No way to predict
A lightning arrestor may help, but to what degree is up for debate. Lightning is the discharge of electricity from ground to clouds caused by a large difference in electrical potential( the + and - thing). What makes it difficult if not impossible to predict is that these electrical potentials ( +'s and -'s) keep moving. We are taught that the highest objects get hit thats why you are not supposed to stand in an open field or get under a tree. (That always puzzled me because if you are outdoors, usually those are the ONLY two choices). Anyway, that generalization is not a good one. Sometimes lightning will travel 20 miles through the air, which incidentally is a great electrical insulator, and pass over many high steel structures and hit a spot in an open field on the grass. I work offshore and the Platforms are all steel structures, the legs go down hundreds , sometimes thousands of feet into the salt water Gulf of Mexico. The legs are then anchored down in various ways, but usually at least 200 more feet into the bottom of the Gulf. The Oil and gas wells are also all steel and they go down into the ground under the Gulf several thousand more feet. You cant get a better ground that that. And yet most of the time, the lightning will travel all of these miles through the air and hit the open water a 100 yards or less from a platform that stands an average of 100 feet above the water. As for sailboats, some get hit with little to no damage and others get completely fried. It does however seem that Higgs's friend is correct in the statement "that out on the water an ungrounded boat is less likely to get hit, but more likely to suffer damage". Tony B