• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

MUSETTA Cruising the Atlantic and the Weather

Oct 22, 2014
21,146
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
@dLj has posted his communications about his cruise in the Cruiser Forum. You can find his posts on this thread.

This is a grand journey.

To cruise the Atlantic means
  • looking for a window to escape the shoreline,
  • choose a bearing (often a great circle route) to your target port of call,
  • and strict attention to the developing weather patterns as they form and head out across the Atlantic in an East North Easterly direction.

Highs bring clear weather. Winds that rotate clockwise as the HIGH cell moves eastward.

Lows are unsettled air with winds rotating in a counter clockwise direction.

Forecasting the weather is done in blocks of 96 hours. Beyond the current 96 hours window the quality of the weather data deteriorates. For Dave, 96 hours means somewhere between 380 and 570 nm of travel. You are dealing with a constantly changing condition. Choosing your route and adjusting as you move across the ocean and the weather moves up behind you.

With regard to LOW cells, you want to be on the quadrant (assuming the cell is divided in to 4 pie shaped pieces) generally on the southern side with the LOW center passing north of you in the Northern Hemisphere. The most dangerous side of a low is the “right side” in the northern hemisphere. If the low is moving from south to north, this would be the east side. Winds are strongest over a much larger area and the seas are also largest on the “right side.”

Your route selection is critical. Areas to avoid are the seas between a northern HIGH cell and a LOW cell moving towards it. The combination creates strong gales and large waves compressed between the two cells.

Here is NOAA's forecast site for the Atlantic. You can click on the charts to get a picture of the weather conditions Dave will be facing.


Todays current forecast.
1690989690699.png


Jim and John
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
@jssailem and I spent several hours today on skirting the weather issues.

@dLj is now on the correct bearing of 115° motoring, but soon winds will be in his favor.

John has a more complete spreadsheet, which he will be improving.

Dave just reported, he has is sails up again. :clap:

Jim...

PS: hip hip horray for the Weather and Forecasting team.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Oh My Gosh! Sometimes I cant see the forest for the trees.:banghead::banghead:

But surprise surprise Invest 97L appears South of @dLj

Dave issue.png

Purple Arrow is Dave's GPS.
Red Arrow forecast hour.

Next post is why John and I told him to change to 115°

Jim and John
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Forecasting out 60 hrs and why John and I alerted Dave.
Dave60 hrs.png
.
My typing was bad it is still Invest 97L

Purple is course change and why.

Crazy Weather...

Jim and John.

PS: note the tropical wave off Africa changes.
PSS: Tropical Tidbits Thank you very much!
PSSS: John corrected me it is Invest 96L
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
After a long phone call between @jssailem and @dLj John suggested a new course.

Dave agreed. [me too, but I was :snooze: ]

New target is

Azores

That was Dave's original plan.

Jim and John
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
One other Weather event will happen on Aug 4 - Aug 5 .

Hold on to your GPS and other Satellite controlled stuff.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1)

Here is a G1

Screenshot 2023-08-03 at 10.40.04 AM.png


Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,146
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Armed with the developing Weather data in the Atlantic, Dave and I talked about options. Dave then chatted with his crew mate Gabriel. Together they decided to continue on their route south east and follow a Great Circle route to the Azores.
From their current position Lat+48deg32'35" Lon-44deg43'16" Sats seen:2023-08-03 14:47UTC the Azores and Ireland are about the same distance.

At 5.5 knots average they do about 130nm a day. Since they left St John's NF their average speed (mostly sailing) has been 5.9 knots.

Crossing in front of a LOW cell is usually a bad decision. In this case the LOW is tracking up from the SW and would cross directly over their route to Ireland. This would put them in gale force winds and seas. Choosing to head south now will by Tuesday get them beyond the storm center. Once in the storms SE quarter, they will have the winds helping their planned route.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Dave, @dLj , just reported that his Barometric Pressure = 1005 millibars

So his is still in that trailing LOW from his last report.

Screenshot 2023-08-09 at 12.01.03 PM.png


but soon he should see the HIGH effects in 24 hours. [BPressure and Blood Pressure too ;)]

Screenshot 2023-08-09 at 12.01.40 PM.png


Note the Red - - - are the steering currents.

Jim...

PS: we report the Weather for Dave here.
PSS: Crew got a good night sleep.:clap:
 

dLj

.
Mar 23, 2017
3,432
Belliure 41 Sailing back to the Chesapeake
@JamesG161 , can you explain a bit more about the steering currents in your post above?

dj
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,448
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
can you explain a bit more about the steering currents in your post above?
You must change to 500hPa = 500 millibar on Windy.com

Steering Currents.png


That is the Steering Currents above you now.

LOW's spin counter clockwise, HIGH's spin clockwise.

Jim...

PS: Now compare to them above.:biggrin: