Indian Summer in the Pacific NW

[jssailem]

Maybe. It is looking like the next 18 or so days will be a mild sunny time. Who knows what lies beyond? The mild temps and sunny skies should be helpful in providing one last cruise experience or prep time for your boat before winter sets in.

Here is my favorite PacificNW weather man's opinion.

The current long-range outlook is dry.​

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Other than a possible shower or two in the far NW corner of the PNW (Vancouver Is., northern WA Cascades) early this week and again this coming weekend, we do not see ANY notable precipitation through at least Oct 20. Sure, models do trend back-n-forth, but for now, the charts keep stable High pressure patterns blocking any normal fall Pacific storms from our region.​

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Easy forecast: Mild temps, with very little risk of frost, over the next 2-3 weeks. Stop by again on Friday for an update. Maybe rain will return to our forecasts.​

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“No drunken sailor ever spent money as fast as a sober congressperson.” ​

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-Rufus​

 

[Terry Cox]

Nice, but Thanksgiving break will be my soonest opportunity to head out for some water time. Hopefully, the Admiral will join me in a celebration on the water November 28-December 1. Hadley...?

 

[mermike]

Just got back from a nice 8 day cruise. The last day, last Wednesday, was WET. My foulies soaked through - that's never happened before. Finally picked up a nice breeze Wed. evening coming south through Admiralty Inlet, that held to Colvos Rocks.

 

[jssailem]

I have to admit, when I first read the forecast on Monday I got a little excited. I should know to curb my enthusiasm regarding dry days in October by now.

Today, after cleaning the gutters, I’m ready for whatever Mother Nature wants to do.

Here is the promised Friday update.


Friday October 4

Our tag line today relates to how Nature responded to our last forecast of "dry through at least Oct 20” - now rain & showers are likely, at times. It’s as though Nature says, “Watch this!” Or, it could be that lots of Patrons washed their cars, which always brings on rain!? It’s the first Friday of October 2024, so let’s get to why you are here with a morn’n beverage in hand.

Rain today, with showers lingering into the evening. Cooler. The weekend does look dry & mild. As for next week, we see another chance for a few showers, esp over the Vancouver Island & the Puget Sound later on Mon the 7th on into nightfall. A repeat of this is likely for Tue night into early Wed, which should include NW OR. After that, it looks dry to wrap up the week of Oct 7-11, EXCEPT for a chance for showers over mainly western OR overnight Thu Oct 10.

There may be a bit of FOG Sat morning, the 13th, in the lowlands, but the weekend is charting as dry & mild. A NE breeze should arrive Sunday on into Mon the 14th, keeping fog away. Dry through that week until Fri Oct 18, when another Pacific storm is on the charts for Fri night.

So, obviously, Oct will not be nearly as dry as we had forecast earlier this week. Still, the models do not present super-wet storms nor multiple wet days in a row. Will that hold? Check back here on Monday.

From 14 years ago: “It’s getting so that take-home pay can hardly survive the trip."

-Rufus

 

[nightowle]

We will be heading from Lake Union to Des Moines this Saturday and returning on Monday. Nice weather forecast but unfortunately, light winds are in the cards for both days. Bummer. We'll be meeting up with several other boats there, so fun will be had nonetheless.

 

[gnetwerker]

It was a pretty nice day in Nanaimo today -- broken clouds, some sun, dry during the day. Wind yesterday in the Strait, but not expecting much for the balance of the week.

 

[jssailem]

Thank you @gnetwerker for the in person update.
I am aways south at the moment. We had a beautiful day in Oregon. Not much wind. Plenty of sunshine. A great morning to be on a soccer pitch cheering my grandson’s team in an evenly matched game on to victory.

Enjoy the weather while it is here.

 

[jssailem]

It is Monday, and I just read Rufus's update. There are still some nice days out there over the next 2-3 weeks.

I am going to see if the Foilage Colors in Maine and New Hampshire are as vibrant as claimed, over the next 2 weeks.
Look out Bar Harbor and Littleton.
John

Monday October 7​

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<< Please take note: No forecast updates this Fri Oct 12 & next Mon Oct 14. Your host will be in FL & M-i-s-s-i-s-s-i-p-p-i >>​

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Showers over Vancouver Island this afternoon, spreading over NW WA overnight heading into Tue. Warm today across the PNW. Limited chance for any precip south of, say, Chehalis, until Wed, when cool air aloft expands the range of showers for a day or two. Even then, not much precip is expected. The coming weekend is trending dry & quite pleasant for all. ​

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Next week is on tap to be fall-like, with periods of cloudiness and rain. Monday looks wet & a bit blustery; eastern basins included, as will be northern ID. Key wet periods will be Mon, early Tue, Wed (esp western WA --> lots of rain!). OR may miss out on notable rainfall after Monday, as the ‘jet stream’ will be pointed at NW WA & southern BC.​

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The weekend of Oct 19,20 is charting as dry for most of the PNW, excluding Vancouver Island, southern BC and far NW WA - wet each day. Rain may spread farther south over much of western WA on Sunday the 20th. Increasing cloudiness for NW OR, but right now, steady rain is not suggested.​

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It does look dry across the PNW Mon, Tue, and maybe Wed, Oct 21-23. Lots of time to verify this. Good pattern to harvest hazelnuts.​

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Again, please pardon our absence for a week. We are taking a ‘recation’ -- retirement vacation.​

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“Perhaps the supreme product of civilization is people who can endure it."​

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-Rufus​

 

[Terry Cox]

A barred owl woke me from my slumber at oh dark thirty this morning; a regular show. He seems to like our very large fir out back. A gorgeous day yesterday and another expected today. Current temperature outside, 61 degrees with a very light wind. Druthers on the boat somewhere, say Rock Inlet behind the old Namu cannery, or Minstrel Island.

