any of the few protected harbors that are deep enough for a sailboat. The entrance to virtually all of the harbors along the Oregon coast have a bar that must be crossed at the correct time and, depending on when you arrive, it could be six hours or more before a safe crossing window presents itself.

 

[jssailem]

washing up on Rockaway Beach

The image of Rockaway Beach was in 2025. The guy Post #15 above is near Pacific City. Rockaway Beach is about 40nm north of Pacific City. Pacific City is about 40 nm north of the nearest major harbor Newport, OR. There are marine services in Newport. More importantly, it has a good bar to cross.

If this was you on the beach, what would you be doing?