...It's the most wonderful time of the year

[jssailem]

It is a wonderful time of the year for the Weather honchos...

NOAA - the National Hurricane Center is at rest while we await the season. It is a time for thinking about what drives the weather and to prognosticate about what might happen this year.

Tropical Weather Outlook Issuance will resume on June 1st or as necessary.​ Tropical Weather Discussion 2154 UTC Mon Apr 6 2020​

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

[TH]

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico​

[/TH]​

Tropical Weather Outlook Issuance will resume on May 15th or as necessary.​ Tropical Weather Discussion 2015 UTC Mon Apr 6 2020​

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time. The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

[TH]

Eastern North Pacific (East of 140°W)​

[/TH]​

Tropical Weather Outlook Issuance will resume on June 1st or as necessary.​

There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time. The Central North Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

[TH]

Central North Pacific (140°W to 180°)​

[/TH]​

As you can see for NOAA there is another Month and a bit until we traditionally see "tropical cyclones" develop in the Eastern Pacific. That is considered the waters of the Western beaches of Mexico and Central America.

What Jim and I have been watching is the changing of the Jet Stream. Once strongly whipping linke a singular wave around the Arctic Circle stirring up winter and urging it down over Canada and the USA, now is starting to divide and usher in a spring/summer Tropical Jet Stream.

Viewed here at 10Km above the Northern Pacific you can see the white area of wind 100knts plus dividing into 2 bands over the pacific and heading towards the western edge of North America.

Here you can see at the surface the Low and High Pressure cells that are being dragged across the surface.

It is this intersection that Jim and I watch and attempt to interpret as we wonder what Mother Nature has brewing for us sailors.

 

[Michael Davis]

The west coast will have perfect sailing weather this summer. The North Pacific High will be strong and stable, the winds will be 10 to 15 out of the N.W. and we will be told to stay home. Is there no justice?

 

[jssailem]

I know Michael. Seems so unfair. Hopefully the curve will flatten and we can again cruise the Salish Sea.

 

[Michael Davis]

Hopefully the curve will flatten

It's beginning to look very positive here in B.C. I sure hope we can keep it up!

 

[JamesG161]

Once strongly whipping linke a singular wave around the Arctic Circle stirring up winter and urging it down over Canada and the USA, now is starting to divide and usher in a spring/summer Tropical Jet Stream.

Here is the 5 day forecast for both parts of the Jet Stream. [4/6/2020]
Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts for North America

Note the southern or Tropical Jet Stream dominate the Southern part of USA and then literally push the Polar JS back north in the 5 day out.

Spring has sprung in the South.

The more we see the Jet Stream "push" each other, the more severe the spring weather will be on the "Surface Maps"

We are starting late this spring, for severe weather.
Jim...

 

[Will Gilmore]

Here is an interesting descriptive overview of the Jetstream Analysis maps. The link was provided at the bottom of the page JamesG linked to.
The relationship between converging and diverging jetstream air and high and low pressure resulting in fair or foul weather is nicely summarized.
CRWS Background Information: Jet Stream Maps
"As air races through the sinuous jet-stream pattern, there are some parts of the pattern where air tends to converge, thereby increasing the total weight of air above the earth's surface in those areas, which implies higher pressure at the earth's surface below. Moreover, convergence of air within the jet stream tends to force air beneath the jet stream downward. As air descends in the atmosphere, the pressure on it increases and compresses it, thereby warmingthe sinking air, which evaporates any existing clouds or prevents clouds from forming in the first place. Such areas generally experience clear weather.

However, air in other parts of the jet stream pattern tends to diverge, which reduces the total weight of air above the surface which implies lower surface pressure beneath those parts of the jet stream. Moreover, divergence of air within the jet stream tends to induce air below to ascend to replace the diverging air. Rising air encounters lower atmospheric pressure, so the rising air expands and coolsby virtue of the expansion. If the rising air cools enough, clouds form in it and may eventually produce precipitation. Regions of the atmosphere where air within the jet stream aloft diverges, causing surface pressure to fall and forcing air within the troposphere below to rise and cool, leading to large-scale cloud formation and possibly precipitation, are associated with mid-latitude wave cyclones and their accompanying warm and cold fronts."

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

[WayneH]

Yep, it's Spring here in central Texas. But my boat is in Pensacola and I'm not sure I can get out of Louisiana once I get into Louisiana. I wonder how I can prove to the Florida Highway Patrol and the Texas Department of Public Safety that I did NOT stop in Louisiana?

 

[DRhoads]

Over the top and save gas receipts.

 

[jssailem]

Those multi colored beads hanging from your neck and the rear view window and the bumper sticker “

would indicate a lack of veracity in your story.

 

[JamesG161]

Take Interstate 12 in Baton Rouge and bypass New Orleans.
I-10 is still flowing East bound to Pensacola.
Jim...

PS: Wave at my boat in Exit 16 I-10 in Mississippi. You can see my mast from I-10 daytime.

 

[BigEasy]

Shouldn't be a problem getting into Florida if you have Texas license plates. They're only stopping vehicles with LA plates on I-10 and vehicles from NY & NJ on I-95.