North Atlantic rescue off Delaware coast
- Thread starter Scott T-Bird
- Start date
I'd most like to know why they were in the Atlantic when the ICW is the only logical way to traverse that area in a Catalina 30. If there is a valid reason for them to risk everything, I'm all ears. With any common sense, they could more easily be half-way to their destination by now.
Note the absence of recreational vessels in the ocean. Marine Traffic codes pleasure traffic in purple.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 23,265
Likely drifting.
It may get used for target practice, but more likely just drift about the Atlantic till it gets hit or slips beneath the waves with all its chemicals become one with the sea.
It may get used for target practice, but more likely just drift about the Atlantic till it gets hit or slips beneath the waves with all its chemicals become one with the sea.
Fourth Edit (on a roll): I mentioned Carolina Beach above, but @TimFromLI with your 67ft air draft you wouldn't want to head that far south once inside the Masonboro inlet because you'd need to head north again to go outside (about 12nm each way). Wrightsville Beach is inside Masonboro Inlet, and it also has anchorages and commercial marina facilities. It's also close to Wilmington where there's a regional airport, which might come in handy for crew changes.
Also, I still don't understand how they went through Oregon Inlet. (Maybe my info isn't up to date. It's very hard to find up to date info online, much less published, and all the published info talks about how dicey it is, so all the more reason to avoid it).
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This is a link to the Active Captain comments about Oregon Pass by a large sailboat this April.
I still don't understand
BTW the "sonar data" he's referring to is apparently the US Army Corps of Engineers survey data that can be loaded into the Aqua Maps app. The Aqua Maps app loaded with USACE survey data, Active Captain and Bob423 tracks is the best and most current available (in general) for the US AICW and Atlantic inlets. The Sonar Maps view in Navionics is not as reliable or up to date, but helpful as supplemental info. The Navionics published charts are better than the Navionics sonar maps.
A lot of very confusing info, laced with appropriate cautions. I would have a lot of questions for the guy who wrote that. I wouldn't risk it in my boat nor recommend it for any other sailboat.
BTW the "sonar data" he's referring to is apparently the US Army Corps of Engineers survey data that can be loaded into the Aqua Maps app. The Aqua Maps app loaded with USACE survey data, Active Captain and Bob423 tracks is the best and most current available (in general) for the US AICW and Atlantic inlets. The Sonar Maps view in Navionics is not as reliable or up to date, but helpful as supplemental info. The Navionics published charts are better than the Navionics sonar maps.
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Thanks for all the edits and tips. I never realized how treacherous that section of the Atlantic is and how close to shore the GS is in that stretch. I have read your posts and just started reading other blogs of sailors who have made the trip. I will definitely research this thorougly and recruit experienced crew before trying to undertake a trip like that, like I said that's years away
I like to be prepared, and although it looks like those guys had no EPIRB, handheld or backup plan, who knows what the real story is. They supposedly had made the trip twice before. Why they were outside when they could have and should have been safely inside is beyond me. I hope there was a good reason, only they know.
I've been through Oregon Inlet on a charter fishing boat ... lots of large sport fishers at the marina on Roanoke Island (large enough that they would have similar draft to a small sailboat), so a lot of local boats going thru there on a regular basis. Local knowledge and enough air and water draft for a Catalina 30 is basically the answer. These guys, based in Cape May, are obviously no strangers to difficult passes along the Atlantic coast. I can understand their confidence in going thru the pass during favorable weather. What I don't understand is their reasoning for doing it while the clear choice is so obviously safer.
It is fairly simple, they used bad judgement. It is a well known characteristic of human cognition that humans are really poor judgers of risk. Humans tend to over estimate the risk of low probability events, like airplane crashes, while significantly underestimating the risk of higher probability incidents, like getting in a car wreck. Humans are also poor judges of their own abilities and skills, over estimating their skills and under estimating their weaknesses.
Mix these bad judgements, under estimate risk, over estimate abilities, throw in a forecast that is off a little, add a little seasickness, and some minor failure or adverse incident, like a whining dock trying to jump on deck and a cascade of failures ensues. Next thing they know, their in the middle of Gulf Stream and headed north in foul weather.
