Northeast sailors...

[Marc14857]

My Daughter's Wedding Sept 5th

OK

Need you all to keep positive vibes that Earl heads out to sea. My Daughters wedding is on Sunday Sept 5th in Old Saybrook Ct. Lot's of folks heading in from all over the country and several of us planning on bringing our boats up from Mystic Ct on Friday and Saturday. We want Earl to stay far far far offshore!:dance:

 

[Ross]

Re: My Daughter's Wedding Sept 5th

earl seems to be traveling farther west than earilier forecasts indicated. We still have a couple of days to watch.

 

[Gary_H]

The current track takes it north of me skirting the outer banks but we all know how that can change. I'll just have to keep a close watch to see if I have to take off work to check on the boat. Being close friends with the dockmaster helps. I know he will do whats necessary to secure my boat if I can't get there in time.

 

[Alan]

Furled headsails and mainsail covers are no match for a hurricane. Biminis, dodgers, awnings are all items that should be removed if you expect to use them again. No point in leaving all that added windage where no good can come from it not to mention the added stress it puts on the mooring and dock lines.

 

[gpd955]

Furled headsails and mainsail covers are no match for a hurricane. Biminis, dodgers, awnings are all items that should be removed if you expect to use them again. No point in leaving all that added windage where no good can come from it not to mention the added stress it puts on the mooring and dock lines.

Agreed. I usually take mine off for major storms. It's amazing that some people with some pretty expensive boats don't prepare at all. We had a guy 2 docks away do nothing for his boat a few years ago and his jib was shredded on the furler of his Hunter 41. He never even came to take care of it afterwards and it was so bad that we ended up boarding his boat and dropping the sail because we were tired of the 3 weeks of noise.

 

[jfmid]

Please help a beginner understand some things. The talk of Earl has gotten me concerned and reading all the posts I pick up a common theme of doubling the lines.
I live off of the Barnegat Bay, NJ about 2 miles up Mill Creek on a lagoon. I have my boat against a bulkhead behind my house on the lagoon that rises and falls about 2 feet with the changing of the tides. I have bumpers on the pilings and mooring whips holding her off during "normal" weather. The mooring whips are 14' and rated for 10,000 lbs. My 27' Oday is said to be displacing 5375lbs. I have (4) 8" cleats firmly bolted to the bulkhead and my boat has cleats at the bow and stern but no midship cleat. I have spring lines from the starboard bow cleat to a mid dock cleat and from the starboard stern cleat to a mid dock cleat. I also run a line from the bow and stern to the 2 cleats one ahead and one behind the boat respectively. So all 4 dock cleats are used and the stern and bow cleats on the starboard side are doubled. How do I double up on this as the stern and bow cleats are already full??? Can I go from the port cleats??? This may be a stupid question but I dont know if I can go across the back of the boat when it is against the bulkhead and across the top of the bow. Will this hold it too tight if there is such a thing??? I am also concerned about a storm surge which would place the water line at or near the tops of the bulkhead pilings which I imagine would be catastrophic for the hull. There are many many boats, mostly power but a few sail in this area. I asked my neighbor a week ago what he would do if a major storm came and he said he would just ride it out. Any suggestions on what I could do short of a haul out???
Ps I can take my boom off rather easily so perhaps that would reduce my wind profile a bit.

 

[Roger Long]

Please help a beginner understand some things.

Storm surge from a direct hit could be several feet above normal high tide if the storm makes a direct hit at the right time. Wind pressure at 75 mph is a bit over 20 pounds per square foot so a piece of 4 x 8 plywood could lift a couple people in the air and carry them away.

You do the math.

If you have a trailer boat, haul it.

 

[Ross]

Storm surge from a direct hit could be several feet above normal high tide if the storm makes a direct hit at the right time. Wind pressure at 75 mph is a bit over 20 pounds per square foot so a piece of 4 x 8 plywood could lift a couple people in the air and carry them away.

You do the math.

If you have a trailer boat, haul it.

And the force increases exponentially. so at 80mph it is close to 23psf

 

[Bill Roosa]

Hurricane center

Google "hurricane center"
The hurricane center has updates every three hours. the latest for the Chesapeake Bay is 0-5% chance of hurricane force winds, 5-10% chance of 50 MPH winds and 20% chance of storm force (30ish) winds.
Also, for the bay the winds would be out of the north if Earl passes east of us. That will push the water out of the bay and result in lower than normal water not higher. Only a direct hit or the center passing west of the bay would cause high water levels.
We are still a long way from knowing for sure and the storm track error does include the center passing directly over the bay.
I'm in a slip behind a southward facing breakwater with land to the north and for one am not that worried. We saw 50 MPH winds several times last winter and no dammage to anybody.

 

[zeehag]

friends of mine in louisiana place an anchor in the middle of the canals by which their boats sit..one places an anchor in the canaal and one on landbehind the transom. that keeps them off the docks when the surge hits- one has a side tie--he puts anchor out to keep hull off dock--during katrina--they were gooooood.....no sweat--make sure you have a good anchor set out to keep you off the bulkhead!
here in sin diego we get occasional 90 mph winds in our storms from pnw in el nino years--the roller furling stands well with wraps around it--but i wouldnt leave it there in the hurrycame stuff--those are a bit meaner than our unnamed stuff--we just get them more frequently--and only in the winter. you guys get the complication of storm surge with yours--we are protected from that...
i hope you guys all come out clean and puuurrrty.....be safe and maay the sea gods watch over you!!

