• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 91L- update --> TS Earl

JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,445
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The major tracking models have aligned already.

"Fish Storm" again. :clap:

storm_91.gif

____________________________
A few people have inquired about this Atlantic Season.

Think about this pictogram, nick named the "Atlantic Campfire"

AtlanticCampfire_sm.png


@jssailem and I have our views of this season, but of course we are not Professional Meteorologists.

Our view can be found on this link

ITCZ or The Doldrums

Post #3 is the reason for the Heavy Rains in parts of the USA.

One last thing and I will post this update soon.

NOAA has Downgraded their first forecast for this Season.

Jim...
 
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shemandr

shemandr

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Jan 1, 2006
7,086
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I'm not only not a professional forecaster, I barely understand all those charts. But I like the look of things from my vantage point in South Florida. I'm figuring it takes 10 days for a typical invest to get from the coast of Africa to the East cost of Florida. So off the coast of Africa it is already September 12th. The door is closing on the threat of an Atlantic storm hitting South Florida.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,445
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
shemandr said:
I'm figuring it takes 10 days for a typical invest to get from the coast of Africa to the East cost of Florida.
Click to expand
At this time, the Westerlies off Africa, control the speed of Tropical waves.

≈12 mph

I was showing the Admiral this morning, the first graphic above.
She pointed to the model labeled

XTRP

I told her, that is a trajectory model or this..
If it continued in a straight line, where is the target.

You can find calculators on line to compute that Direct Hit timing.

Your 10 days estimate is a bit off.
Jim...

PS: Each plot point is elapsed 24 hours.
 
Davidasailor26

Davidasailor26

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May 17, 2004
5,091
Beneteau Oceanis 37 Havre de Grace
JamesG161 said:
i needed more coffee....
I just corrected that.
Thanks David.

Jim...
Click to expand
I must need more coffee too - technically 94L is shown by one ensemble member in the lower right of the 91L picture. And indeed it does look like a fish storm there for now. So I guess we were both right. :beer:
 
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B

Benny17441

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May 24, 2004
7,131
CC 30 South Florida
The weather has been a little screwy in the past few years, so the historical behavior of these storms offer no guarantees going forward. I count the 10 days from the time a threat moving in our general direction is identified at a 50% or better of development. Thankfully our models are much improved and reliable. After looking at the forecasted track of these three guys out there I'm not going to move from my chair.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,445
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Crusty Ol Salt said:
My theory is, never speak about things you do not want to appear.
Click to expand
My Science does not use a Theory.

3 La Niñas in a row is rare, thus appears weird. [lots of rain too]

See graph above for similar times.
Jim...
 
rgranger

rgranger

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Jan 19, 2010
12,389
Hobie 16 & Rhodes 22 Skeeter Charleston
JamesG161 said:
My Science does not use a Theory.

3 La Niñas in a row is rare, thus appears weird. [lots of rain too]

See graph above for similar times.
Jim...
Click to expand
Wait? I understand what you meat to say but…
That is sort of like saying “my key-lime pie doesn’t use pie.:wink:
 
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