• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Season 2023 Analysis

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,971
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Hurricane Season 2023 REVIEW

The NOAA and CSU forecasts for the 2023 Season were identified to be “Very Active”.
This did not happen.
Our forecast for 2023 was influenced by the developing ENSO currents temperature anomalies observed in early 2023. At that time the temperatures were indicating the strong development of El Niño conditions. This observation did develop during the early Summer months. El Niño conditions in the Pacific affect the upper level winds of summer that circle the Arctic. During summer Upper level wind waves produce strong High Pressure cells that cross the US. These Cells react in 2 ways on the Tropical Storms that form off the North Western African coast.
  1. The High Pressure cells moving off shore at the 30º N latitude (approximately Jacksonville FL) put pressure on Tropical Storms steering them into the Central and North Atlantic.
  2. The Upper level winds tend to shear the tops of Tropical Storms weakening them, limiting their vertical development, decreasing their ACE value (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy
These conditions influenced the formation of Hurricanes from Atlantic Tropical storms. The results can be observed in this graphic, developed by NOAA, of the 2023 Atlantic storm paths.

1714336753596.png

Prepared by: Jim and John
on Weather and Forecasting
April 2024
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,756
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Guess why John and I did this?

The Hurricane 2024 Season is going have a Huge impactful forecast.

Mid May for the National Hurricane Center Forecast 2024.

Hold on to your Captain's seats.

Dammit Jim...
 
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