La Niña

Oct 2, 2008
3,627
Pearson/ 530 Strafford, NH
Hi all,

I know I shouldn’t complain but we made our trip south from Virginia to Ft. Pierce, Fl. and have a bit of an issue. The water level has been high making the fixed bridges impassible for us and the marinas are full of boats being dropped until after the holidays. So for the short term, we’ve been anchored riding out the weather. But most of the wind has been from the north or east which doesn’t drain the lagoon. Will this La Niña effect last much longer?
 
Jan 1, 2006
6,166
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
As you know this Sunday has started out fairly nasty. Sharing the pain may not help much, I guess. How much do you need water levels to go down to get under the bridges? There is a nice underutilized mooring field just South of the Jensen Beach bridge. But if you can't get under the bridge it doesn't help you. After several days of 15+ NE wind I would think the trip outside from Ft. Pierce to the St. Lucie inlet wouldn't be much fun. There are marinas in Stuart that seem to have availability. But you may need to get under the Roosevelt Bridge which has vertical clearance of 60'. I don't know what effect the rain has on that.
I'd have to leave it to the weather gurus about the rain. It seems from the radar that we are in a fairly narrow band of showers but they seem to be streaming ashore pretty steadily.
 
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dLj

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Mar 23, 2017
1,886
Belliure 41 Now on the Chesapeake
Just looking at Windy, seems you might have a small window Monday, but I don't think that's long enough to do much for you. After that looks like you might have a window Thursday through Saturday. Where's your final destination?

dj
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,785
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
When your winds shift to out of the North West on Monday, you may have a break. Right now the Winds are from the East , thus pushing the waves and Tides ashore.
Windy as forecasted

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,409
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
I will share a La Niña and El Niño discussion later today on the Weather Forum.

These to summer "Climate" patterns affect our winter weather experiences.
 
Oct 2, 2008
3,627
Pearson/ 530 Strafford, NH
With all the rain today there’s flood warnings for the St. Lucie area including here. Really need strong west winds to blow the water out.
 
Jan 1, 2006
6,166
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
Yeah this PM wasn't a lot better than this AM. A lotta rain. But at least from what I can tell from my yard has abated. Usually with the passing of the front you'll get a NW or W wind so.... you have that going for you.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
16,409
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Tom you have weather.
You may have a window Tuesday the 23rd. when the winds shift and come out of the North for about 24 hours.
Next window for winds out of the north comes after Thanksgiving on Black Friday. The High pressure cell providing all your on shore winds will move off shore and you will have a low providing off shore winds for several days.

Low tide during daylight hours occurs on the 27th at Ft Pierce. 0.3 at 8:13AM.
Tide Port St Lucie.jpg
Hope the info is helpful in your Holiday planning.

Jim and I provided a discussion site in the Weather and Forecasting forum for info on the ENSO climate and it's effects on our weather.
 
Jan 1, 2006
6,166
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
Weather gurus: What is the connection between our rainy day here and Nino/Nina? And looking at John's post referencing ENSO - I don't know what that is?
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,409
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
referencing ENSO - I don't know what that is?
ENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climatic phenomena on Earth.
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,409
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
The onshore flow of moist air you are experiencing is the result of the High Pressure Cell out in the North Atlantic.
This will change by Tuesday.
JensenBeach.jpg

You can say the general trend is a La Niña trend but weather is weather based on the Jet Stream and the pressure cells that pass across the country.

1637539773679.png


The La Niña trend is for a drier winter season in Florida. At present your weather is not cooperating. Let the High move on towards Ireland. Then the Low can move through and you'll move the wet weather north.
 
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Oct 2, 2008
3,627
Pearson/ 530 Strafford, NH
The other observation that I had was the current shift yesterday. There was noticeably more time of flooding than ebbing during the daytime. We’re anchored near the inlet so it was noticeable. Getting resupplied may take a few days. Thanks John, I try to keep an eye on the jet stream for the effects on local weather.

Just saw a little blurb on local TV about a water release from Okeechobee, that will be annoying if it keeps the coastal waters higher.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
16,409
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Water releases of the great freshwater lake, the Okeechobee, that makes up a big part of the fresh resource in Florida is a contentious issue. The Army Corps of Engineers manages the system of dams. They announced a final decision on their "basic plan". (Army Corps of Engineers makes decision on basic plan of Lake O outflow ... and not all agree | Boca Beacon)
  • releases to the east into the St Lucie Estuary will decrease overall by about 35 to 40%
I think this is through out the year. Not much help for you to get under a bridge in the next 10 days...

Perhaps you need some water bags hanging from the mast head....
 
Jan 7, 2011
3,043
Oday 322 East Chicago, IN
The onshore flow of moist air you are experiencing is the result of the High Pressure Cell out in the North Atlantic.
This will change by Tuesday.
View attachment 200357

You can say the general trend is a La Niña trend but weather is weather based on the Jet Stream and the pressure cells that pass across the country.

View attachment 200358

The La Niña trend is for a drier winter season in Florida. At present your weather is not cooperating. Let the High move on towards Ireland. Then the Low can move through and you'll move the wet weather north.
Our weather forecasters can’t get it right more than 50% of the time, for more than a few days in the future…

I don’t think I am going to put too much stock in the El Niño / La Niña forecast…

The map says “wetter” in my area (south end of Lake Michigan)…but I don’t know if that means more snow or rain…

Greg
 
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Jan 1, 2006
6,166
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
I'm still digesting. One map shows drier weather here in South Florida and we have a poster complaining of continuing wet weather here. I'm not sure how to evaluate that.
 
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