Laws of Probability

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John T1594

John T1594

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Jun 4, 2004
834
Hunter 340 Forked River, NJ
Why is it that in boating the laws that govern the normal randomness of the universe and probability seem to be suspended? I mean that negative things that you think would have a 50/50 or less chance of happening seem to occur at a much higher rate on or near a boat. It defies all the laws chance and probability and maybe even the laws of physics and thermodynamics. Have you noticed that whenever there is a sail, line, halyard, sheet, furler line, anchor rode, hose, shore power cord, lobster pot, etc. anywhere remotely near a cleat, chock, stantion, rudder, propeller, anchor, keel, piling, Dorade, etc. there is a high probability that there is going to be a snag, tangle or catch of some sort . If I am forward, things get caught aft. If I am aft there is a snag up forward. Up or down, topside or below, on the dock or on the boat, things are going to catch on something and you will have to stop what you are doing and go to the other end of the boat. These things also happen when I am in the middle of something, like docking, setting or retrieving the anchor, navigating a tricky inlet or anchorage or just anytime you least need it to happen. I must admit that these things also occur around my house and yard but nothing like the rate at which they happen on the boat.
 
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RichH

RichH

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Feb 14, 2005
4,773
Tayana 37 cutter; I20/M20 SCOWS Worton Creek, MD
Murphy started out as a sailor.
 
Witzend

Witzend

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Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
I always thought someone needed to write a song called "Catch and Tear". After all the Beatles wrote "Twist and Shout".
 
Stu Jackson

Stu Jackson

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Feb 26, 2004
23,356
Catalina 34 224 Maple Bay, BC, Canada
Analyze This

One way to start dealing with this issue is to carefully examine your habits, trends, occurances and "repeatabilities" -- if they keep happening to you, it is possible, not always, but possible, that YOU can actually DO something about it.

Like: clearing all lines on a regular basis, making sure that YOU have done everything humanly possible to minimize (not completely avoid, but minimize) those things from happening.

I found that by doing certain things, and NOT doing other things, I have minimized those bad things from happening repeatedly. Doesn't mean somethin' else won't happen, just sayin'...

Good habits always help.

Crab pots, on the other hand? --- NOTHIN' you can do about 'em! :):):)

Good luck.
 
N

navigator97

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May 24, 2004
470
Hunter 33.5 Portsmouth, RI
In boating it's all controlled by O'Brien's Law, which has one corollary - "Murphy was an optomist!".
 
lehighsail

lehighsail

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Feb 21, 2008
419
Hunter 33 Metedeconk River
Whose law is this? When you are 6 miles off shore and you don't see a another boat all day, and all of a sudden one appears on the horizon, that you will pass within 10 feet of each other. Its like the masts are magnetized or something!!
 
Witzend

Witzend

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Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
We once did a point point race on the Chessy "Harbor Cup". It starts at Baltimore Light just above the Bay Bridge and many hours later finishes at the Inner Harbor. We were yelling STARBOARD as we crossed the line with another boat in our class. We finished within seconds of each other. What are the chances?
 
Gunni

Gunni

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Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
Witzend said:
We once did a point point race on the Chessy "Harbor Cup". It starts at Baltimore Light just above the Bay Bridge and many hours later finishes at the Inner Harbor. We were yelling STARBOARD as we crossed the line with another boat in our class. We finished within seconds of each other. What are the chances?
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See Witzend, this is exactly what Stu is talking about up thread, you did this to yourself. Rule 18.2 Giving Mark Room. There is no stinkin' 'Starboard' within three lengths of the mark. :redface:
 
Witzend

Witzend

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Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
Gunni said:
See Witzend, this is exactly what Stu is talking about up thread,
Thus the reason I told the story.

you did this to yourself. Rule 18.2 Giving Mark Room. There is no stinkin' 'Starboard' within three lengths of the mark. :redface:
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Our competitor, on port had to tack just before reaching the finish line and did so without protest. The pin end or the committee end was not in contention, we were crossing in the middle of the line.

This had nothing to do with giving room at a mark.


Does 18.2 apply to this situation?

I think not.
It only would have if we were pinching him off at the end of the line.
 
robertsapp

robertsapp

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May 28, 2009
764
Hunter 376 Pensacola, FL
Now see, this is why we don't race. Any activity that requires the memorization of detailed subparagraph administrivia has no place on our boat. Turn up the tunes and pass the bottle opener please!
 
Witzend

Witzend

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Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
robertsapp said:
Now see, this is why we don't race. Any activity that requires the memorization of detailed subparagraph administrivia has no place on our boat. Turn up the tunes and pass the bottle opener please!
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Yea, just wanted to share a story, not get into race rules.
 
B

Benny17441

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May 24, 2004
7,215
CC 30 South Florida
It may just seem that way but it is not. Hardly no chance of snagging a line in my car. Boats that meet over the horizon are probably traveling popular routes between desirable destinations. With GPS navigation nowdays it is surprising they don't pass any closer.
 
Gunni

Gunni

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Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
Witzend said:
Our competitor, on port had to tack just before reaching the finish line and did so without protest. The pin end or the committee end was not in contention, we were crossing in the middle of the line.

This had nothing to do with giving room at a mark.


Does 18.2 apply to this situation?

I think not.
It only would have if we were pinching him off at the end of the line.
Click to expand
So why were you fusing about starboard? You are now on the same starboard tack. It is a windward-leeward right of way concern. And you can't sail above your course if you have the ROW. (rule 17)

Either way it just adds up to a potential good sail spoiled (when you aren't getting paid to do it with another guy's boat).
 
Ross

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
Apply enough variables and something is bound the affect one of them .
 
Witzend

Witzend

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Dec 25, 2008
1,580
catalina 310 Elk River
Gunni said:
So why were you fusing about starboard? You are now on the same starboard tack. It is a windward-leeward right of way concern. And you can't sail above your course if you have the ROW. (rule 17)

Either way it just adds up to a potential good sail spoiled (when you aren't getting paid to do it with another guy's boat).
Click to expand
Wow I sure don't understand your tone here??
My competitor was on port I was on starboard, I indicated Starboard to get his attention so there would not be a problem. We had just sailed 6 hours and were separated by a few feet. That was the point of the story. Nothing spoiled here.
 
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