• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

MID Season Hurricane 2023 Forecast Update.

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,983
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Good Morning.
While James is working on the write up of the 10 August 2023 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Update, I thought a refresher would be helpful to those interested is one of the driving forces of world weather phenomena.

Located in the Southern Pacific, there is a current of warmish water that flows 'East to West' or 'West to East' identified as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (aka “ENSO”). It seems recently, everything from weather to climate change are blamed on the natural reoccurring motions of ENSO.

El Niño is a coupled phenomenon, meaning the changes we see in the ocean surface temperature must be matched by changes in the atmospheric patterns above the tropical Pacific. The average atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific, the Walker circulation, is like a conveyor belt: rising air over the very warm far western Pacific, west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere, descending air and dry conditions over the east-central Pacific, and returning east-to-west winds near the surface—the trade winds.​
Walker Circulation neutral conditions​
Generalized Walker Circulation (December-February) during ENSO-neutral conditions. Convection associated with rising branches of the Walker Circulation is found over the Maritime continent, northern South America, and eastern Africa. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.​
​
During El Niño, the warmer east-central tropical Pacific Ocean surface leads to lower surface air pressure and more rising air, clouds, and rain over that region, weakening the overall circulation. The trade winds slow, and drier conditions and higher-than-average air pressure are observed over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The ocean-atmosphere coupling is both how El Niño perpetuates itself, as the atmospheric changes feed back into the oceanic changes, and how El Niño affects global weather and climate.​
Walker Circulation El Nino conditions​
Generalized Walker Circulation (December-February) anomaly during El Niño events, overlaid on map of average sea surface temperature anomalies. Anomalous ocean warming in the central and eastern Pacific (orange) help to shift a rising branch of the Walker Circulation to east of 180°, while sinking branches shift to over the Maritime continent and northern South America. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.​
​
Be aware of this data as you review the Hurricane update and the reported causes of these weather events.

John and Jim on Weather.
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,840
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
jssailem said:
Located in the Southern Pacific, there is a current of warmish water that flows 'East to West' or 'West to East' identified as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (aka “ENSO”). It seems recently, everything from weather to climate change are blamed on the natural reoccurring motions of ENSO.
Click to expand
Tell me about it!
El Nino is causing record breaking heat along the Gulf Coast (upper 90s and 100), strong dry westerlies (20" rain deficit ytd in LA).
Hopefully, he will do his thing by keeping hurricanes out of the Gulf and away from the East coast. Things are about to become interesting as the most active part of hurricane season ramps up in one to two weeks. Not many sailing around here; most are avoiding outdoors, for now.
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,944
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
The hurricane forecasting group now says to expect 3-5 major hurricanes (> 110 mph wind) before the end of the season. Not good.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,983
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Vigilance is a key to early preparation.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,756
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
John and I have found the relevant Science.

But we had to pause for an hour while John walks his dog.:laugh:

Jim...:biggrin:
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,756
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I know his dog is Lily, but geeeez John, even Gilligan"s Island had only a 3 hour tour.

Jim...

PS: I named her Hurricane Lily
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,983
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Jim and I have examined the available data relevant to storm development in the Atlantic. We are looking at a Mid Season Review for 2023.
Prepared by Jim and John on Weather and Forecasting

Weather Developments forecast in the Atlantic for the remainder of the 2023 Hurricane Seasons

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Any discussion about Hurricanes and weather events starts with the sources of energy that drive such events. Our energy source for weather events is the Sun and to a lesser extent the Cosmic Ray energy that strikes earth from the vast reaches of space. The proton energy strikes the molecules of air that surround our planet and change the chemicals that make up the air upon which we depend. These changes can be see in the formation of clouds. Scientists state they do not know the effects of this process and are currently studying this area of science to better understand what are the factors that affect our weather and over time our climate.

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home.cern

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What we can observe now is the HEAT Content of the oceans. We know that storms i.e. Hurricanes, get their energy from the HEAT of the ocean. A cold ocean makes it difficult to impossible for a tropical storm to build energy. At present looking at the Atlantic, from the equator north, the ocean is below normal in HEAT Content. The storms that we see being generated from monsoon weather patterns from Africa lack energy.

As the storms (low pressure cells) are pushed east along surface in the tropical convergence zone they come under the influence of westerly high level winds. Without the energy to build vertically the cells tops are sheared. The storms slow and are dragged in a northernly directions as they rotate counter clockwise. We observe this northerly movement and as they move into colder ocean the lack of energy has them dying in the central Atlantic. Often referred to as Fish storms.

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Shara Dust
Another Weather event, that is being studied, is the proliferation of Shara dust clouds filling the air from 5000 to 15000 feet above the ocean. These clouds of dust travel across the Atlantic and are being observed in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Dust particles help to precipitate moisture out of the air drying the air and again reduce the energy available to form large cyclonic storms.

The image is a picture from windy.com on 11 Aug 2023.

West African Monsoons.
The Science starting with the Energy source.
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These Monsoons cycle North and South during a Year.
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How Monsoons affect the Hurricane Season is the Trade Winds.
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Which generates the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) report. This data can be found on the NOAA website.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Home Page - Satellite Services Division - Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

www.ssd.noaa.gov
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Below is the current Atlantic Heat Content. It is changing. It is cooling from the rain.

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What do we expect from the Science?
Many Atlantic Fish Storms.

Where are we extra vigilant?
Formations in and near the Caribbean

Prepared by: Jim and John
on Weather and Forecasting
Aug 2023
 
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