 

[jssailem]

To much of a good thing puts Mother Nature out of balance.

Our PacificNW weather is about to change. Last few days to clean the gutters are here. If you weather tarp your boat now would be the time to break it out and secure it.

“The rains are a coming!”

Here is the long range forecast from my buddy Rufus.

Friday October 18

Today & this weekend will be a split-decision kind of pattern, with the northern 1/2 of western WA, along with southern BC, getting hammered with multiple inches of rain & plenty of wind gusts. SW WA & OR, on down into northern CA, will avoid the rain until later on Sunday. Mild temps. Late Sunday, the rain band will shift south, providing a quick-shot of rain to western OR & northern CA.

Regionally, showers will linger a bit on Mon the 21st, leading into a pleasant, dry fall pattern that could last through Fri Oct 25. Enjoy it while you can. Temps will be mild, although a light frost could appear across portions of the eastern basins early in the week. A wet warm front will move into the PNW overnight Thu into Fri, setting up the beginning of an extended rainy pattern. A Classic Fall rainy period begins.

WET, blustery and notably cooler weekend to begin the last weekend of October. Snow in the higher elevations, both north & south Cascades. Sunday night, the 27th will usher in another very wet system from the NW. Only the beginning, Patrons.

The week of Halloween is looking constantly WET and blustery. Inches of precip is on tap, with steady rainfall every day through the week AND through the weekend of Nov 2,3! Get a few good books. Indoor time.

The “daily rain” pattern is currently charting to begin around Fri Oct 25 and last at least through the first week of November.
Total cumulative precipitation, per most recent model compilations, is forecast to be in the 5” to 10” range from today through Nov 3. Higher end of that range will be in the coast & Cascade ranges. Localized flooding will be probable, so keep aware & heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.

Ponder Point: possible low elevation SNOW as a ‘winter-cold’ air mass may settle in over the PNW around Nov 5 - ELECTION DAY.

 

[jssailem]

OK Sailors. We all know if you desire wind in your sails, the time to go sailing is in the fall months. It looks like Rufus has ordered just that. His long-range look at the weather patterns for the end of October and the beginning of November foretells breeze days in our future. It's time to secure the boat in the slip for a few rocky days. Check your reefing rigging if you plan to venture out.

One of my favorite weather areas of exploration is the ENSO currents. They give us insight into the summer Atlantic hurricane possibilities and foretell the winter weather possibilities for the PacificNW. This past year, the ENSO currents have been a bit unsettled. First, there was a strong movement from El Niño to La Niña conditions. This caused the NHC to forecast a frightening season. Then, the ENSO currents moderated. The results are that it is going in the books as a neutral year. That is an indicator our winter weather will be a series of confusing events. Buckle up. It may get bumpy.

Monday October 28

Plenty of rain, wind, and yes, sun breaks ahead as the 10th month of the year ends and the 11th begins. Refresh your Mug and get back here.​

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Showers today, decreasing by Tue, with a few turning into thunderstorms given the cold air aloft. Mountain snow. The next storm front is modeled for Wed. This one will be start out rather mild when the warm front pushes onshore; turning quite wet and blustery as the cold front moves past..​

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A secondary Low is now modeled to form right afterward, setting up a damp HALLOWEEN. —> Note: there are indications that this smaller, tightly-packed Low will move onshore around the central OR coast later on Thu, with a rather powerful WIND FIELD along the south coast of OR, maybe a bit inland, too. Trick or Treaters in OR are more likely to deal with showers than those in the Puget Sound area. (We may have jinxed Halloween in our last forecast - saying it was going to be dry. Oops.)​

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It looks fairly dry Fri the 8th before a weak system moves in sometime Saturday, for additional rain/showers. Earlier solutions held this system off until Sunday, but we suggest one prepares for wet conditions Sat.​

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Next week trends dry early, with some rain over Vancouver Island and the far NW WA area on ELECTION DAY. Dry Wed Nov 6, but then BE READY. What we will term as the first major fall storm pattern of the season is charting to arrive Thu Nov 7. Heavy rain, WINDY Thursday through Saturday the 9th. Localized flooding issues probable, esp given plugged storm drains. A short break in the powerful storm(s) will happen Sunday Nov 10, as the rain field shifts into California. More rain on tap for Mon Nov 11. Sip.​

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Here’s when we may get our first notable region-wide WIND STORM of the fall. Models are not conclusive this far out, but have indicated a large, deep Low pressure center developing in eastern Pacific, moving onshore along the southern BC coast. The wind field from this storm could impact the PNW, along with additional heavy rainfall. Please tuck this into your ‘what if’ pocket - lots can change by then. Just know that strong fall storms are on tap to develop over the Gulf of Alaska, some possibly moving close enough to the PNW to get our attention. Yep, it’s that time of year.​

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“Drive-up banks were established so that automobiles could see their real owners occasionally."​

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-Rufus​

 

[Terry Cox]

“Drive-up banks were established so that automobiles could see their real owners occasionally."

I almost had a tear well up