• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurrisheet?

WayneH

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Jan 22, 2008
866
Tartan 37 Pensacola Shipyard, FL
I ran across an interesting website while doing "research".
flhurricane.com with a tag line of "Hurricanes without the hype"
One of their forums had "Hurrisheet - Intensity and Surge Estimations from Pressure
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=74471&an=0&page=3
The Spreadsheet is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...TO8xsW9PS9Zk706BWO4_So/edit?hl=en&hl=en#gid=0

Jim, you are our resident storm guru. What do you think about this spreadsheet? The author states several times that this is not a proven or peer reviewed work but it gives good estimations.
 
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Likes: JamesG161
May 24, 2004
6,795
CC 30 South Florida
Our best and brightest meteorologist currently wrestle with the issue of storms intensity and are unable to provide reliable forecasts and now we get a spreadsheet that will do it for us? Really? I think of good estimates as something that might provide "good enough" results but I don't think Meteorology has advanced that far yet. Ironically what I have found best is local knowledge based in history and observations of the storms that prevail in your particular area.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Jim, you are our resident storm guru
I try to get out in front of the news cycle by using all the info available
Trust me, so does most of the cities along a potential coastal strike, but they don't tell the News either.
The challenge for us boaters and landlubbers is preparing ahead of a strike.
______
NOAA has an experimental Storm surge, shoreline Wave action and strike model now.:clap:

I did take a quick look at your links, but the Saffir-Simpson scale[SS] is used to kick in Federal Programs for relief and follows behind the real storm effects.
_____
Generally speaking ,the first link, is a good estimator of maximum winds, but not from the SS scale, but the true driver of near eye walls, is the mBar difference.;)

The spreadsheet does give you the science, but it is difficult to get the real time data as a storm moves.
The spread sheet will give you a good idea of what is happening in open waters and potential then.
_____
Today NOAA uses satellites passing over a storm, to estimate those pressures, until the real data is obtained by the Hurricane Hunters.:):):) [and ocean buoys]
______
Hurricane Gordon, 2018, was supposed to hit LA head-on, but all of the States LA, MS, and AL declared a state of emergency.
As Gordon neared shoreline, there was a mandatory evacuation of marinas, MS.
But...
The Hurricane Hunters info, showed it only strength on NE quadrant and had changed courses toward MS-AL border.
In PM's, most of the MS and LA , SBO guys did prep the boats for the lower winds expected. [we got a maximum of 45 knots]
Why? It was the Hurricane Hunter's real time data.
BTW the NOAA Surge experimental model for my area predicted 4 feet storm surge, we got maybe 2.5 tops.
I did prepare for 4 feet and had ready lines for 6 feet.
______
It never hurts to try that spreadsheet on the next storm, hopefully in 2028.:)
I do use a personal spreadsheet to calculate ETA's using Lon/Lat, but a few new weather sites offer that now also.

Keep on doing and researching. Sailing is all about the Weather.;)
Jim...

PS: Penascola FL got most wind from Gordon, not even predicated a day before.
 
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