Calculate the ELASTICITY / deflection of the rig / wire and mast top (& lowers) between 'normal' and max. (including SF) loads.
Righting moment = 9,200 / 14,0000 ft-lbs, the first figure being in the range of normal heeling where there are a significant number of cycles and the latter the maximum experienced in the rare (hopefully) event of the boat being blown flat in the water.
Dividing by the distance of the chainplates off centerline(upper shroud and average of the lowers) gives overall shroud loading of 2,125 / 3,233 with corresponding mast compression.
The Rhodes data sheet based on tests of rigging indicates 65% of overall load is born by the lowers so 1,381 / 2,101 pounds.
There are two lowers so 690 / 1,050 pounds. Add 20% for prestress so 828 / 1260 pounds.
The Rhodes data sheet indicates 45% of overall load (I know it adds up to more than 100% but there is evidently a little conservativism built in) is born by the uppers so 956 / 1455 pounds. Add 20% for prestress so 1147 / 1746.
The Loos Company website give the following formula for the stretch of 1 x 19 304 S.S. wire:
% of Length = (Load x .0000078) / Diameter squared
So:
My 1/4" upper shrouds are 474 inches long so the formula tells me they will stretch .1193% or .565 inches when the rail is in the water and I'm easing sheets or rounding up in a panic and .2179% - 1.033 inches if the boat is blown flat in the water.
My 3/16" lower shrouds average 257 inches long so they will stretch .1837% - .472 inches and .2796% - .7184 inches respectively.
Looking at the worst case (knockdown) by laying out stretched rigging lengths in CAD, I can calculate that the masthead will have moved just a bit under 9" at the point of maximum righting moment while the boat is being knocked down.
If I were to get DOS running on an old computer, I could pull out the indeterminent structual analysis program I wrote and used for the USCG certification of the "Surprise" ex. "Rose". I had the whole rig modeled and could create print outs of it flexed under various loads. It was very cool.
Anyway, I can determine that the angle between the shroud and the mast decreases by .156 degrees for the uppers and .283 degrees for the lowers at maximum rig deflection. Rigging toggles make it a simple connection so bending force on the tangs will be the tangent of the wire load, so 4.75 pounds for the upper tangs and 12.45 pounds total for the two lowers. The upper tang is 5 inches from the bend to the toggle pin so 23.77 inch-pounds. SM is .022 so bending stress is 1080 pounds. Tension stress is 4063 so total stress is 5143 psi at the bend portion. I think we are good.
Half of the lower shroud bending force, 6.23 pounds is on a 4.8" lever so 29.90 inch-pounds and the other shroud is on a shorter lever of 2.7 inches so 16.82 for a total of 46.72 inch-pounds. SM is .0269 so bending stress is 1734 psi added to 4915 straight tension for a
total of 4915 psi. I think these simple chainplates would stand up if I planned to knock the boat flat in the water several times a day for the rest of my sailing career.
As you point out, fatigue can take place at fairly low stress levels given enough cycles and stress risers but the loads above are conditions that the boat will seldom, if ever, encounter and there isn't much flexing. When you look at how well the old tangs held up with their extreme flexing, not an uncommon design for what I see looking around the yards, I'm not going to worry much about mine even if they are not what I would have designed with a clean slate and unlimited budget.