It might be more of a mathematical truth that we unconsciously apply to risk “calculations”, but we must distinguish “risk” and magnitude of outcome or consequences. Low or very low probability, i.e., low risk, events have high magnitude effects, and the converse. The rare BIG earthquakes, 9 or greater, have a high magnitude effects, whereas the more common small ones have comparatively little. Many small meteors strike the earth daily with little damage, but only once in 50-60 million years, or more, does one large enough to nearly wipe out an entire taxonomic class of species come along. There are many automobile collisions occurring daily with little consequence; but rarely, relative to the number of cars on the road and miles driven, does one occur killing many folks, etc. The ones that make “news” b/c they are rare. Same thing gambling. small pots are common; big pots are rare, etc.
I think folks understand that the risk of a airplane crash is low; but also know that the magnitude of the outcome of one is very high; everybody dies. The risk of a fender-bender auto accident may be high; but the risk of an accident killing you and your passengers is low, etc.
Exceedingly few sail boats go down at sea; the big magnitude outcome.Therefore a low risk with high magnitude outcome, etc. Nevertheless, yes. Poor judgement! It (i.e., the big outcome) CAN happen to you and if it does you will suffer; but the chances are far better than not that it won’t.
BTW. The government and the news media did a masterful job of jacking everybody up to fear dying (big outcome) from a flu virus from which the recovery rate was >99%, thereabouts (low risk of serious effect). There’s the cognitive confusion, etc.
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Mathematics actually has very little to do with judgement. Humans have poor judgement about most everything, from body image, to risk, to ability. Cognitive psychologists have been studying this for years.
For example, when asked to rate skills or knowledge, low skilled people tend to over rate their ability while high skilled people tend to accurately rate their skills, but over rate the skills of the population as a whole. Back when I was working I would ask teachers to estimate their IQ as above average, below average, or average. In NY as in most states, teachers are highly educated with graduate degrees. Some studies have shown that college graduates as a group score higher than average on IQ tests. So how did my teachers respond? Almost to a one they rated themselves as having average IQs and a few said they were below average. Very few said they were above average. This was a pretty informal study, so I can't really say why this occurred, however, I suspect it is based on their experience in which the social group they were in were mostly college educated middle class folk and within their social group they were indeed about average for the group, but above average compared to the general population.
I suspect the rescued sailors over rated their sailing skills which lead them to make a risky decision. Throw that in with a common belief that NOAA weather reports are inaccurate, and you have the beginnings of a really bad sequence of events. Add to the mix some pressure to reach a destination and the decision making becomes even more impaired.
The take home message here is that humans are really good at deluding themselves for a host of valid and not so valid reasons. As we leave the dock, we should not be over confident in our skills or ability and the condition of our vessels.
The other day I stumbled across this short TEDX video on judgement. Nicely done and a better explanation than I gave here.
It might have to do with the fact that educated people recognize that there a whole lot of really smart people out there who did not attend college, etc. Only about 30% of adults in the USA have college degrees (4 year). More than twice that many would fall within one standard deviation (+/-) of the mean of a Gaussian distribution. As with all quantitative genetic traits IQ, or intelligence, displays a Gaussian distribution in all human societies. A true measure of intelligence does not require the verbal or written answering of questions, IMO. Scientists can effectively measure the intelligence of animals, and so forth. Maybe your teachers were of “average IQ” even if scoring disproportionately high on the standard test.
Although admittedly, only about 2% of adults in the USA have a Ph.D., which “theoretically” could put them beyond 2 standard deviations on the high side of the mean IQ. So, they’d be smart if those proportions coincided.
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IQ is just a number and somewhat accurate depending upon how you're measuring it but there's another older measurement of intelligence and it's been called horse sense even though it doesn't require the absolute presence of a horse. (although if you're going to assign a number you probably ought to also measure the horse ) As to sailors, do not go to a boat ramp and try to take a measurement you will be disappointed. Sitting here reading this post reminds me that I can be technically more knowledgeable floating in the middle of the night with a good GPS knowing within three feet is exactly where I am. The GPS doesn't say take a paddle with you or 'I need more hay' for that matter.
btw I think 'where is the drain plug?' is learned knowledge rather than intuitive
btw I think 'where is the drain plug?' is learned knowledge rather than intuitive