 

[jfmid]

Storm surge from a direct hit could be several feet above normal high tide if the storm makes a direct hit at the right time. Wind pressure at 75 mph is a bit over 20 pounds per square foot so a piece of 4 x 8 plywood could lift a couple people in the air and carry them away.

You do the math.

If you have a trailer boat, haul it.

Point well taken, minimize surface area for wind to affect. Boat is not trailerable. What about extra lines given my setup???

 

[Dan Johnson]

East Coasters...

just watched a weather presentation on CNN for Hur. Earl. It still hasn't made the turn north and has been heading more westerly than expected. The cone of predicted tracks has moved westerly as a consequence.

Prudence and experience dictates that Wednesday will be a day to strip the sails and canvas, drop the canvas's framework to the deck, tape (blue tape) the hatches and companionway, and add more dock lines and chafe gear to forestall the worst. Won't be the first one to raise a false alarm, but this one looks like it means business for those of us on the East Coast.

 

[jfmid]

friends of mine in louisiana place an anchor in the middle of the canals by which their boats sit..one places an anchor in the canaal and one on landbehind the transom. that keeps them off the docks when the surge hits- one has a side tie--he puts anchor out to keep hull off dock--during katrina--they were gooooood.....no sweat--make sure you have a good anchor set out to keep you off the bulkhead!
here in sin diego we get occasional 90 mph winds in our storms from pnw in el nino years--the roller furling stands well with wraps around it--but i wouldnt leave it there in the hurrycame stuff--those are a bit meaner than our unnamed stuff--we just get them more frequently--and only in the winter. you guys get the complication of storm surge with yours--we are protected from that...
i hope you guys all come out clean and puuurrrty.....be safe and maay the sea gods watch over you!!

What a great idea..... Thanks soo much. That is really easy for me to do in my situation. The scope may not be what Maine Sail would approve of in his anchor tests but at least it would help some.

 

[zeehag]

just as long as isnt straight up an down--place anchor in mid channel and row or dink it to your boat...make sure is good and stuck. then make so the 30+ ft possible surge doesnt mess ye up. dont want the anchor line too short--will pull up and you will lose boat--or suffer damages.donot want to do that. ye just want to stay away from docks/bulkheads.
good luck. if you have any protection from direct surge you will prolly just rise and fall with it and remain away from the hard stuff--depending on direction of wind..double or triple lines--not tight--need them to move with surge also. use spring and breast lines well-dang --is a lot of work.. when i lived in Lost angels, we had to do this during el nino storms, as we had the direct hit from surge--wow--what a ride!!!! when the seas were 30-50 ft, we rocked and rolled and went all over the place...was wicked--havefun and goood luck.

yipes-does tour dock float?? those can be difficult---if surge rises above the pilings..... another goood reason to place anchor in the channel.--in this case, also place anchor on th 3land on the other side of your boat--is a good idea to check with neighbors to see how they fared last one, and what they did to survive it. nothing like local knowledge.

 

[dlewis812]

floating dock vs. moorings

keep our boats at our floating dock but also have 2 moorings. assuming best to move to the moorings?

 

[dscribner]

One of the bennies of being a trailer sailor. As long as my driveway doesn't wash out, I'm fine.

 

[Ed Schenck]

Good thing Ladylove is now in Tampa Bay. If she were still in NC I would be contracting to have her moved to an anchorage. Any time winds were predicted to be over 70 the boats had to be off the docks. If you didn't move it the marina did and at a hefty rate. I had mine moved by friends in 2008, was it Darlene? I went and got her out of the creek myself. And boy were those anchors deep and the rodes wrapped. Used my CQR35 on 100' of chain and an FX37 with 5/8" rode and lots of fire hose for chafe. I don't think that storm ever exceeded 50 knots.

 

[Peter Fridman]

As I write, Earl is passing north of us in Puerto Rico, This morning we were preparing "LUMITA 4" (#1 & #3 were hit hard by HUGO & GEORGES) for the first of 3 that follow, hope that they all miss us. Good luck to you all!!

 

[Witzend]

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US Watch/Warning Position Estimate 000WTNT42 KNHC 310250TCDAT2HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720101100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010THE INTENSITY OF EARL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIMEBEING. DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANEHUNTERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE PASTFEW HOURS. THERE WAS ALSO AN UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDOF 111 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THISADVISORY. WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT ACONCENTRIC EYEWALL OR CONVECTIVE RING MAY BE FORMING. THIS WOULDAT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPORIMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THENORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVELLOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS ANUPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION THAT IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FORSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE GFS PREDICTS AROUND 18-20 KT OFSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EARL IN 24-48 HOURS. THEOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUSONE...AND SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALSO...SOME OSCILLATIONS IN INTENSIYY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTSOR OTHER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OF EARL BUT THE MEANMOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 300/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS EARL MOVESAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY3...A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVESALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERICTROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EASTWARDCOMPONENT OF STEERING BY DAY 4...AND EARL IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATENORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE END OF THEFORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSEAGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THATFORECAST TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSETO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ASTO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 31/0300Z 19.9N 65.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 20.9N 67.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 22.6N 69.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.9N 73.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 90 KT120HR VT 05/0000Z 46.0N 62.0W 60 KT$$FORECASTER PASCH

 

[mtwolf13]

Tropical force winds can extend 200 miles out from the eye of the hurricane it self. I have to agree with John Cooper on idiots next to your boat. In also own a power boat and have a crew next to me that shouldn't even own a boat. They don't have a clue!!!

John